home > by publication type > must reads > Belfer Center: A Proposal for the Design of the Successor to the Kyoto Protocol
Email
| Authors: | Larry Karp Jinhua Zhao |
|---|
September 26, 2008
We recommend that the successor to the Kyoto Protocol (“Kyoto II”) impose mandatory ceilings on rich countries’ greenhouse gas emissions and that it promote the participation of developing countries. Our proposal requires two major changes to the current Protocol, the use of an escape clause and the potential use of trade restrictions. The agreement must be seen as fair to developing nations. These countries will be subject to disciplines that prevent them from undermining the agreement in the short run, and they will be required to accept the principle that they will have to reduce emissions in the longer run. International trade in emissions permits plays a modest role in our proposal. The agreement should not attempt to prescribe the national policies (e.g. cap and trade or taxes or a hybrid) used to achieve reductions.
The escape clause gives signatories the option to reduce their abatement, provided that they pay a penalty. We discuss two mechanisms for imposing this penalty, either a monetary fine or WTO-sanctioned trade restrictions. The escape clause option is similar to the often-discussed “safety valve”, in that it puts a ceiling on actual abatement costs, thereby reducing the expected costs and the risk of membership. The escape clause proposal also helps to solve the problem of inducing nations to join the agreement and of inducing members to comply with their commitments. The severity of the (implicit or explicit) fine increases with the number of members. Therefore, a potential member’s decision to join the agreement increases other members’ incentive to abate. This added leverage promotes membership, helping to solve the participation problem. The absence of institutions that compel signatories to carry out their commitments has weakened the Kyoto Protocol. Our escape clause proposal addresses the enforcement problem by transforming an exotic commitment (reduction of emissions) into a familiar requirement (payment of an international financial obligation or adherence to a trade commitment). Institutions currently exist to help enforce these kinds of international commitments.
To order Task Force reports, Council Special Reports, and Critical Policy Choices, please call, fax, or order online from our distributor, the Brookings Institution Press: phone +1.800.537.5487, fax +1.410.516.6998.
For information on other reports that are not for sale, or for general publications information, please call +1.212.434.9516 or email publications@cfr.org.
Start-Up Nation addresses the trillion-dollar question: How is it that Israel—a country of 7.1 million, only sixty years old, surrounded by enemies— produces more start-up companies than large, peaceful, and stable nations like Japan, China, India, Korea, Canada, and the UK? With the insights of geopolitical experts and investors, the authors examine this nation’s adversity-driven culture to answer this question and offer prescriptions for a global economy on the rebound.
In Forces of Fortune, Vali Nasr presents a paradigm-changing revelation that will transform the understanding of the Muslim world at large. He reveals that there is a vital but unseen rising force in the Islamic world—a new business-minded middle class—that is building a vibrant new Muslim world economy and that holds the key to winning the cold war against Iran and extremists.
In Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know, Julia E. Sweig presents a remarkably accessible portrait of Cuba's unique place on the world stage over the past fifty years, including its internal politics, its often fraught relationship with the United States, and its shifting relationship with the global community.
Complete list of CFR Books
Copyright 2009 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.