home > by publication type > daily analysis > Bundling Mideast Policy
Email
| Prepared by: | Lionel Beehner |
|---|
Iraqi President Talabani and Iranian President Ahmadinejad in Tehran. (AP/ISNA, Mehdi Ghasemi)
The momentum in the Middle East is shifting. Not in anyone’s favor per se but toward a U.S. policy addressing the region’s unresolved crises—Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Iran’s nuclear program—as part of a broader Middle East settlement, rather than individually and ad hoc. Elements of this approach have been promoted by British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Counselor to the U.S. State Department Philip Zelikow (PDF), who just stepped down, as well as by leading U.S. policy analysts like CFR President Richard N. Haass. President Bush travels to the region this week to test the waters (AP) and explore what regional diplomatic options are available. Whether or not to engage Syria and Iran is also up in the air, as Syria has opened up diplomatic relations with Baghdad and Iraq’s president visits the Supreme Leader in Tehran to bolster ties (Syria’s president was also invited to participate but declined). On Wednesday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad addressed the "peace-loving and justice-seeking" American people in an open letter, urging them to back a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. Nicholas R. Burns, under secretary of state for political affairs, dismissed the letter as "transparently hypocritical and cynical" (NYT), and Iran analysts agreed that the repressive nature of Iran's government undermines the letter's message.
Part of this shift in strategy may be explained by the diminishing prospects of a new and democratized Middle East, once touted as within reach by the Bush administration. The sectarian violence in Iraq—and U.S. domestic solutions to end the fighting, culminating with next month’s so-called Baker report—have overshadowed the United Nations’ nuclear dealings with Iran. Syria, seen by some as behind the assassination of leading Christian politician Pierre Gemayel, continues to curry influence in Lebanon. And the latest effort to forge an Israeli-Palestinian truce looks no more promising than previous cease-fires. That forms the backdrop to King Abdullah II’s warning (ABC) that three separate civil wars—in Iraq, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories—could erupt in the year ahead. Bush’s visit to Jordan is meant to defuse regional tensions as well as shore up support among Washington’s Arab allies, namely Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, for a political solution to minimize—if not end—the bloodshed in Iraq.
Roping all these seemingly intractable problems into a grand regional conference has a fresh ring to it. But some question whether it makes any of these prickly issues any easier to settle. With the U.S. military overstretched in Iraq and its reputation not high among Muslims in the region, Washington may lack leverage to bring countries like Syria and Iran to play constructive roles in Iraq, to say nothing of Lebanon or Gaza. Experts also warn that many of these conflicts will take years, not months, to resolve. This could provide space for Iran to complete its nuclear fuel cycle and bolster its position of power. Another concern is that Israel has different red lines on Iran from the international community and may take a go-it-alone posture and strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. Experts say the risk of such a strike has grown as a result of Israel’s perceived loss to Iran-backed Hezbollah this summer. Further, several experts say Israel is becoming more involved with separatist Kurdish groups in northwestern Iran in hopes of destabilizing the regime. Seymour M. Hersh, writing in the New Yorker, claims the Pentagon has also developed “covert relationships” with many of Iran’s ethnic groups for similar reasons. This new Backgrounder outlines these ethnic minorities.
Partially what’s at stake is a “hearts and minds [contest] in the Middle East between Iran and the United States,” George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace tells Bernard Gwertzman in a new interview. “It’s that the United States is on the side of Israel and Iran is on the side of the Palestinians and the Muslims,” he says. “Who is going to win that contest?” Yet another theory holds that Iranian power may have peaked last summer and is now on the decline. After all, oil prices are down 20 percent since August, upcoming provincial elections in December may bring more reformists to power, and Iran continues to have technical difficulties getting even one nuclear cascade—or 164 centrifuges—to work properly, let alone 3,000 centrifuges, as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad predicted by March 2007. Finally, a tougher UN resolution with stronger sanctions may be in the offing next month.
Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org.
Explore international efforts to curb nuclear proliferation with a new interactive from CFR's program on International Institutions and Global Governance.
To order Task Force reports, Council Special Reports, and Critical Policy Choices, please call, fax, or order online from our distributor, the Brookings Institution Press: phone +1.800.537.5487, fax +1.410.516.6998.
For information on other reports that are not for sale, or for general publications information, please call +1.212.434.9516 or email publications@cfr.org.
In War of Necessity, War of Choice, Richard N. Haass contrasts the decisions that shaped the conduct of two wars between the United States and Iraq involving the two presidents Bush and Saddam Hussein, and writes an authoritative, personal account of how U.S. foreign policy is made, what it should seek, and how it should be pursued.
In Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know, Julia E. Sweig presents a remarkably accessible portrait of Cuba’s unique place on the world stage over the past fifty years, including its internal politics, its often fraught relationship with the United States, and its shifting relationship with the global community.
As Ray Takeyh shows in Guardians of the Revolution, behind the famous personalities and extremist slogans of Iran is a nation that is far more pragmatic—and complex—than many in the West have been led to believe.
Complete list of CFR Books
This report finds that nuclear weapons will remain a fundamental element of U.S. national security in the near term, and makes recommendations on how to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. deterrent nuclear force, prevent nuclear terrorism, and strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
About Independent Task Forces at CFR
Complete list of Task Force reports
The Canadian oil sands present an important challenge to policymakers: they promise energy security benefits but present climate change problems. Michael A. Levi assesses the energy security and climate change effects of the oil sands and makes recommendations for U.S. policymakers within the context of broader bilateral relations with Canada.
This report explores an important element of the maritime policy regime: the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Author Scott G. Borgerson examines the international negotiations that led to the convention, the history of debates in the United States over whether to join it, and the strategic importance of the oceans for U.S. foreign policy today.
Complete list of Council Special Reports
To request permission to reprint or reuse CFR material, please fill out this permissions request form (PDF), referring to the instructions on page 1.
Copyright 2009 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.