home > by issue > international peace and security > peacekeeping > Iraq Splinters on Security
Email
| Author: |
|---|
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki meets with local government officials in his office in Baghdad on August 1, 2007. (AP/Iraqi Government)
Five years since the fall of Saddam Hussein, factions in Iraq's parliament continue to squabble over oil, borders (UPI), and ballots (CNN). But on at least one important matter—security deals between Washington and Baghdad—Iraqis are increasingly in agreement. Opposition to the pacts is growing across Iraq's sectarian divide, as Sunni lawmakers, Shiite clerics, and some militia leaders have come out against U.S. proposals. Issues separating the sides include what role the United States should play in defending Iraq; its efforts to confront terrorist groups; and legal protections for U.S. troops and contractors.
But it would be an exaggeration to call this a unified Iraqi political front; motivations for challenging the deals are as varied as the factions are diverse. Some Shiite parties appear to be capitalizing on a "growing nationalist backlash" (Abu Muqawama). Former Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, who says the deal would be "humiliating for the Iraqi people" (KUNA), has led a split (al-Hayat) of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Islamic Da'wa Paty, forming his own coalition. Ali al-Adeeb, another Da'wa party leader, contends the proposed agreements would "impair Iraqi sovereignty" (McClatchy) if U.S. demands for basing requirements are met. In the end, growing domestic pressure may force the Maliki government and its principle supporters to seek an extension of the UN mandate (WashPost) that authorizes the U.S. military presence. The White House wanted an inked agreement by the end of July.
Sunni concerns about the deals are more opaque. Kenneth Katzman, a specialist in Middle East affairs with the Congressional Research Service, says some Sunni factions favor a long-term security arrangement with Washington—in part because of assistance Sunni provinces received to fight al-Qaeda in Iraq, as this Backgrounder explains. But Sunni members of the Iraqi parliament have also fanned out across Washington to express frustration with the negotiations. During congressional testimony on June 4, Sunni political leader Khalaf al-Ulayyan, who heads the National Dialogue Council, called for a timetable for U.S. withdrawal to be included in the negotiations. "I believe most Iraqis are interested in a timetable for the withdrawal, which allows time to rebuild the Iraqi forces," said Ulayyan. The Sunni leader and his Shiite colleague, Nadeem al-Jaberi, presented U.S. lawmakers with a letter signed by a cross section (Washington Independent) of Iraq's parliamentarians all making the same claim.
Left to mediate is Prime Minister Maliki, who is walking a diplomatic tightrope between supporters in Washington, Baghdad, and Tehran, which has close ties to the prime minister. Maliki and President Bush signed a "declaration of principles" in November 2007 that broadly outlined the long-term security issues the two leaders aimed to settle. But during a state visit to the Iranian capital on June 8, Maliki made clear he is sensitive to Iranian concerns. Maliki pledged that Iraq would not become a launch pad (Reuters) for an attack on Iran, a vow that did little to comfort (Tehran Times) Iran's hierarchy.
It remains far from certain whether Iraq's politicians will support or reject the security conditions sought by the United States. Ali Allawi, Iraq's former finance minister, writes in the Independent that the only remaining institution with the power to block the agreement—the Najaf religious establishment—thus far has not come out clearly against the deal. Iraqi political analysts tell CFR.org that Shiite opposition may be little more than pandering in advance of provincial elections this fall. CFR Senior Fellow for National Security Studies Max Boot says approaching Iraqi elections are likely contributing to the logjam, but so is "growing Iraqi complacency." Recent Iraqi military successes may have convinced Maliki "he doesn’t need the Americans after all," Boot writes in the Los Angeles Times. For the United States, Iraq's domestic stalemate could significantly alter future military operations in the country. If a deal isn't brokered by the end of the year, Washington could technically be forced to choose between withdrawing or staying in Iraq illegally. But few military scholars expect such a stark choice, even if the Iraqi impasse goes unresolved. Stephen Biddle, CFR's Senior Fellow for Defense Policy, says any number of scenarios can keep U.S. troops in Iraq in medium-term future.
Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org.
CFR offers a variety of email newsletters about up-to-date CFR.org material on what’s happening around the world.
Enter your email address and click 'Go' to subscribe.
CFR Experts are based in CFR’s New York and Washington offices. Each expert's bio page contains his or her contact information, professional and educational history, links to publications and current research, a downloadable one-page biographical narrative, and a high-definition photo.
Identifying international threats and acting on them may be the most difficult job for U.S. policymakers. This report
provides an actionable road map for managing international threats before they erupt into crises and makes a strong case that preventive action is not a luxury but a necessity.
For more than a decade, the United States has mostly watched from the sidelines as Asian countries organize themselves into an alphabet soup of new multilateral groups. In this report, the authors review the relationship between pan-Asian and trans-Pacific institutions and suggest policy guidelines for a new U.S. approach to this new Asian landscape.
Complete list of Council Special Reports
Start-Up Nation addresses the trillion-dollar question: How is it that Israel—a country of 7.1 million, only sixty years old, surrounded by enemies— produces more start-up companies than large, peaceful, and stable nations like Japan, China, India, Korea, Canada, and the UK? With the insights of geopolitical experts and investors, the authors examine this nation’s adversity-driven culture to answer this question and offer prescriptions for a global economy on the rebound.
In Forces of Fortune, Vali Nasr presents a paradigm-changing revelation that will transform the understanding of the Muslim world at large. He reveals that there is a vital but unseen rising force in the Islamic world—a new business-minded middle class—that is building a vibrant new Muslim world economy and that holds the key to winning the cold war against Iran and extremists.
In Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know, Julia E. Sweig presents a remarkably accessible portrait of Cuba's unique place on the world stage over the past fifty years, including its internal politics, its often fraught relationship with the United States, and its shifting relationship with the global community.
Complete list of CFR Books
Copyright 2009 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.
Global Economy 