home > by publication type > daily analysis > After Musharraf Victory, Rough Ride Remains
Email
| Author: |
|---|
Supporters of a Pakistani opposition party burn the portrait of President Gen. Pervez Musharraf. (AP Images/K M Chaudary)
Pakistan’s October 6 presidential elections, the focus of furious political jockeying in the last few weeks, held little suspense. Despite serious challenges to his authority this year, Gen. Pervez Musharraf easily won a new term (BBC) from parliament and provincial assemblies dominated by ruling parties. But the vote was just the first step in a complicated process aimed at sorting out the country’s leadership in the months ahead. That process will involve a Supreme Court ruling on the legality (BBC) of Musharraf's candidacy; the court threatened on the eve of elections to retroactively label it illegal if Musharraf refuses to shed his military leadership role. Also just before the voting began, Musharraf signed a “reconciliation ordinance” that drops corruption charges (CNN) against former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and sets the stage for a power-sharing arrangement with her.
To protect his future interests, the general named a loyalist, Lt. Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani, the former chief of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy service, to succeed him as the nation’s top military officer. Musharraf’s plan to shed his military role did not come easily, since he derives much of his authority from the post. But in Kiyani, Pakistan gains a skilled commander at a time of demoralization in the army, and a staunch supporter of Musharraf (Newsweek Int'l).
But a Musharraf victory, analysts warn, does not necessarily translate to stability. The army is struggling in its fight against al-Qaeda and Taliban forces, who have aggressively expanded their influence and operations in the tribal and border areas, pushing large parts of the country beyond government control (WashPost). Pakistan’s army, like its population, is deeply divided over the “war on terror,” and analysts see recent incidents of mass army surrenders to smaller groups of militants as a sign that the military will not fight (NewKerala.com) an internal war on behalf of what many of its officers view as Washington’s interests. “This is not our war; Taliban, al-Qaeda are not criminals in our country,” a major from the Pakistani army told the Atlantic. Selig S. Harrison, an Asia expert at the Center for International Policy, warns of a radical “Pashtunistan” (IHT) should events deteriorate further. Others, citing the nuclear-armed country's miserable educational system, its faltering financial institutions (Bloomberg), and an economy which can't keep pace (PDF) with population growth, fear worse.
Unpopular views of the war on terror, already rampant in Pakistan’s ISI, which helped create and fuel the Taliban movement during the 1990s, may be even more widely held among the general public. A new survey (PDF) conducted by Washington-based research institute Terror Free Tomorrow shows that 46 percent of Pakistanis hold a favorable view of Osama Bin Laden. Musharraf and United States remain very unpopular in the country.
Bhutto scores highest in the popularity poll (with 63 percent favorable), and analysts assume (ISN) Washington sees her as the best way to secure a smooth transition to democracy. In this Online Debate, Pakistani analyst Moeed Yusuf argues that, similar to Musharraf, Bhutto has been rallying U.S. support by posing herself as the only hope to save Pakistan from extremists. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters this week the United States regards this election as pivotal in terms of Pakistan’s future but neither he nor other U.S. officials have openly discussed the Musharraf-Bhutto talks.
Still, Pakistanis see Washington’s overt support for Musharraf and the Pakistani army in a different light. Pakistani nuclear physicist Pervez Hoodbhoy sums it up in Foreign Policy: “All countries have armies, but in Pakistan things are reversed. Here, it is the Army that has a country.”
A new report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies notes that, with the exception of earthquake relief in 2005, most of the $10 billion in American aid to Pakistan since 2001 has been directed towards short-term counterterrorism objectives. The report advocates a redefined U.S. strategy where Washington pursues a broader and diversified relationship with various stakeholders including civil society and the private sector in Pakistan.
Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org.
Explore international efforts to curb nuclear proliferation with a new interactive from CFR's program on International Institutions and Global Governance.
To order Task Force reports, Council Special Reports, and Critical Policy Choices, please call, fax, or order online from our distributor, the Brookings Institution Press: phone +1.800.537.5487, fax +1.410.516.6998.
For information on other reports that are not for sale, or for general publications information, please call +1.212.434.9516 or email publications@cfr.org.
In War of Necessity, War of Choice, Richard N. Haass contrasts the decisions that shaped the conduct of two wars between the United States and Iraq involving the two presidents Bush and Saddam Hussein, and writes an authoritative, personal account of how U.S. foreign policy is made, what it should seek, and how it should be pursued.
In Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know, Julia E. Sweig presents a remarkably accessible portrait of Cuba’s unique place on the world stage over the past fifty years, including its internal politics, its often fraught relationship with the United States, and its shifting relationship with the global community.
As Ray Takeyh shows in Guardians of the Revolution, behind the famous personalities and extremist slogans of Iran is a nation that is far more pragmatic—and complex—than many in the West have been led to believe.
Complete list of CFR Books
This report finds that nuclear weapons will remain a fundamental element of U.S. national security in the near term, and makes recommendations on how to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. deterrent nuclear force, prevent nuclear terrorism, and strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
About Independent Task Forces at CFR
Complete list of Task Force reports
The Canadian oil sands present an important challenge to policymakers: they promise energy security benefits but present climate change problems. Michael A. Levi assesses the energy security and climate change effects of the oil sands and makes recommendations for U.S. policymakers within the context of broader bilateral relations with Canada.
This report explores an important element of the maritime policy regime: the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Author Scott G. Borgerson examines the international negotiations that led to the convention, the history of debates in the United States over whether to join it, and the strategic importance of the oceans for U.S. foreign policy today.
Complete list of Council Special Reports
To request permission to reprint or reuse CFR material, please fill out this permissions request form (PDF), referring to the instructions on page 1.
Copyright 2009 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.