home > by publication type > daily analysis > Tehran on the Hot Seat
Email
| Prepared by: |
|---|
Iranian students show their disapproval of Ahmadinejad at Tehran University. (AP/Hasan Sarbakhshian)
The story of Iran this year has been of a nation on the rise regionally, with clear influence in Lebanon and Iraq and a growing assertiveness about its right to develop nuclear energy. But there has been a break in the narrative at year’s end. Troubling signals for Tehran have suddenly sprouted up in many directions. Despite a continuing surge in revenues from its energy stocks, Iran’s oil minister acknowledged the country was having difficulty funding oil projects because of what the Financial Times calls “de facto financial sanctions.” At the same time, authorities were confirming gains by reformers in municipal elections and impressive vote totals for “moderate conservatives” like former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in the election for members of the Assembly of Experts, which has the power to select the country’s next Supreme Leader (RFE/RL). Other sour notes for the government include a rising student protest movement (NYT) against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and a UN General Assembly vote censuring its human rights record.
But Tehran’s biggest source of concern, despite declarations to the contrary, is a UN resolution passed unanimously (WashPost) by the UN Security Council on December 23. The resolution sanctions the government for failing to heed its demands to suspend its uranium enrichment program, which a number of Western states believe is cover for a weapons program. It bans the import and export of materials and technology used in uranium enrichment, reprocessing, and ballistic missiles. Even though the European states that drafted the resolution have removed provisions related to a Russian-built light-water reactor and travel bans, there are overtones of the UN sanctions on Iraq in the 1990s that have already chilled international investment in Iran. In a new CFR.org Podcast, sanctions expert George A. Lopez of Notre Dame University says that Iran’s inadequate response to a wide range of carrots and sticks offered by negotiators over the past year has frustrated erstwhile backers such as Russia. Even a resolution that amounts to a “slap on the wrist” to Iran should raise worries in Tehran, he says, about Security Council unity. UN sanctions would only intensify concerns over the weak state of the economy, according to this CFR Backgrounder.
One cause for the shift in fortunes appears to be growing exasperation with the performance of Ahmadinejad, such as his recent hosting of a conference of deniers of the Nazi Holocaust. “His radicalism is beginning to rub people the wrong way,” says CFR Senior Fellow Ray Takeyh, pointing to results from the recent elections. He says the Iranian public does not appreciate “the confrontational rhetoric, the anti-Semitism, and the opprobrium that he brings internationally to Iran.” And analyst Kaveh L. Afrasiabi notes that a survey of Russian press signals that “Ahmadinejad's radical brand of politics has made it all but impossible for Russia to resist the combined US-European Union pressure to overcome its objections to sanctions on Iran” (Asia Times).
The Iranian president seems unruffled by the latest trends, again touting the country’s nuclear capabilities in an appearance on December 20 (IRNA), and vowing to continue its nuclear program “with full speed” (NYT) after the passage of UN sanctions. But even if he were to become moderate or marginalized, few experts expect dramatic changes in the country anytime soon, pointing to the considerable powers of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini and the country’s unelected Guardian Council. Iran analyst Karim Sadjadpour of the International Crisis Group writes that Iranian public opinion, especially among its huge youth population, “has never appeared to figure prominently in Khamenei’s consensus-building process” (Washington Quarterly). But Khamenei is aging and said to be ailing, raising the newly elected Assembly of Experts to new prominence (Stratfor).
Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org.
Explore international efforts to curb nuclear proliferation with a new interactive from CFR's program on International Institutions and Global Governance.
To order Task Force reports, Council Special Reports, and Critical Policy Choices, please call, fax, or order online from our distributor, the Brookings Institution Press: phone +1.800.537.5487, fax +1.410.516.6998.
For information on other reports that are not for sale, or for general publications information, please call +1.212.434.9516 or email publications@cfr.org.
In War of Necessity, War of Choice, Richard N. Haass contrasts the decisions that shaped the conduct of two wars between the United States and Iraq involving the two presidents Bush and Saddam Hussein, and writes an authoritative, personal account of how U.S. foreign policy is made, what it should seek, and how it should be pursued.
In Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know, Julia E. Sweig presents a remarkably accessible portrait of Cuba’s unique place on the world stage over the past fifty years, including its internal politics, its often fraught relationship with the United States, and its shifting relationship with the global community.
As Ray Takeyh shows in Guardians of the Revolution, behind the famous personalities and extremist slogans of Iran is a nation that is far more pragmatic—and complex—than many in the West have been led to believe.
Complete list of CFR Books
This report finds that nuclear weapons will remain a fundamental element of U.S. national security in the near term, and makes recommendations on how to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. deterrent nuclear force, prevent nuclear terrorism, and strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
About Independent Task Forces at CFR
Complete list of Task Force reports
The Canadian oil sands present an important challenge to policymakers: they promise energy security benefits but present climate change problems. Michael A. Levi assesses the energy security and climate change effects of the oil sands and makes recommendations for U.S. policymakers within the context of broader bilateral relations with Canada.
This report explores an important element of the maritime policy regime: the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Author Scott G. Borgerson examines the international negotiations that led to the convention, the history of debates in the United States over whether to join it, and the strategic importance of the oceans for U.S. foreign policy today.
Complete list of Council Special Reports
To request permission to reprint or reuse CFR material, please fill out this permissions request form (PDF), referring to the instructions on page 1.
Copyright 2009 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.