home > by publication type > daily analysis > Petraeus, Crocker Gird for Assault on the Hill
Email
| Author: |
|---|
Soldiers from the RAF Regiment set up a vehicle checkpoint on a bridge near the outskirts of Basra in December 2007. (AP/Press Association)
When the top U.S. diplomat and chief commander of U.S. forces in Iraq sat side by side on Capitol Hill six months ago, assurances of a speedy U.S. victory in Iraq were absent. Some important things have changed since then. Overall violence is down dramatically (PDF) since June 2007, according to Pentagon statistics. Analysts—Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution, for instance—also see signs of political reconciliation, and 53 percent of Americans now believe the U.S. effort in Iraq will one day succeed (Pew). And yet, when Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker reappear in front of Congress this week, their message will sound strikingly familiar.
With the U.S. war effort in Iraq in its sixth year, progress on the ground remains mixed. The success of an Iraqi tribal revolt, originally dubbed the “Anbar Awakening,” is widely credited with stabilizing once volatile Sunni regions in central and western Iraq. A U.S. military spokesman in Baghdad tells CFR.org more than 95,000 former insurgents and tribesmen have turned their weapons on al-Qaeda in Iraq; they receive three hundred dollars a month for their services. CFR Senior Fellow Stephen Biddle says that the strategy isn’t perfect. “But given the alternatives,” he says, “stabilization from the bottom up may be the least bad option for U.S. policy in 2008.” Others aren’t so sure. CFR Senior Fellow Steven Simon writes in Foreign Affairs that the Anbar model may have brought short-term successes but has done so by stoking the fires of “tribalism, warlordism, and sectarianism.”
There are other red flags. Recent Shiite-on-Shiite clashes in Basra and the capital underscore the fragile nature of U.S. military gains. The Iraqi Army was reportedly unprepared (NYT) for the resistance of anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army, according to senior U.S. military commanders. President Bush declared the Iraqi military’s efforts a “defining moment in the history of a free Iraq.” But reports of Iranian intervention in securing a cease-fire have raised doubts about the government’s control of the country (Salon). TIME magazine reports that despite claims from Baghdad and Washington that Sadr’s militia had splintered, his fighters respond to his orders. This could provide an ominous backdrop to testimony from Petraeus and Crocker: Sadr has called on Iraqis to stage nationwide protests April 9 (al-Jazeera), the anniversary of the fall of Baghdad.
To be sure, civil society in Iraq has improved since the last Petraeus-Crocker update in September 2007. The security situation is the improvement most often cited, but Iraq also has improved ties with its neighbors, including Iran (IHT) and Bahrain (WashPost). Politically, Iraq’s parliament passed an on-time budget, approved an amnesty law, and cleared the way for some former members of Saddam Hussein’s Baath party to return to government, one of eighteen benchmarks established by the Bush administration.
But improvements are met with continued suffering. The contents of a brand new National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, which remains classified but has been described to the New York Times, concludes that security gains remains fragile. For Iraqi civilians the situation is tenuous. The United Nations estimates a total of 2.7 million Iraqis have been displaced within Iraq (PDF) since 2003, the vast majority of them from Baghdad.
Looking past the U.S. troop surge will be the focus of talking points presented by the general and the ambassador. Observers say they expect Petraeus to recommend a pause in troop withdrawals (Reuters) after July, leaving around 140,000 American soldiers in Iraq. Democratic lawmakers want to reframe the political debate (Politico) and focus on how to disengage. As Biddle sees it, the best the United States can do is to change its definition of winning in Iraq. But Terrence K. Kelly, a RAND expert who is a recent Baghdad embassy staffer and former White House official, says “talk of ‘victory’ and similar terms” (PDF) is premature. “We do not know what that means,” Kelly told lawmakers on April 3.
Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org.
Explore international efforts to curb nuclear proliferation with a new interactive from CFR's program on International Institutions and Global Governance.
To order Task Force reports, Council Special Reports, and Critical Policy Choices, please call, fax, or order online from our distributor, the Brookings Institution Press: phone +1.800.537.5487, fax +1.410.516.6998.
For information on other reports that are not for sale, or for general publications information, please call +1.212.434.9516 or email publications@cfr.org.
In War of Necessity, War of Choice, Richard N. Haass contrasts the decisions that shaped the conduct of two wars between the United States and Iraq involving the two presidents Bush and Saddam Hussein, and writes an authoritative, personal account of how U.S. foreign policy is made, what it should seek, and how it should be pursued.
In Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know, Julia E. Sweig presents a remarkably accessible portrait of Cuba’s unique place on the world stage over the past fifty years, including its internal politics, its often fraught relationship with the United States, and its shifting relationship with the global community.
As Ray Takeyh shows in Guardians of the Revolution, behind the famous personalities and extremist slogans of Iran is a nation that is far more pragmatic—and complex—than many in the West have been led to believe.
Complete list of CFR Books
This report finds that nuclear weapons will remain a fundamental element of U.S. national security in the near term, and makes recommendations on how to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. deterrent nuclear force, prevent nuclear terrorism, and strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
About Independent Task Forces at CFR
Complete list of Task Force reports
The Canadian oil sands present an important challenge to policymakers: they promise energy security benefits but present climate change problems. Michael A. Levi assesses the energy security and climate change effects of the oil sands and makes recommendations for U.S. policymakers within the context of broader bilateral relations with Canada.
This report explores an important element of the maritime policy regime: the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Author Scott G. Borgerson examines the international negotiations that led to the convention, the history of debates in the United States over whether to join it, and the strategic importance of the oceans for U.S. foreign policy today.
Complete list of Council Special Reports
To request permission to reprint or reuse CFR material, please fill out this permissions request form (PDF), referring to the instructions on page 1.
Copyright 2009 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.