home > by publication type > daily analysis > Turkmenistan In Flux
Email
| Author: | Lionel Beehner |
|---|
A Turkmen paints gold stars at the Independence Monument, a day before the inauguration of a new president. (AP Photo/Burhan Ozbilici)
Were Turkmenistan not home to one of the world's largest reserves of oil and gas and one of modern history's most peculiar former dictators, a presidential election (ElectionGuide.org) would probably pass unnoticed (NYT), like the proverbial tree falling in the wood. But energy analysts say political change in this oil-rich country along the Caspian Sea has important foreign policy ramifications for the United States, Russia, and others in the region. Saparmurat Niyazov, Turkmenistan's previous president, ruled with a Stalin-like iron fist to sustain his personality cult: He erected ornate ice palaces in his honor and renamed the month of January (Atlantic) after himself. But his successor, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, is no democrat either. A former dentist and deputy prime minister, he has called democracy a “tender substance” that cannot be imported (RFE/RL) from outside and has promised to keep Turkmenistan on the path set out by his predecessor. In fifteen years of independence, he boasts, Turkmenistan, unlike most of its post-Soviet neighbors, has experienced “no economic or political shocks."
The tradeoff of such relative stability, however, has been a repressive police state with little regard for human rights or religious freedoms (AP). Political opponents and independent journalists are routinely harassed or jailed. Turkmenistan annually ranks near the bottom of Transparency International's corruption index. And Freedom House has slammed the country for restricting social freedoms, such as banning long hair or beards for men.
Yet signs of progress are in the air. Berdymukhammedov has announced a series of steps to modernize Turkmenistan, including enacting agriculture, pension, and education reforms and easing restrictions on the use of internet. But some experts say nothing has changed in Turkmenistan. The February 11 elections were “blatantly falsified” according to the International Crisis Group. More disturbing, a Turkmen dissident of an exiled political party was arrested on February 21 in Bulgaria, where he awaits extradition (RFE/RL) to Turkmenistan.
Most outsiders think of Turkmenistan as an alternative energy provider to Russia and are nervously watching the direction energy policy may take after the election. The trouble for Turkmenistan is the bulk of its Europe-bound oil and gas goes through pipelines in Russia owned by state-run Gazprom. Katherine Hardin of Cambridge Energy Research Associates says in this Backgrounder that short-term disruptions to Europe's energy supplies are unlikely because of Turkmenistan's economic dependency on energy exports. Plus, Russia and Turkmenistan just signed a three-year deal to continue Turkmen gas deliveries through Russia. But a longer-term concern of Moscow is that a new Turkmen regime may seek to diversify its energy routes (Eurasianet) away from Russia. Iran, Ukraine, and the United States, for example, have sought to increase energy ties with Turkmenistan. China, too, given its growing demand for cheaper energy supplies, has sought to attract Turkmen gas, inking a deal with Ashgabat that would allow Beijing to develop Turkmenistan's Iolotan gas fields.
Some opposition leaders worry the West's thirst for cheap energy may water down its criticism of the new Turkmen government, much like it has toward oil-wealthy regimes in Russia and Saudi Arabia. "I just want to believe that the West is not going to try to make a cynical deal based on the formula: gas in exchange for acceptance of dictatorship (PDF)”, Khudayberdy Orazov, head of the “Fatherland” opposition movement, told the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in January.
Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org.
In Termites in the Trading System, Jagdish Bhagwati reveals how the rapid spread of preferential trade agreements endangers the world trading system.
America Between the Wars explores how the decisions and debates of the years between the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Twin Towers shaped the events, arguments, and politics of the world we live in today.
In The Fall and Rise of the Islamic State, Noah Feldman tells the story behind the increasingly popular call for the establishment of the sharia—the law of the traditional Islamic state—in the modern Muslim world.
Complete list of CFR Books.
This report argues that the United States must lead with domestic action on climate change and proposes a U.S. negotiating strategy for a global UN climate agreement that includes commitments from all major economies, while also promoting a less formal Partnership for Climate Cooperation that would focus the world's largest emitters on implementing aggressive emissions reductions.
This Task Force report examines changes in Latin America and in U.S. influence there, while taking account of the region's enduring importance to the United States. The Task Force offers an agenda for U.S. policy toward Latin America and identifies four critical areas that should provide the basis of a new U.S. approach.
About Independent Task Forces at CFR.
This report outlines the nature of the challenges in Pakistan's tribal areas, formulates strategies for addressing those challenges, and distills the strategies into realistic policy proposals worthy of consideration by the incoming administration.
This report analyzes the debate over U.S. use of assurances against torture, explaining the contexts in which they are used, how they can be conveyed, and what they can contain, and recommends a number of ways to respond to criticism so that the United States can continue using assurances.
Complete list of Council Special Reports.
“The Next President:” Richard Holbrooke says the next U.S. president will inherit a more difficult set of international challenges than any predecessor since World War II.
To order Task Force reports, Council Special Reports, and Critical Policy Choices, please call, fax, or order online from our distributor, the Brookings Institution Press: phone +1.800.537.5487, fax +1.410.516.6998.
For information on other reports that are not for sale, or for general publications information, please call +1-212-434-9516 or email publications@cfr.org.
To request permission to reuse Council materials, please email publications@cfr.org or fax +1.212.434.9859.
Please include the complete information of the requested work—author, title, sections/pages to be copied or reprinted, and number of copies to be made—along with a brief description of where and how you would like to reuse the work.
You may also request permission for Council material through Copyright Clearance Center. For more information, please click on the link below.
Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.
