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| Authors: | J. Bruce Llewellyn Camille Chaix |
|---|
September 20, 2007
Many clients have asked for our view on the argument that, even assuming that scientists' projections of the likely effects of climate change are broadly correct, the effects will be felt only slowly, with little effect on asset prices over mostinvestors' time horizons.
We judge this argument as flawed, for three, linked, reasons. First, markets anticipate even slow-moving variables, such asclimate change. Second, policy made in the name of climate change could have an almost immediate, up-front effect on asset prices. And third, markets anticipate policy itself. In this way, expected future effects of climate change become brought right forward to the present.
Fundamentally, the economic case for considering climate change ultimately depends on thescience. Our judgement is thatthe science will increasingly be seen as broadly correct; that this view will be progressively accepted by the weight ofmarket opinion; and that, while the adjustment of asset prices has begun, full adjustment will take years, rather than months.
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Start-Up Nation addresses the trillion-dollar question: How is it that Israel—a country of 7.1 million, only sixty years old, surrounded by enemies— produces more start-up companies than large, peaceful, and stable nations like Japan, China, India, Korea, Canada, and the UK? With the insights of geopolitical experts and investors, the authors examine this nation’s adversity-driven culture to answer this question and offer prescriptions for a global economy on the rebound.
In Forces of Fortune, Vali Nasr presents a paradigm-changing revelation that will transform the understanding of the Muslim world at large. He reveals that there is a vital but unseen rising force in the Islamic world—a new business-minded middle class—that is building a vibrant new Muslim world economy and that holds the key to winning the cold war against Iran and extremists.
In Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know, Julia E. Sweig presents a remarkably accessible portrait of Cuba's unique place on the world stage over the past fifty years, including its internal politics, its often fraught relationship with the United States, and its shifting relationship with the global community.
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