home > by publication type > daily analysis > Crunch Time for Trade
Email
| Prepared by: | Lee Hudson Teslik |
|---|
Media workers in Seoul rallied against a proposed U.S.-South Korea trade deal. (AP Photo/ Lee Jin-man)
A bilateral trade agreement with South Korea hangs in the balance as U.S. free trade negotiations arrive at their eleventh hour (CQ) before a March 31 deadline. The deadline is both symbolic and statutory: President Bush’s fast track trade promotion authority (TPA), which allows him to negotiate trade deals independent of Congress, doesn’t expire until June 30. But passing a new trade deal before TPA expires requires the president to put Congress on notice by March 31.
The administration also hopes to pass deals with Panama, Peru, and Colombia, but these pacts pale in economic potential compared to the South Korea agreement. Even if targeted liberalizations are watered down in the process of negotiations, the deal would still be the biggest U.S. pact since the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement and South Korea’s most extensive trade deal ever. As the final days of negotiations neared, analysts expressed optimism that the passage of a deal was increasingly likely (Reuters) as the two sides pushed through obstacles on protected goods including rice and automobiles. But mid-Friday, the U.S. tone turned darker and officials said talks were "not going well" (FT).
The deal has its enemies. It sparked protests (Yonhap) this week in Seoul, and three South Korean lawmakers held a highly publicized hunger strike. The negotiations also drew criticism from some U.S. companies, including Chevron, which seeks tougher investor protections (MarketWatch).
The proposed deals with Panama, Colombia, and Peru, have already been negotiated but have not yet received congressional approval. Reuters notes that a number of congressional Democrats are prickly about elements of these agreements—most specifically that they do not safeguard U.S. labor rights.
Congress worked this week to narrow partisan differences through what the U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab praised as a “good faith dialogue” (FT). Congressional Democrats on March 28 unveiled a proposal saying they would pass trade deals that include environmental and labor protections and allow trading partners to make generic copies (IHT) of patented U.S. pharmaceuticals. Both labor groups and the Bush administration tacitly praised elements of the proposal.
However refreshing the cooperative effort to pass a deal might be, experts say the backdrop of President Bush losing his trade promotion authority casts an uncertain shadow on the future of U.S. trade negotiations. As this briefing by the Business Roundtable explains, TPA is a critical tool because it bypasses the bureaucratic quagmire of congressional markups and allows the President to present trade agreements to Congress in final form, for a yes-or-no vote. Without this authority, experts say, multilateral deals like the ones targeted by the Doha round of trade negotiations could become practically impossible to pass.
Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org.
To order Task Force reports, Council Special Reports, and Critical Policy Choices, please call, fax, or order online from our distributor, the Brookings Institution Press: phone +1.800.537.5487, fax +1.410.516.6998.
For information on other reports that are not for sale, or for general publications information, please call +1.212.434.9516 or email publications@cfr.org.
Start-Up Nation addresses the trillion-dollar question: How is it that Israel—a country of 7.1 million, only sixty years old, surrounded by enemies— produces more start-up companies than large, peaceful, and stable nations like Japan, China, India, Korea, Canada, and the UK? With the insights of geopolitical experts and investors, the authors examine this nation’s adversity-driven culture to answer this question and offer prescriptions for a global economy on the rebound.
In Forces of Fortune, Vali Nasr presents a paradigm-changing revelation that will transform the understanding of the Muslim world at large. He reveals that there is a vital but unseen rising force in the Islamic world—a new business-minded middle class—that is building a vibrant new Muslim world economy and that holds the key to winning the cold war against Iran and extremists.
In Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know, Julia E. Sweig presents a remarkably accessible portrait of Cuba's unique place on the world stage over the past fifty years, including its internal politics, its often fraught relationship with the United States, and its shifting relationship with the global community.
Complete list of CFR Books
The report of this bipartisan Task Force of distinguished leaders and experts represents a strong consensus on the importance of repairing America's immigration policy. It makes the case that maintaining America's political and economic leadership depends on attracting talented and hard-working immigrants, and on securing the country's borders in a smart, effective, and humane way.
This report finds that nuclear weapons will remain a fundamental element of U.S. national security in the near term, and makes recommendations on how to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. deterrent nuclear force, prevent nuclear terrorism, and strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
About Independent Task Forces at CFR
Complete list of Task Force reports
Identifying international threats and acting on them may be the most difficult job for U.S. policymakers. This report
provides an actionable road map for managing international threats before they erupt into crises and makes a strong case that preventive action is not a luxury but a necessity.
For more than a decade, the United States has mostly watched from the sidelines as Asian countries organize themselves into an alphabet soup of new multilateral groups. In this report, the authors review the relationship between pan-Asian and trans-Pacific institutions and suggest policy guidelines for a new U.S. approach to this new Asian landscape.
Complete list of Council Special Reports
To request permission to reprint or reuse CFR material, please fill out this permissions request form (PDF), referring to the instructions on page 1.
Copyright 2009 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.