Efforts to forge alliances between collation troops and Sunni tribes in Iraq have created localized pockets of security, experts say, and the approach is likely to be a centerpiece of U.S. Commander Lt. Gen. David Petraeus’ testimony to Congress on September 10 and 11. Army Col. Michael Meese, head of Social Sciences at West Point and an advisor to Petraeus, says violence in Iraq is down due to the cooperation between U.S. soldiers and local tribes. But he warns security gains would be lost in the event of a “non-conditions-based withdrawal.”

Additionally, this localized approach to security has implications for national reconciliation, Meese says. As provincial conditions improve, politicians in Baghdad are being compelled to react. “This local turning is forcing demands on the national government, and that’s leading to the national government starting to do some of their own reconciliation,” the colonel says. “Even if it is not reconciliation and the de-Baathification law and the provisional powers law and that sort of thing, that meets the criteria of the benchmarks, it is a slow step in the right direction.”