home > by publication type > daily analysis > Confession Time in Iran
Email
| Prepared by: |
|---|
Iranian state-run television footage of Haleh Esfandiari. (AP Images/IRIB via AP Television).
Haleh Esfandiari of the Woodrow Wilson Center describes herself as a link in a chain of civil society groups intended to “shake the system” in Iran. Kian Tajbakhsh, an urban planning consultant for the Open Society Institute, talks about his role in creating a “rift between the rulers and the people” in Iran. Academic Ramin Jahanbaglou says straightaway his activities “served the interests of Iran’s enemies.” The three civil society activists were featured in an Iranian TV program on July 18 and 19. Their taped “confessions”—Esfandiari and Tajbakhsh remain held incommunicado—mark a new phase in the Iranian regime’s offensive to weaken internal voices for change and to make a case for a further crackdown on allegedly treasonous behavior.
Though some Iranian moderates criticized the TV broadcasts, authorities expressed satisfaction they had revealed U.S. intentions to overturn the government (RFE/RL). The move against reformists comes amid what the Economist calls a “white” coup. The magazine says Iran’s unelected power centers, like bodies affiliated with the military, are steadily rolling back reforms and reacting against Western influences that have helped make the country’s civil society one of the most robust in the region.
It is also a time of retrenchment against international pressure to suspend Iran’s uranium enrichment, seen in the West as a cover for an atomic weapons program. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on July 25 repeated vows that Iran will never give up pursuit of a nuclear energy program, adding: “Acceptance of Iran’s legal rights is an inevitable end (IRNA)” to Iran’s nuclear case.
But modest UN sanctions, combined with a U.S. campaign to deter investment in Iran, are believed to be having an impact. A new move by U.S. pension funds (WSJ) could affect billions of dollars in investment and further compound the dysfunction in Iran’s oil sector. Mark Fitzpatrick, a nonproliferation expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, sees a further hardening of views (IHT) toward Iran on the UN Security Council ahead of talks on a new round of sanctions. In an Online Debate, Jake Colvin of the National Foreign Trade Council says sanctions have a poor record but Simon Cox of the Economist says the quirks of the Iranian economy make the country vulnerable to sanctions.
Many experts on Iran still see expanded talks with the United States as the best way of inducing Tehran to alter its posture on its nuclear program and other regional activities. Jeremi Suri of the University of Wisconsin-Madison sees hope in the improved relations (BosGlobe) that followed the opening of dialogue between Washington and Beijing in the early 1970s. Michael McFaul and Abbas Milani of the Hoover Institution urge “unconditional negotiations about everything” and say U.S. sanctions offer valuable leverage (Hoover Digest).
Few are under the illusion that such a dialogue will be easy. The second round of U.S.-Iran talks on Iraq produced a deal to set up a special panel to explore security measures but also involved recriminations from both sides about the other’s motives in Iraq. Iranian dissident Akbar Ganji, a strong critic of U.S. military threats toward Iran but a supporter of sanctions, argues the long process of improving Iranian behavior will involve a “fundamental reorientation of prevailing American policy discourse about the Middle East” (Boston Review).
Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org.
Explore international efforts to curb nuclear proliferation with a new interactive from CFR's program on International Institutions and Global Governance.
To order Task Force reports, Council Special Reports, and Critical Policy Choices, please call, fax, or order online from our distributor, the Brookings Institution Press: phone +1.800.537.5487, fax +1.410.516.6998.
For information on other reports that are not for sale, or for general publications information, please call +1.212.434.9516 or email publications@cfr.org.
In War of Necessity, War of Choice, Richard N. Haass contrasts the decisions that shaped the conduct of two wars between the United States and Iraq involving the two presidents Bush and Saddam Hussein, and writes an authoritative, personal account of how U.S. foreign policy is made, what it should seek, and how it should be pursued.
In Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know, Julia E. Sweig presents a remarkably accessible portrait of Cuba’s unique place on the world stage over the past fifty years, including its internal politics, its often fraught relationship with the United States, and its shifting relationship with the global community.
As Ray Takeyh shows in Guardians of the Revolution, behind the famous personalities and extremist slogans of Iran is a nation that is far more pragmatic—and complex—than many in the West have been led to believe.
Complete list of CFR Books
This report finds that nuclear weapons will remain a fundamental element of U.S. national security in the near term, and makes recommendations on how to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. deterrent nuclear force, prevent nuclear terrorism, and strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
About Independent Task Forces at CFR
Complete list of Task Force reports
The Canadian oil sands present an important challenge to policymakers: they promise energy security benefits but present climate change problems. Michael A. Levi assesses the energy security and climate change effects of the oil sands and makes recommendations for U.S. policymakers within the context of broader bilateral relations with Canada.
This report explores an important element of the maritime policy regime: the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Author Scott G. Borgerson examines the international negotiations that led to the convention, the history of debates in the United States over whether to join it, and the strategic importance of the oceans for U.S. foreign policy today.
Complete list of Council Special Reports
To request permission to reprint or reuse CFR material, please fill out this permissions request form (PDF), referring to the instructions on page 1.
Copyright 2009 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.