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| Author: | Stephanie Hanson |
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January 2, 2007
The conflict in Sudan’s Darfur region increasingly threatens two neighboring countries—Chad and the Central African Republic. The Sudanese government and rebel groups signed a peace agreement in May, but violence in Darfur has escalated since then. Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir has barred deployment of a UN peacekeeping force in Darfur (authorized by UN Security Council Resolution 1706). Meanwhile, the conflict is in a “free fall,” that includes eastern Chad and northern Central African Republic, UN Humanitarian Chief Jan Egeland recently told the Associated Press. “We have kept people alive, but we haven’t protected them,” he said. With the security situation so unstable in both Darfur and eastern Chad, aid groups are starting to withdraw from the region, leaving humanitarian assistance at its lowest since 2003 and 2004.
In March 2005, the United Nations referred the situation in Darfur to the International Criminal Court (ICC) based on its conclusion that the Sudanese government has committed crimes against humanity. The ICC’s chief prosecutor recently reported that he will submit evidence for his first case on Darfur by February 2007. Numerous sources, including Human Rights Watch and the United Nations, corroborate reports that the Sudanese government funds and arms the janjaweed. Darfurians in the refugee camps describe Sudanese military personnel fighting alongside janjaweed militias, as well as the aerial bombing of civilians from warplanes. Khartoum denies these charges and has attempted to block the ICC’s investigations in Darfur.
Khartoum is also implicated in the conflicts unfolding in Chad and the CAR. The Chadian government has accused Khartoum of aiding its rebels. Though initially unsubstantiated, these accusations are supported today by several sources. The Sudanese government demanded Chad’s three rebel groups unite at a November military conference in El Geneina, West Darfur, reports London-based newsletter Africa Confidental, but their differences proved too great. And Chadian rebels have built a base (NYT) on CAR’s northeastern border with Sudan, according to CAR government officials. CAR claims the Sudanese government assists its rebels, which Khartoum denies. But there are “strong indications” Khartoum does support the CAR rebels, says Nyce. She cites reports of artillery driven from Sudan to northern CAR.
As long as Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir continues to refuse a UN peacekeeping force in Darfur, authorized by UN Security Council Resolution 1706, not good. Bashir has successfully resisted UN peacekeepers—and a “hybrid” AU/UN force proposed in November—for nearly six months by appearing to negotiate with international parties and exploiting rifts in the UN Security Council. There are signs that some members of the international community might take a harder line: British Prime Minister Tony Blair has backed imposing a no-fly zone over Sudan, and fifteen former foreign ministers recently proposed targeted sanctions against Sudan in a Financial Times op-ed. But it’s unclear whether these measures, if implemented, would be effective. “No one can guarantee what will work with a regime as tough-minded and inscrutable as Sudan’s, but patient diplomacy and trust in Khartoum’s good faith has been a patent failure,” says an International Crisis Group report. Even if Bashir approves some version of a UN force, some—citing the low spare troop capacity among the United States and European nations—have expressed concern that there may not be enough peacekeepers available. Barring that hurdle, it would still take months for the peacekeepers to arrive on the ground. Jane Holl Lute, UN Assistant Secretary General for Peacekeeping Operations, estimates six months is needed for planning and deployment of such a force.
A December Security Council report suggests the possibility of UN-led peace talks in both Chad and the CAR But some question how effective such talks would be in the absence of movement on Darfur. “As long as the problem of Darfur is not solved, you will not have peace in Ndjamena or Bangui,” Lamine Cisse, the top UN official in the CAR, told the New York Times. “The conflicts are all linked, and solving one requires solving all.”
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