home > by publication type > daily analysis > If Turkey Invades
Email
| Author: | Lee Hudson Teslik |
|---|
Turkish troops ready and waiting on the Iraqi border. (AP Images/Kadir Konuksever)
Turkey removed a major legislative hurdle blocking an invasion into northern Iraq with an October 18 parliamentary vote authorizing raids (Turkish Daily News). Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan cautioned that the vote would not necessarily translate to an invasion, but analysts did not seem too reassured, particularly after an ambush (BBC) of Turkish troops by Kurdish separatists incited crisis talks in Ankara on October 21. While U.S. and Iraqi officials alike warn Turkey not to invade, CFR’s Steven A. Cook says in a podcast that a controversial vote by a U.S. congressional panel, deeming the slaughter of Armenians by Ottoman Turks in World War I a “genocide,” may have given Turkey the political catalyst needed to launch an invasion. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice responded to the ambush by asking Erdogan to hold off for a few days before launching any ground attacks, and the New York Times reports Turkish officials agreed to the request. But the pause did not quell the drumbeat of “what ifs,” and analysts focused their attentions on what the fallout might be if Turkey follows through with cross-border raids.
Most experts say the after-effects of an invasion would depend largely on the scale of the attack and how it is carried out. Iraq’s Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari has indicated he prefers limited air attacks (Gulf Daily News) on Kurdish targets to full-on land raids. Iraqi and U.S. leaders say a Turkish ground attack would work to destabilize Iraq’s north, currently one of the less volatile regions in the country. In a recent interview with CFR.org, the Kurdish head of foreign affairs in Iraq expresses hope the issue can be solved politically. The tension is particularly awkward (FT) for the United States, which finds itself stuck between a political ally in Turkey and a tactical ally in Iraq’s Kurds. Given the fragility of the current situation, Iraq’s foreign minister said in a recent statement that the effects of an invasion could ripple (VOA) well beyond northern Iraq, destabilizing the entire region.
Should this happen, one major casualty might be Iraq’s nascent government, which already struggles to keep order in a country fraught with ethnic tension. As a new Backgrounder explains, some U.S. officials are calling for schemes to manage Iraq’s regions separately—though these plans meet a contentious response from many Iraqi leaders. CFR President Emeritus Leslie H. Gelb says in an interview that a federalized Iraqi government remains the best way to “maintain harmony” among Iraq’s sects. Kurds in recent years have been able to mediate between Iraq’s Sunni and Shiite factions, and analysts worry that if they become embroiled in violence, their ability to do this will be compromised.
It remains to be seen whether Turkey will actually invade Iraq, or if authorizing raids simply represents a bargaining chip. Turkey has again called on the United States to seize Kurdish separatist fighters, and U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said U.S. troops need to do more on this front. Iraqi leaders made more forceful statements (LAT) October 24, saying Iraq will “do anything to stop their terrorist activities.” Either way, intense diplomacy has broken out in an effort to stave off bloodshed. On October 19, Kurdish Iraqis held protests (NYT) in an effort to coax Turkey not to attack. Meanwhile, the Economist argues the best hope for preventing a crisis may lie not in getting Turkey to sympathize with Iraqis or Americans, but in getting Ankara to better understand its own interests. “With luck,” the article says, Turkey “will recognize that a full-blown invasion of northern Iraq would damage its interests and further inflame Kurdish separatists.”
Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org.
Explore international efforts to curb nuclear proliferation with a new interactive from CFR's program on International Institutions and Global Governance.
To order Task Force reports, Council Special Reports, and Critical Policy Choices, please call, fax, or order online from our distributor, the Brookings Institution Press: phone +1.800.537.5487, fax +1.410.516.6998.
For information on other reports that are not for sale, or for general publications information, please call +1.212.434.9516 or email publications@cfr.org.
In War of Necessity, War of Choice, Richard N. Haass contrasts the decisions that shaped the conduct of two wars between the United States and Iraq involving the two presidents Bush and Saddam Hussein, and writes an authoritative, personal account of how U.S. foreign policy is made, what it should seek, and how it should be pursued.
In Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know, Julia E. Sweig presents a remarkably accessible portrait of Cuba’s unique place on the world stage over the past fifty years, including its internal politics, its often fraught relationship with the United States, and its shifting relationship with the global community.
As Ray Takeyh shows in Guardians of the Revolution, behind the famous personalities and extremist slogans of Iran is a nation that is far more pragmatic—and complex—than many in the West have been led to believe.
Complete list of CFR Books
This report finds that nuclear weapons will remain a fundamental element of U.S. national security in the near term, and makes recommendations on how to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. deterrent nuclear force, prevent nuclear terrorism, and strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
About Independent Task Forces at CFR
Complete list of Task Force reports
The Canadian oil sands present an important challenge to policymakers: they promise energy security benefits but present climate change problems. Michael A. Levi assesses the energy security and climate change effects of the oil sands and makes recommendations for U.S. policymakers within the context of broader bilateral relations with Canada.
This report explores an important element of the maritime policy regime: the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Author Scott G. Borgerson examines the international negotiations that led to the convention, the history of debates in the United States over whether to join it, and the strategic importance of the oceans for U.S. foreign policy today.
Complete list of Council Special Reports
To request permission to reprint or reuse CFR material, please fill out this permissions request form (PDF), referring to the instructions on page 1.
Copyright 2009 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.