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Voters lined up outside the polling place in Manchester, N.H. on Primary day. (AP Images/Elise Amendola)
One readout from the Iowa caucuses was a deep concern about economic security in the rural state. The “anxieties about globalization are profound” for members of both parties there, said CFR Senior Fellow Peter Beinart after surprisingly big-margin wins by Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) and Republican Mike Huckabee. Victories in New Hampshire by Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) mirrored those concerns. A late USA Today/Gallup poll in the state was typical, showing the economy to be the most important issue for Republicans, followed closely by illegal immigration while the economy closely trailed Iraq as the most important topic for Democrats.
Though small in electoral stature like Iowa, New Hampshire is seen by some as more representative of the country, with what BusinessWeek calls a “globally oriented services-based economy and rapidly growing exurban communities.” So the New Hampshire results will be watched especially closely by strategists plotting the next month’s busy primary campaigns. Eleventh-hour campaigning by candidates such as Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and Huckabee tapped into economic concerns, hitting particularly on rising energy costs. Clinton referred to an “energy crisis” with consequences “for our economy, for our security, for the problem of global warming” (NYT).
Aside from powerful campaign rhetoric about change, the sharper policy contrasts were between Republicans and Democrats than within party ranks. After a campaign marked by infighting over illegal immigration, Republican candidates largely agree on the need to tighten security at the border, as expressed in a January 5 debate in New Hampshire.
In the final Democratic debate before the New Hampshire polls, the candidates squabbled some over the extent of expanding government health care but they all favor such a move. The Democratic frontrunners have also clearly projected a slowdown in free trade agreements, and generally embrace the same ideas on broadening energy alternatives and combating global warming. Outside of economic matters, they generally approve of an early withdrawal of troops from Iraq, just as most Republican candidates, with the exception of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), generally support the troop surge in Iraq.
Differentiating among the candidates for primary voters thus becomes the battle for personal competence that has played out in both parties. In the narrative from the Obama and John Edwards camps on the Democratic side, and Huckabee and Mitt Romney on the Republican side, the political culture in the U.S. capitol is the beast that must be gored. That was a concern also expressed at a recent meeting of leading moderates from both parties who are flirting with backing an independent candidate because of their alarm at the state of partisanship in Washington. “Washington is broken,” said Romney at the January 5 Republican debate. “That was the message coming out of Iowa.”
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