home > by publication type > daily analysis > Iran’s Saudi Counterweight
Email
| Prepared by: | Lionel Beehner |
|---|
Despite a recent summit meeting, tensions are brewing between the two regional powers. (AP/Saudi Press Agency)
Iran is not the only ascendant power in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, its regional rival, has also seen its fortunes rise. Thanks to high oil prices, the country’s gross domestic product has doubled to $350 billion over the past four years. Saudi leaders also face easing pressures from Washington on democracy promotion, due to the Bush administration’s troubles democratizing Iraq, not to mention elections in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories that brought Islamist parties to power. Emboldened, the House of Saud has taken “on the long-abandoned mantle of Arab leadership,” argues the Economist, particularly on issues like the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
Sunni Arab fears of a rising Shiite Iran have only strengthened Saudi Arabia’s position. It has also helped lessen the tension Saudis feel toward Israel. With Iran now the “evil empire,” writes Simon Henderson of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, “Israel almost stops being an enemy and perhaps becomes an ally.” On Lebanon, the Saudis have angled for position to ensure that Iranian-backed Hezbollah does not oust Fouad Siniora's government in Beirut. And on the Palestinian issue, Riyadh has spearheaded a new power sharing arrangement that draws new borders (to reflect pre-1967 realities) and addresses the Palestinian refugee situation. Even though the deal may not please Saudi Arabia’s U.S. allies, “the Iranians have had their wings clipped,” says F. Gregory Gause III, in a new interview with CFR.org’s Bernard Gwertzman. The peace proposal will get hashed out at the Arab League summit, hosted by Saudi Arabia, on March 28.
Saudi Arabia’s most pointed actions in the region are targeted at Iran. Saudi leaders have threatened to intervene more directly against Iranian influence in Iraq, saying they will side with the Sunnis (NYT) in the event of a U.S. withdrawal. Earlier this year Riyadh also implicitly targeted Iran’s economy, proposing to boost oil production and thus drive prices down (this Backgrounder examines Tehran’s damaged energy sector). The implications of an intensified Saudi-Iranian duel in the region are grave. As CFR Adjunct Senior Fellow Vali Nasr noted testifying in January before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, the rivalry between the two countries in Afghanistan and South Asia in the 1980s and 1990s “served as the context for radicalization that ultimately led to 9/11.”
Besides Iran’s support of Shiite militias in Iraq, the Saudis remain concerned over Tehran’s determination to develop a nuclear program. “They’re worried this is a return back to Khomeini-ism,” former CFR Fellow Rachel Bronson told CFR.org’s Gwertzman. The Saudis, along with the Egyptians, have dropped hints they would pursue a nuclear program in response to a nuclear-capable Iran.
These heightening sectarian tensions formed the backdrop to the recent summit between Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah. The purpose of the meeting was to address the Sunni-Shiite split and work to resolve areas of disagreement on Iraq (namely, Saudi support for the insurgents and Iranian support for the militias). However, no firm agreements (NYT) materialized from the meeting.
The Saudi-Iranian elbowing for position in the Persian Gulf region also has important policy implications for the United States. CFR Senior Fellow Peter Beinart cautions that “turning U.S. foreign policy over to the Saudis” or allowing Riyadh to serve “as our proxy against Iran” is “perilous,” as it threatens to “enmesh us in a Middle Eastern cold war (TIME), fought along religious lines.”
Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org.
To order Task Force reports, Council Special Reports, and Critical Policy Choices, please call, fax, or order online from our distributor, the Brookings Institution Press: phone +1.800.537.5487, fax +1.410.516.6998.
For information on other reports that are not for sale, or for general publications information, please call +1.212.434.9516 or email publications@cfr.org.
Start-Up Nation addresses the trillion-dollar question: How is it that Israel—a country of 7.1 million, only sixty years old, surrounded by enemies— produces more start-up companies than large, peaceful, and stable nations like Japan, China, India, Korea, Canada, and the UK? With the insights of geopolitical experts and investors, the authors examine this nation’s adversity-driven culture to answer this question and offer prescriptions for a global economy on the rebound.
In Forces of Fortune, Vali Nasr presents a paradigm-changing revelation that will transform the understanding of the Muslim world at large. He reveals that there is a vital but unseen rising force in the Islamic world—a new business-minded middle class—that is building a vibrant new Muslim world economy and that holds the key to winning the cold war against Iran and extremists.
In Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know, Julia E. Sweig presents a remarkably accessible portrait of Cuba's unique place on the world stage over the past fifty years, including its internal politics, its often fraught relationship with the United States, and its shifting relationship with the global community.
Complete list of CFR Books
The report of this bipartisan Task Force of distinguished leaders and experts represents a strong consensus on the importance of repairing America's immigration policy. It makes the case that maintaining America's political and economic leadership depends on attracting talented and hard-working immigrants, and on securing the country's borders in a smart, effective, and humane way.
This report finds that nuclear weapons will remain a fundamental element of U.S. national security in the near term, and makes recommendations on how to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. deterrent nuclear force, prevent nuclear terrorism, and strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
About Independent Task Forces at CFR
Complete list of Task Force reports
Identifying international threats and acting on them may be the most difficult job for U.S. policymakers. This report
provides an actionable road map for managing international threats before they erupt into crises and makes a strong case that preventive action is not a luxury but a necessity.
For more than a decade, the United States has mostly watched from the sidelines as Asian countries organize themselves into an alphabet soup of new multilateral groups. In this report, the authors review the relationship between pan-Asian and trans-Pacific institutions and suggest policy guidelines for a new U.S. approach to this new Asian landscape.
Complete list of Council Special Reports
To request permission to reprint or reuse CFR material, please fill out this permissions request form (PDF), referring to the instructions on page 1.
Copyright 2009 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.