home > by publication type > daily analysis > The Elusive Immigration Vote
Email
| Author: |
|---|
A voter marks his Democrat presidential preference card at the Nevada caucuses on January 19. (AP Images/ Ronda Churchill)
Immigration has been one of the hottest topics in U.S. politics in recent years. But while it remains an important issue (Miami Herald) in the 2008 presidential race, there are already indications it may not be a defining one. A recent opinion survey showed voters evenly split over which party they think is better on the issue. To date, the young election season has provided few conclusive answers about which candidates voters think would best handle immigration reform, including dealing with the estimated twelve million illegal immigrants living in the United States. February 5 may provide a clearer sense of immigration’s role as a swing issue when more than twenty states—including border states California, Arizona, and New Mexico—hold party nominating elections.
Republican Mitt Romney, who won the GOP Nevada caucus by a wide margin, favors a get-tough policy that includes increased deportation of illegal immigrants. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), who backs a path-to-citizenship approach combined with tougher border surveillance, finished third in Nevada behind Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), another illegal immigration hard-liner. GOP voters in Nevada placed immigration just behind the economy in importance, a CNN poll found. In South Carolina, however, McCain performed strongly among voters who said they prefer the deportation route (CNN) and attracted large portions of voters who support a more moderate approach, edging out Republican Mike Huckabee for the win.
Romney also scored well in Michigan’s primary among voters concerned about immigration (AP), according to exit polls. But McCain’s wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina demonstrate “his immigration record is not the insurmountable obstacle it appeared to be,” writes Duncan Currie in the Weekly Standard.
Hispanic voters comprised 8 percent of Republican voters in Nevada compared to 15 percent of Democratic voters (CNN), many of whom went for Nevada caucus winner Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY). If Nevada proves to be a trend for Hispanic voters, Clinton could get a boost over chief rival Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL), but it is unclear how the GOP races will play out. Like McCain, both leading Democratic candidates voted for a recent immigration reform bill that would have included a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.
The country’s economic downturn, now the prevailing issue in the presidential campaign, has added fuel to the immigration debate. Fred Siegel, a contributing editor to the journal of the Manhattan Institute, a U.S.-based think tank, writes that for many voters immigration is a “proxy for globalization.” Princeton economist Alan S. Blinder calls worries over perceived international economic threats a “stop the world” syndrome and says rather than blame globalization (IHT) for job loss and wage inequalities, Americans should be looking at domestic factors like “the failures of public policy.” With anti-immigration activism growing across the country, local communities are taking action to police immigration status in the absence of federal reform, which worries ethnic rights advocates.
Conservative voices, including CFR’s Michael Gerson and the editorial page of the Wall Street Journal, are concerned that Republicans are hurting the party by alienating Hispanics with their hard line against illegal immigrants. A recent report from the Pew Hispanic Center shows Hispanics largely oppose (PDF) some of the proposed enforcement measures including workplace raids and citizenship requirements for driver’s licenses. Among the 1.2 million green card holders (WSJ) that applied for U.S. citizenship last year, the vast majority are Hispanic. The huge jump in citizen applications is in part attributed to high interest in participating in the 2008 election.
Democrats are eyeing gains from Hispanic voters, but even if they lean toward the party, the Hoover Institution’s Victor Davis Hanson warns that Democratic candidates who don’t address the issue adequately could alienate other voters (RealClearPolitics). A Rasmussen Reports poll shows immigration to be an important issue among South Carolina Democrats, who will hold their own primary January 26.
Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org.
To order Task Force reports, Council Special Reports, and Critical Policy Choices, please call, fax, or order online from our distributor, the Brookings Institution Press: phone +1.800.537.5487, fax +1.410.516.6998.
For information on other reports that are not for sale, or for general publications information, please call +1.212.434.9516 or email publications@cfr.org.
Start-Up Nation addresses the trillion-dollar question: How is it that Israel—a country of 7.1 million, only sixty years old, surrounded by enemies— produces more start-up companies than large, peaceful, and stable nations like Japan, China, India, Korea, Canada, and the UK? With the insights of geopolitical experts and investors, the authors examine this nation’s adversity-driven culture to answer this question and offer prescriptions for a global economy on the rebound.
In Forces of Fortune, Vali Nasr presents a paradigm-changing revelation that will transform the understanding of the Muslim world at large. He reveals that there is a vital but unseen rising force in the Islamic world—a new business-minded middle class—that is building a vibrant new Muslim world economy and that holds the key to winning the cold war against Iran and extremists.
In Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know, Julia E. Sweig presents a remarkably accessible portrait of Cuba's unique place on the world stage over the past fifty years, including its internal politics, its often fraught relationship with the United States, and its shifting relationship with the global community.
Complete list of CFR Books
The report of this bipartisan Task Force of distinguished leaders and experts represents a strong consensus on the importance of repairing America's immigration policy. It makes the case that maintaining America's political and economic leadership depends on attracting talented and hard-working immigrants, and on securing the country's borders in a smart, effective, and humane way.
This report finds that nuclear weapons will remain a fundamental element of U.S. national security in the near term, and makes recommendations on how to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. deterrent nuclear force, prevent nuclear terrorism, and strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
About Independent Task Forces at CFR
Complete list of Task Force reports
Identifying international threats and acting on them may be the most difficult job for U.S. policymakers. This report
provides an actionable road map for managing international threats before they erupt into crises and makes a strong case that preventive action is not a luxury but a necessity.
For more than a decade, the United States has mostly watched from the sidelines as Asian countries organize themselves into an alphabet soup of new multilateral groups. In this report, the authors review the relationship between pan-Asian and trans-Pacific institutions and suggest policy guidelines for a new U.S. approach to this new Asian landscape.
Complete list of Council Special Reports
To request permission to reprint or reuse CFR material, please fill out this permissions request form (PDF), referring to the instructions on page 1.
Copyright 2009 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.