home > by publication type > daily analysis > Zimbabwe’s Meltdown
Email
| Prepared by: |
|---|
Zimbabwean opposition run away from police in Harare, Zimbabwe. (AP/Tsvangirayi Mukwazhi)
At the end of February, Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe celebrated his 83rd birthday with lavish festivities one dissident likened to “throwing a party at a funeral” (Australian). The surreal spectacle seemed to highlight the ineffectuality of political challenges to the president, despite the country’s dire economic straits—its inflation, at some 1,600 percent, is the highest in the world. Yet after a brutal crackdown (CSMonitor) on the opposition, Mugabe’s position no longer looks so secure. International pressure is mounting, and the opposition has grown more vociferous. “Every day Mugabe spends in power makes the situation worse,” writes the Zimbabwe Independent.
Following last week’s arrests and beatings of several opposition leaders, including Morgan Tsvangirai, head of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), activists across Zimbabwe rallied to demand their release (IWPR). In an op-ed in Britain’s Independent, Tsvangirai writes, “Far from killing my spirit, the scars they brutally inflicted on me have reenergized me.” But Mugabe’s forces responded with more brutality, severely beating (SAPA) the MDC’s public information officer as he was preparing to make a flight to Brussels.
Many Zimbabweans and international observers say the MDC cannot effectively challenge Mugabe’s rule alone. In a CFR.org Podcast, Zimbabwean journalist Peta Thornycroft says the MDC is so weak that in Zimbabwe, “the economy is the opposition.” She argues that change will have to come from dissenters within Mugabe’s ZANU-PF party.
There are signs that senior officials within ZANU-PF—whose business interests have been hit by the economic crisis—are pushing Mugabe to step down. “The desire to remove Mugabe within the year provides a rare rallying point that cuts across partisan affiliations, and ethnic and regional identities,” writes the International Crisis Group in a new report that suggests conditions are ripe for political change. This Backgrounder provides historical background to Zimbabwe’s current economic and political crisis.
Mugabe’s attacks on the opposition sparked renewed condemnation from the international community and promises of renewed pressure. The United States is considering new sanctions, and Britain has called on the UN Security Council to take up (VOA) the issue. However, European Union and United Nations officials are skeptical that new sanctions would have any effect. The BBC takes a look at what Zimbabwean bloggers are saying about the recent international attention on their country.
Within Africa, where leaders have long been loath to criticize Mugabe, pressure is also mounting. He “enjoys a great deal of support among rank-and-file Africans because he was a liberation leader,” says CFR’s Princeton Lyman. Yet the African Union chairman admitted the situation is “very embarrassing” (AP), and the South African Development Community will meet on March 26 and 27 to discuss the situation (SABC News). South Africa has substantial leverage over Harare, in part because it provides most of Zimbabwe’s electrical power. But it has largely avoided taking a stand against Mugabe, instead following a path of quiet diplomacy. While some charge this is due to South African President Thabo Mbeki’s friendship with Mugabe, Lyman says this explanation is incorrect. “Thabo Mbeki has very little respect for the opposition party in Zimbabwe,” he says.
Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org.
In Termites in the Trading System, Jagdish Bhagwati reveals how the rapid spread of preferential trade agreements endangers the world trading system.
America Between the Wars explores how the decisions and debates of the years between the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Twin Towers shaped the events, arguments, and politics of the world we live in today.
In The Fall and Rise of the Islamic State, Noah Feldman tells the story behind the increasingly popular call for the establishment of the sharia—the law of the traditional Islamic state—in the modern Muslim world.
Complete list of CFR Books.
This report argues that the United States must lead with domestic action on climate change and proposes a U.S. negotiating strategy for a global UN climate agreement that includes commitments from all major economies, while also promoting a less formal Partnership for Climate Cooperation that would focus the world's largest emitters on implementing aggressive emissions reductions.
This Task Force report examines changes in Latin America and in U.S. influence there, while taking account of the region's enduring importance to the United States. The Task Force offers an agenda for U.S. policy toward Latin America and identifies four critical areas that should provide the basis of a new U.S. approach.
About Independent Task Forces at CFR.
This report outlines the nature of the challenges in Pakistan's tribal areas, formulates strategies for addressing those challenges, and distills the strategies into realistic policy proposals worthy of consideration by the incoming administration.
This report analyzes the debate over U.S. use of assurances against torture, explaining the contexts in which they are used, how they can be conveyed, and what they can contain, and recommends a number of ways to respond to criticism so that the United States can continue using assurances.
Complete list of Council Special Reports.
“The Next President:” Richard Holbrooke says the next U.S. president will inherit a more difficult set of international challenges than any predecessor since World War II.
To order Task Force reports, Council Special Reports, and Critical Policy Choices, please call, fax, or order online from our distributor, the Brookings Institution Press: phone +1.800.537.5487, fax +1.410.516.6998.
For information on other reports that are not for sale, or for general publications information, please call +1-212-434-9516 or email publications@cfr.org.
To request permission to reuse Council materials, please email publications@cfr.org or fax +1.212.434.9859.
Please include the complete information of the requested work—author, title, sections/pages to be copied or reprinted, and number of copies to be made—along with a brief description of where and how you would like to reuse the work.
You may also request permission for Council material through Copyright Clearance Center. For more information, please click on the link below.
Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.
