home > by publication type > daily analysis > Al-Qaeda's Resurrection
Email
| Prepared by: | Eben Kaplan |
|---|
U.S. forces failed to capture Osama bin Laden in 2001 in the mountains near Tora Bora. (AP/David Guttenfelder)
Barring any surprises, Osama bin Laden will mark his fiftieth birthday on March 10. Five years ago, it seemed unlikely that the man would survive to celebrate the occasion, at least not outside U.S. custody. Not only does al-Qaeda’s leader remain at large, but he is rallying the troops. Recent reports suggest bin Laden and his top deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri have reestablished their chain of command (NYT) and begun operating new training camps in the northwestern Pakistani region of North Waziristan. The top Taliban leader in southern Afghanistan recently told a British television station that he and bin Laden regularly “share plans” (CNN).
Critics of the Bush administration suggest bin Laden would be long gone had the United States stayed focused on its mission in Afghanistan and not become mired in Iraq, often referring to Afghanistan as “The Forgotten War” (Boston Globe). Though less pointed in its criticism, the Iraq Study Group Report notes “U.S. efforts in Afghanistan have been complicated by the overriding focus of U.S. attention and resources on Iraq.” But administration officials contend that its efforts in Afghanistan must be considered in the context of the myriad dangers facing America. Most recently, J. Michael McConnell, the newly appointed director of national intelligence, told the Senate Armed Services Committee “America confronts a greater diversity (PDF) of threats and challenges than ever before.”
Terrorism remains the top concern, McConnell testified, with al-Qaeda still posing “the greatest threat to U.S. interests.” He claimed global counterterror efforts have decimated the organization’s ranks, killing or capturing three-quarters of its leadership. Though al-Qaeda appears resurgent, McConnell said, the new commanders lack experience (WashPost). Nevertheless, John D. Negroponte, McConnell’s predecessor, warned in January that these leaders had cultivated “active connections” (PDF) to affiliates in Northern Africa, Europe, and the Middle East.
On March 6, NATO and Afghan troops launched a major new offensive (BBC), deploying a force of nearly 5,500 into the southern Helmand province. President Bush announced earlier this year that he will send an additional 3,200 U.S. troops to Afghanistan to help stave off an anticipated Taliban offensive this spring. But the Washington Post criticizes Bush for his inaction on Pakistan, where many of the insurgents gather and train.
For its part, the U.S.-Pakistani partnership causes discomfort on both sides. Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf—who is up for reelection this year—constantly balances U.S. demands for security against a population that sympathizes with the ethnic Pashtuns who live in Pakistan’s most lawless regions. Last September, Musharraf signed a peace treaty with tribal leaders near the Afghan border, which experts say only facilitated cross-border attacks. Others have accused Pakistan’s intelligence services of actively supporting terrorists in the region. But Islamabad does get results; most recently, Pakistani forces arrested a senior Taliban deputy (Counterterrorism Blog) earlier this month. A Online Debate questions whether Pakistan is doing all it should to secure its Afghan border.
What does this all boil down to? Not much, says National Review contributor James S. Robbins, who writes “the notion that anything at all is going according to al-Qaeda’s plan is nonsense.” Terrorism expert Bruce Hoffman disagrees. He says a series of recent attacks and foiled plots all suggest that al-Qaeda “is not on the run but on the march” (LAT). The Boston Globe suggests the reality is a mix of these views: an al-Qaeda that threatens periodic attacks but lacks the freedom of operation that made it the menace it was in 2001.
Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org.
Explore international efforts to curb nuclear proliferation with a new interactive from CFR's program on International Institutions and Global Governance.
To order Task Force reports, Council Special Reports, and Critical Policy Choices, please call, fax, or order online from our distributor, the Brookings Institution Press: phone +1.800.537.5487, fax +1.410.516.6998.
For information on other reports that are not for sale, or for general publications information, please call +1.212.434.9516 or email publications@cfr.org.
In War of Necessity, War of Choice, Richard N. Haass contrasts the decisions that shaped the conduct of two wars between the United States and Iraq involving the two presidents Bush and Saddam Hussein, and writes an authoritative, personal account of how U.S. foreign policy is made, what it should seek, and how it should be pursued.
In Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know, Julia E. Sweig presents a remarkably accessible portrait of Cuba’s unique place on the world stage over the past fifty years, including its internal politics, its often fraught relationship with the United States, and its shifting relationship with the global community.
As Ray Takeyh shows in Guardians of the Revolution, behind the famous personalities and extremist slogans of Iran is a nation that is far more pragmatic—and complex—than many in the West have been led to believe.
Complete list of CFR Books
This report finds that nuclear weapons will remain a fundamental element of U.S. national security in the near term, and makes recommendations on how to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. deterrent nuclear force, prevent nuclear terrorism, and strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
About Independent Task Forces at CFR
Complete list of Task Force reports
The Canadian oil sands present an important challenge to policymakers: they promise energy security benefits but present climate change problems. Michael A. Levi assesses the energy security and climate change effects of the oil sands and makes recommendations for U.S. policymakers within the context of broader bilateral relations with Canada.
This report explores an important element of the maritime policy regime: the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Author Scott G. Borgerson examines the international negotiations that led to the convention, the history of debates in the United States over whether to join it, and the strategic importance of the oceans for U.S. foreign policy today.
Complete list of Council Special Reports
To request permission to reprint or reuse CFR material, please fill out this permissions request form (PDF), referring to the instructions on page 1.
Copyright 2009 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.