home > by publication type > daily analysis > Looking for Answers in Lebanon
Email
| Author: | Lee Hudson Teslik |
|---|
Lebanese army soldiers patrol the streets following heavy fighting overnight in the city of Tripoli, Lebanon, May 11, 2008. (AP /Nasser Nasser)
Whether Lebanon veered close to "civil war" this month—a question broached by many newspapers—seems purely academic at this point, and perhaps irrelevant. Beirut settled into a tenuous calm after Lebanon's cabinet conceded (CNN) the immediate demands of Hezbollah. Then, after several days of negotiations, government officials and Hezbollah leaders forged a deal (BBC) aiming toward parliamentary reconciliation. Lebanese politicians cheered the deal—though some experts interpreted it as a second victory for Hezbollah. But beyond the immediate attempt at stabilization, several problems loom, including the country's electoral system and the broad influence of Hezbollah, which many say is backed by Iran's government (Economist).
The apparent breakthrough came following five days of talks in Qatar, brokered by the Arab League, which broke down at least once. On May 20, the Qatari prime minister announced a deal making way for the immediate installation (al-Jazeera) of Lebanon's army leader Michel Suleiman as president, the formation of a unity government, and a ban on the use of weapons in domestic conflict.
In the effort to bring about lasting peace, however, experts don't expect a quick fix. CFR's Mohamad Bazzi, writing in the UAE paper The National, says the arms issue and the question of parliamentary reconciliation fit into a "Gordian Knot" of problems including Lebanon's future relationship with Syria and tensions with various factions at Palestinian refugee camps scattered throughout Lebanon.
Other analysts wonder what it will mean for international affairs if Hezbollah assumes increased authority. A commentary in one Lebanese paper lamented the rise of "Hezbollahstan" (Ya Libnan). Even if the group gains only some power, it remains to be seen how effectively Hezbollah and its longtime enemies will be able to legislate together. Should the political situation break down again, some analysts worry the country may emerge as a place nobody can decisively govern.
For the United States, these issues pose a significant dilemma. Proponents of President Bush's democratization efforts repeatedly cited Lebanon's pro-Western government as a case study of progress and hope. Now the country presents a darker specter. Washington fears a boost for Hezbollah will constitute a victory for Iran, which is widely thought to support the group. Countries like France, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia share U.S. concerns about creeping Iranian regional hegemony.
But U.S. policymakers balance these pressures with a desire not to provoke large-scale unrest in Lebanon, a country many see as a proxy for some of the Middle East's most volatile conflicts. Washington may be hesitant to force its hand on Damascus at a time when Israel and Syria seem to be edging toward a possible peace (FT), a compromise that could provide a way forward in the long-standing efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Nor can Washington necessarily afford an escalation of tensions with Tehran, which holds the capacity to play a major destabilizing role in Iraq. Michael Young, a political analyst based in Beirut, tells CFR.org that Lebanon's conflict reflects a disquieting new "cold war," adding that "things could get a lot worse before they get better."
Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org.
To order Task Force reports, Council Special Reports, and Critical Policy Choices, please call, fax, or order online from our distributor, the Brookings Institution Press: phone +1.800.537.5487, fax +1.410.516.6998.
For information on other reports that are not for sale, or for general publications information, please call +1.212.434.9516 or email publications@cfr.org.
Start-Up Nation addresses the trillion-dollar question: How is it that Israel—a country of 7.1 million, only sixty years old, surrounded by enemies— produces more start-up companies than large, peaceful, and stable nations like Japan, China, India, Korea, Canada, and the UK? With the insights of geopolitical experts and investors, the authors examine this nation’s adversity-driven culture to answer this question and offer prescriptions for a global economy on the rebound.
In Forces of Fortune, Vali Nasr presents a paradigm-changing revelation that will transform the understanding of the Muslim world at large. He reveals that there is a vital but unseen rising force in the Islamic world—a new business-minded middle class—that is building a vibrant new Muslim world economy and that holds the key to winning the cold war against Iran and extremists.
In Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know, Julia E. Sweig presents a remarkably accessible portrait of Cuba's unique place on the world stage over the past fifty years, including its internal politics, its often fraught relationship with the United States, and its shifting relationship with the global community.
Complete list of CFR Books
The report of this bipartisan Task Force of distinguished leaders and experts represents a strong consensus on the importance of repairing America's immigration policy. It makes the case that maintaining America's political and economic leadership depends on attracting talented and hard-working immigrants, and on securing the country's borders in a smart, effective, and humane way.
This report finds that nuclear weapons will remain a fundamental element of U.S. national security in the near term, and makes recommendations on how to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. deterrent nuclear force, prevent nuclear terrorism, and strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
About Independent Task Forces at CFR
Complete list of Task Force reports
Identifying international threats and acting on them may be the most difficult job for U.S. policymakers. This report
provides an actionable road map for managing international threats before they erupt into crises and makes a strong case that preventive action is not a luxury but a necessity.
For more than a decade, the United States has mostly watched from the sidelines as Asian countries organize themselves into an alphabet soup of new multilateral groups. In this report, the authors review the relationship between pan-Asian and trans-Pacific institutions and suggest policy guidelines for a new U.S. approach to this new Asian landscape.
Complete list of Council Special Reports
To request permission to reprint or reuse CFR material, please fill out this permissions request form (PDF), referring to the instructions on page 1.
Copyright 2009 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.