Home |
Site Index |
FAQs |
Contact |
RSS
|
Podcast
home > by publication type > backgrounder > Foreign Policy and the 2008 Presidential Nominating Campaigns
Email
| Author: | Toni Johnson, Staff Writer |
|---|
Updated: March 4, 2008
Voters in a majority of U.S. states participating in the 2008 party nominating races have clearly placed economic concerns ahead of the war in Iraq and national security. After the economy, the importance voters have attached to foreign policy issues is a mixed picture, according to exit polls. On the economic front, the races do not appear to be focused solely on domestic concerns. Voters on the campaign trail have signaled negativity toward free trade and globalization, linking them to a loss of higher-paying jobs as well as an influx in illegal immigrants. So far it has been difficult to link this sentiment to voting patterns. After the economy, Republicans tend to split on whether immigration or the Iraq war is more important, while Democrats seem more focused on concerns about the war. Discerning voter preferences on immigration remains complicated, with some conservative Republicans clearly favoring candidates who take a hard line on illegal immigration while moderates, independents, and Hispanics from all ranks in the party approve Sen. John McCain’s moderate stance. Hispanics have played an important role in the Democratic contest, generally supporting Sen. Hillary Clinton. Overall, the candidates have tried to distinguish themselves as the best foreign policy leader for the job, as the Democratic candidates demonstrated before votes in delegate-rich states like Ohio and Texas.
Exit polling of Republican and Democratic voters in most states shows the economy far outweighs any other single issue. After that comes concerns over national security, which lump together terrorism and the Iraq war, followed by immigration and purely domestic issues. Where people live and what party they belong to affects second-and third-ranked choices in polls published by CNN and McClatchy. In surveys that took place in states voting through February 5, the top three issues (CNN) break down for Republicans as follows: the economy followed by national security/Iraq/terrorism or immigration depending on the poll and the state. For Democrats, CNN polling data shows overwhelming concern about the economy followed by Iraq and then healthcare, a primarily domestic issue. Nationwide, a Pew poll published February 28, found that voters favored Democrats over Republicans on making decisions on the war and the economy, but Republicans got the edge on fighting terrorism.
Although the economy is often treated by analysts as purely a domestic issue, voters and politicians have used it to have a discussion on trade and globalization. Some experts say soundings from the campaign trail show protectionist sentiment is spreading. For example, a December 2007 Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll found that close to half the voters in South Carolina, Iowa and New Hampshire rated free-trade agreements as “a bad thing” on both the Democratic and Republican sides a month before their primaries. The Pew poll also noted that those numbers were consistent with views shown in national polls. Some analysts believe the backlash against free trade and globalization helps Democratic candidates who prefer “fair trade,” which amounts to trade with conditions attached, such as mandating labor and wage standards (Fortune).
Analysts say Republican candidate Mitt Romney, who suspended his campaign following a disappointing finish on Super Tuesday, won the Michigan primary in part by promising to save auto-related jobs from the ravages of globalization. But Romney’s economic message did not seem to resonate as much in states like Florida, South Carolina, and Illinois. Those states were won by Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), who did extremely well among voters who listed the economy as their chief concern, according to a poll published by CNN. Analysts note that McCain is a longtime foe of congressional spending bill excess—which may have helped voters identify him as a fiscal conservative (Rocky Mountain News).
Democratic and Republican candidates are significantly divided on the issue of job offshoring. Romney said he would keep jobs in the country by cutting taxes for corporations. Republican hopeful Mike Huckabee, who won five southern states on Super Tuesday, and McCain have also said they would cut corporate taxes. But McCain criticized Romney’s Michigan rhetoric on economic revitalization, saying some jobs “aren’t coming back” to the state. However, both offered policies for education and job retraining to help workers compete in the global economy. Huckabee has said he believes in free trade (SFChron) but would “always insist on fair trade.”
Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) and chief rival Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), on the other hand, have both said they would end corporate subsidies they believe reward companies for sending jobs overseas. Clinton would propose a trade “time out” so that current trade deals could be reworked. Clinton and Obama oppose some pending trade deals, including one with Colombia. Candidates have expressed concern about continuing violence (Reuters) against Colombian labor leaders.
The issue of trade has heated up as the campaign has progressed, with Obama and Clinton taking an increasingly populist tone. Worker advocates say Democrats are right to look more seriously at trade given the plight of U.S. workers, especially those in the manufacturing sector. But some analysts say Democratic rhetoric against trade deals like NAFTA seems less about policy and more about politics.
Both Democratic candidates want to create domestic jobs through green-energy promotion. Both the Democratic candidates and McCain support wage insurance. The program aims to help workers displaced by job loss due to globalization with financial assistance while they are retrained (USNews). McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, said in a Foreign Affairs article last year that he would work to foster more trade liberalization, including using it as method to fight terrorism. So far little analysis has been done on how voters view individual candidates’ trade proposals.
After the economy, Republicans provided pollsters with mixed views on their priority issues. In some states it was immigration and in others either Iraq or national security. When looking at Republican voter responses on Iraq versus terrorism in CNN-published polls, Iraq generally edged out terrorism by a few points. In the CNN poll, Democrats were asked only about Iraq, making comparisons difficult. But, when asked in polls held prior to voting in some Super Tuesday states to rank Iraq and national security, Democratic voters consistently ranked Iraq as the second most important issue, far ahead of national security.
Although illegal immigration ranked a few points higher than Iraq in a few states, when you combine the Iraq war and national security, Republican voters were clearly more concerned about security issues than immigration. In the case of states like Alabama and Arizona, concerns about Iraq and terrorism together outweighed concerns about the economy. Huckabee captured the Alabama race while McCain triumphed in his home state of Arizona.
Although the economy is often treated by analysts as purely a domestic issue, voters and politicians have used it to have a discussion on trade and globalization.
In contests held through Super Tuesday, McCain generally attracted voters concerned about national security and the war, which analysts attribute to his military background and vigorous support of the Bush administration’s surge strategy in Iraq. McCain defeated or tied with Romney among security-minded voters in some states where Romney otherwise polled well, such as Massachusetts and Michigan. But, he also took relatively high percentages of GOP primary voters disapproving of the Iraq war. On the Democratic side, Obama attracted support of voters listing Iraq as a priority in some significant states won by Clinton, such as California, Arizona, Massachusetts, and New Jersey, according to CNN-published polls. Obama has sought to paint Clinton’s 2002 Senate vote to authorize the war in Iraq as a sign of her poor judgment. “I think what the next president has to show is the kind of judgment that will ensure that we are using our military power wisely,” he said in a January debate. Clinton has defended her vote and criticized Bush for the failure of his war policies. Both candidates favor troop withdrawal.
As the campaign has progressed post-Super Tuesday, the remaining candidates debated who would make the most impact on foreign policy and national security. Clinton and McCain tout their experience. For McCain, it is years spent both and as a naval officer and in the Senate, as well as his continuing support for staying in Iraq. For Clinton, it is her time in the White House with her husband as well as her time in the Senate. Meanwhile, the Obama lays claims to what his advisers call “good judgment” (MSNBC), pointing to his opposition to the Iraq war and criticizing the U.S.policy of supporting Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf. Through nearly three-fourths of the state contests, Clinton may win on experience among voters, but they seem equally if not more attracted to Obama’s message of change.
Political analysts speculate that if McCain wins the nomination the focus of the campaign debate will shift to national security (ChiTrib) and Iraq since there is such a considerable difference between his positions and the positions of the Democratic front-runners. Clinton and Obama favor troop withdrawal in the near term while McCain has said he would keep a robust troop presence in Iraq as long as needed. CFR’s Noah Feldman argues that the election is the “one chance” to put issues surrounding the war to the “democratic test.” He says: “Otherwise we will be getting a war policy born of neglect.” McCain criticized Obama’s comment in a February debate that he would bring troops back into Iraq if al-Qaeda attempts to establish a base there. McCain pointed out there is al-Qaeda in Iraq already, to which Obama replied that the group wasn’t there before (CNN) “George Bush and John McCain decided to invade Iraq.”
