home > by publication type > daily analysis > Morass in Somalia Deepens
Email
| Prepared by: | Stephanie Hanson |
|---|
Somali government troops in a training camp northwest of Baidoa, Somalia. (AP/Jerome Delay)
For the past sixteen years, Somalia has been widely acknowledged—and ignored—as a failed state. Now, the world is finally paying attention to the Horn of Africa. Somalia is a “feral nation,” (LAT) writes former CIA Case Officer Garrett Jones; the “hot new front in the war on terrorism,” according to the Washington Post. Observers warn the battle between Somalia’s Islamic Courts and Ethiopian troops threatens to pull in neighboring countries and Muslim extremists. Ethiopia’s superior military, which enjoys the tacit support of Washington, has forced the Islamists to withdraw from Mogadishu, but analysts are concerned about the ensuing power vacuum (CSMonitor). Some anticipate these radicals will reemerge and wage guerrilla war (LAT), not unlike what the United States faces in Iraq. Others anticipate the return of the warlords who controlled Mogadishu before the rise of the Islamic Courts.
Though publicly it has pushed for the Islamists to return to the negotiating table, the United States has signaled it backs Ethiopia’s offensive in Somalia (NYT). Since gaining control of Mogadishu in May, the Islamic Courts had consolidated power through much of Somalia until their swift rout by Ethiopia this week. Washington fears the country could emerge as a terrorist haven for Islamists with al-Qaeda ties (Reuters).
This fear dictates U.S. policy and undermines efforts to deescalate the crisis, writes Somalia expert Matt Bryden. Earlier this year, the United States supported Somali warlords calling themselves an “anti-terror” coalition, a policy widely criticized for facilitating the rise of the Islamic Courts. Most recently, a U.S.-backed Security Council Resolution, passed at the beginning of December, called for a regional peacekeeping force to protect the transitional government. The resolution was meant to avert war, but instead precipitated it.
Now, the policy options for the United States look bleak. After the ill-fated 1993 U.S. intervention in Somalia—documented in the book and film Black Hawk Down—Washington is loath to take military action, even in the service of nation building. “None of the options for serious nation building in xenophobic, tribal Somalia are politically, financially or morally palatable,” says a Los Angeles Times editorial.
Many experts think that collaborating with other countries in the region to broker peace talks between the Islamists and the transitional government holds the only possibility for stabilizing Somalia. Bryden writes in Kenya’s The Nation, “A lasting peace can only be achieved at the negotiating table, and there is no point in waiting until the guns fall silent to begin preparing.”
Yet multilateralism holds its own drawbacks. A U.S. initiative to support peace in Somalia, the International Somalia Contact Group, has been crippled by the exclusion of key parties such as Kenya, the Arab League, and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, a regional body. Rifts between the United States and Europe on how to address the problem have also hindered efforts toward peace talks (Times of London). European diplomats support engaging with the Islamists leaders, a move the United States opposes. And some countries are more interested in fanning the flames of conflict than quelling them: Ethiopia and Eritrea seek to use Somalia as a proxy battleground, writes Terrence Lyons in a Council Special Report.
Other U.S. options on the table include strengthening the arms embargo against Somalia, freezing the assets of all Somali-owned and operated businesses, and pushing for the withdrawal of all foreign forces. But ultimately, stability in Somalia can only be achieved by Somalis (PDF), according to congressional testimony by the Congressional Research Service’s Ted Dagne. The breakaway region of Somaliland seems to support this notion. After declaring independence in 1991, Somaliland—which remains unrecognized internationally—has achieved stability and economic growth with virtually no external help. Some, including Loyola University’s Peter J. Schraeger, argue that the United States should recognize Somaliland’s independence as a “shining example” of how Islam and democracy “are not mutually exclusive, but rather mutually reinforcing.”
Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org.
To order Task Force reports, Council Special Reports, and Critical Policy Choices, please call, fax, or order online from our distributor, the Brookings Institution Press: phone +1.800.537.5487, fax +1.410.516.6998.
For information on other reports that are not for sale, or for general publications information, please call +1.212.434.9516 or email publications@cfr.org.
Start-Up Nation addresses the trillion-dollar question: How is it that Israel—a country of 7.1 million, only sixty years old, surrounded by enemies— produces more start-up companies than large, peaceful, and stable nations like Japan, China, India, Korea, Canada, and the UK? With the insights of geopolitical experts and investors, the authors examine this nation’s adversity-driven culture to answer this question and offer prescriptions for a global economy on the rebound.
In Forces of Fortune, Vali Nasr presents a paradigm-changing revelation that will transform the understanding of the Muslim world at large. He reveals that there is a vital but unseen rising force in the Islamic world—a new business-minded middle class—that is building a vibrant new Muslim world economy and that holds the key to winning the cold war against Iran and extremists.
In Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know, Julia E. Sweig presents a remarkably accessible portrait of Cuba's unique place on the world stage over the past fifty years, including its internal politics, its often fraught relationship with the United States, and its shifting relationship with the global community.
Complete list of CFR Books
The report of this bipartisan Task Force of distinguished leaders and experts represents a strong consensus on the importance of repairing America's immigration policy. It makes the case that maintaining America's political and economic leadership depends on attracting talented and hard-working immigrants, and on securing the country's borders in a smart, effective, and humane way.
This report finds that nuclear weapons will remain a fundamental element of U.S. national security in the near term, and makes recommendations on how to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. deterrent nuclear force, prevent nuclear terrorism, and strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
About Independent Task Forces at CFR
Complete list of Task Force reports
Identifying international threats and acting on them may be the most difficult job for U.S. policymakers. This report
provides an actionable road map for managing international threats before they erupt into crises and makes a strong case that preventive action is not a luxury but a necessity.
For more than a decade, the United States has mostly watched from the sidelines as Asian countries organize themselves into an alphabet soup of new multilateral groups. In this report, the authors review the relationship between pan-Asian and trans-Pacific institutions and suggest policy guidelines for a new U.S. approach to this new Asian landscape.
Complete list of Council Special Reports
To request permission to reprint or reuse CFR material, please fill out this permissions request form (PDF), referring to the instructions on page 1.
Copyright 2009 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.