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| Author: | David Makovsky, Director, Project on the Middle East Peace Process, Washington Institute for Near East Policy |
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May 2, 2007
PolicyWatch #1225
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| Olmert After Winograd: A Battle for Survival |
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By David Makovsky
May 2, 2007
The just-released Winograd Report, an investigation of Israeli decisionmaking in the 2006 summer war with Hizballah, has put Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in a battle for survival. Today, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni publicly called for Olmert's dismissal. Will the prime minister's tenure last beyond this growing crisis?
Background
The 150-page report (not yet released in English) is the most thorough analysis of Israeli national security decisionmaking ever carried out by an Israeli review panel. Led by retired judge Eliyahu Winograd, the panel's account of the first five days of the war is filled with footnotes, direct quotes from cabinet meetings, and excerpts from the subsequent testimony of policymakers and senior military officials. The report singles out Olmert, Defense Minister Amir Peretz, and former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff Dan Halutz for "severe failures," concluding that their decisions about launching the offensive in Lebanon were hasty and thus irresponsible, with objectives both undefined and unattainable.
Challenges Facing Olmert
The publication of the report creates or exacerbates a number of serious challenges to Olmert's future as prime minister.
Esteemed panel, sweeping conclusions. Olmert cannot charge that the Winograd panel was biased against him, as his cabinet named its five members and issued its terms of reference. At the time, he viewed the panel as a preferable alternative to a full-fledged commission headed by a justice of the Israeli Supreme Court. Yet, the panel's critique of his administration's performance during the war -- and its decision to go to war in the first place -- is so sweeping and bereft of even qualified praise that he now has little support to muster. In August, additional findings will be released regarding some of the most controversial aspects of the war. The panel's asserted right to recommend resignations is being widely interpreted in Israel as an indication that the worst is yet to come.
Lack of public support. Even before the report was issued, Olmert's favorability rating was in the single digits. Apart from the war, much of the public anger toward Olmert has been due to swirling allegations of corruption that do not figure in the report and remain in the investigation phase. According to a Dialog poll released today by Haaretz, 68 percent of the Israeli public now wants Olmert to resign, while an estimated 74 percent wants Peretz to resign; these figures have been stable since the end of the war last summer. Indeed, riding out the political storm will not be easy. Labor Minister Eitan Cabel resigned yesterday, and three members of Olmert's Kadima Party urged the prime minister to step down as well. A mass demonstration in Tel Aviv calling for his dismissal is planned for tomorrow.
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