Analysis of the war’s winning or losing potential for a candidate is mixed and could depend on developments in Iraq as the year progress. Foreign Policy Magazine’s blog says nationally, “many voters have made up their mind about Iraq: They want to leave.” And CFR’s Michael Gerson argues that while McCain’s support of the Iraq surge has helped him regain his prominence in the election, it may not help him win. Gerson says McCain also “will need to engage Democrats on issues from health care to education to poverty.”
Republican voters remain significantly concerned about illegal immigration, especially in western border states such as California and Arizona. Immigration as an issue was nearly equal in importance to the economy in those states, while elsewhere it was nearly tied or slightly ahead of Iraq in CNN Republican voter polls. Among voters who listed illegal immigration as the top concern, Romney did well. However, McCain, who has been criticized by some in the party for supporting reform legislation that would offer a path to citizenship for millions of illegal immigrants, won both California and Arizona handily.
Analysis of the war’s winning or losing potential for a candidate is mixed and could depend on developments in Iraq as the year progresses.
At the same time, while Hispanics voting Republican were expected to show strong support for McCain because of his moderate position on immigration reform, in California he received only 35 percent of the Hispanic vote. He also received a lower percentage of Hispanics voting in Nevada in comparison with Romney, who has supported a policy of deporting illegal immigrants. McCain did receive nearly 70 percent of the Hispanic vote in his home state of Arizona and more than half of Hispanic voters in Florida, including especially strong backing from Cuban-Americans. Such fragmented results make it hard to come to any concrete conclusions about how the issue is resonating among voters.
For Democrats, immigration as an issue is not a top concern, except perhaps among Latino voters. But with the positions of Obama and Clinton so close, it did not seem to be a factor in Hispanic voting patterns. Instead, Clinton performed very well among Hispanics in the West while Obama did well in his home state of Illinois and in Connecticut.
Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org.
In The Fall and Rise of the Islamic State, Noah Feldman tells the story behind the increasingly popular call for the establishment of the sharia—the law of the traditional Islamic state—in the modern Muslim world.
In Regional Monetary Integration, Peter B. Kenen poses an important question: Should various country groups follow the lead of the European Monetary Union and form similar full-fledged monetary unions?
Walter Russell Mead recounts the story of the centuries-long rivalry between the English- speaking peoples and their enemies in God and Gold.
Complete list of CFR Books.
In this POP, Adjunct Fellow Michelle D. Gavin suggests steps the Bush administration could take to promote political and ethnic reconciliation and to restore the viability of Kenya’s governing institutions.
In this paper, Senior Fellow Daniel Markey poses a set of recommendations for the United States to consider in response to Pakistan’s ongoing political crisis.
To address the growing importance of Africa, the Council on Foreign Relations and Foreign Affairs present Beyond Humanitarianism, a collection of recent work that explains underlying trends on the continent and provides an absorbing look at Africa’s emergence as a strategic player on the world stage.
To order Task Force reports, Council Special Reports, and Critical Policy Choices, please call, fax, or order online from our distributor, the Brookings Institution Press: phone +1-800-537-5487, fax +1-410-516-6998.
For information on other reports that are not for sale, or for general publications information, please call +1-212-434-9516 or email publications@cfr.org.
To request permission to reuse Council materials, please email publications@cfr.org or fax +1-212-434-9859.
Please include the complete information of the requested work—author, title, sections/pages to be copied or reprinted, and number of copies to be made—along with a brief description of where and how you would like to reuse the work.
You may also request permission for Council material through Copyright Clearance Center. For more information, please click on the logo below.
Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.
