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| Author: | Richard N. Haass, Martin Indyk, Stephen Biddle, Michael E. O’Hanlon, Kenneth M. Pollack, Suzanne Maloney, Ray Takeyh, Bruce Riedel, Gary Samore, Steven A. Cook, Shibley Telhami, Isobel Coleman, Tamara Cofman Wittes, Daniel Byman, Steven Simon |
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| Publisher: | A CFR–Saban Center at Brookings Book |
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Release Date: December 2008
256 pages
ISBN 978-0-8157-3869-5
$24.95
The next U.S. president will need to pursue a new strategic framework for advancing American interests in the Middle East. The mounting challenges include sectarian conflict in Iraq, Iran’s pursuit of nuclear capabilities, failing Palestinian and Lebanese governments, a dormant peace process, and the ongoing war against terror. Compounding these challenges is a growing hostility toward U.S. involvement in the Middle East. The old policy paradigms, whether President George W. Bush’s model of regime change and democratization or President Bill Clinton’s model of peacemaking and containment, will no longer suit the likely circumstances confronting the next administration in the Middle East.
“Thoughtful ... a very useful and readable introduction to the thinking behind the coming shift.”
—New York Times Book Review
In Restoring the Balance: A Middle East Strategy for the Next President, experts from the Council on Foreign Relations and the Saban Center at the Brookings Institution propose a new, nonpartisan strategy drawing on the lessons of past failures to address both the short-term and long-term challenges to U.S. interests. Following an overview chapter by Richard N. Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, and Martin Indyk, director of the Saban Center, individual chapters address the Arab-Israeli conflict, counterterrorism, Iran, Iraq, political and economic development, and nuclear proliferation. Specific policy recommendations stem from in-depth research and extensive dialogue with individuals in government, media, academia, and the private sector throughout the region.
Restoring the Balance is the final product of an eighteen-month Council on Foreign Relations–Saban Center at Brookings project. This effort involved fifteen of the institutions’ senior Middle East experts, who joined together for the first time to conduct in-depth research, travel to the region, and hold interviews with its leaders in order to develop a series of policy recommendations for President-elect Barack Obama. The teams met on three occasions with a board of advisers, a group of former government officials and leaders in the public and private sectors who critiqued drafts of the papers but were not asked to endorse the views presented.
The forty-fourth president will face a series of critical, complex, and interrelated challenges in the Middle East that will demand his immediate attention: an Iran apparently intent on approaching or crossing the nuclear threshold as quickly as possible; a fragile situation in Iraq that is straining the U.S. military; weak governments in Lebanon and Palestine under challenge from stronger Hezbollah and Hamas militant organizations; a faltering Israeli-Palestinian peace process; and American influence diluted by a severely damaged reputation. The president will need to initiate multiple policies to address all these challenges but will quickly discover that time is working against him.
Recent trends suggest that the United States may be able to reduce significantly its forces in Iraq fairly soon, premised not on the certainty of defeat, but on the likelihood of some measure of success. The past eighteen to twenty four months have seen a remarkable series of positive developments in Iraq that offer hope that the United States may be able to ensure stability in Iraq while redeploying—gradually—large numbers of American forces sooner rather than later.
The Obama administration may be tempted to take the easy way out by offering merely new rhetoric and modest refinements to the carrot-and-stick approach that has failed its five predecessors. This would be a mistake. Today, to deal effectively with a rising Iran, the United States must embark on a far deeper reevaluation of its strategy and launch a comprehensive diplomatic initiative to attempt to engage its most enduring Middle Eastern foe.
Iran appears to be two to three years away from building an enrichment facility capable of producing sufficient weapons-grade uranium quickly enough to support a credible nuclear weapons option. As a consequence, the Obama administration will likely have some breathing space to develop a new diplomatic approach to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapons capability. Part of this new approach should involve direct and unconditional talks between the United States and Iran on a range of bilateral issues, as well as formal nuclear negotiations between Iran and the EU-3 plus 3 (France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, plus China, Russia, and the United States).
After seven years on the back burner of American foreign policy, Arab-Israeli peacemaking needs to become a priority for the new president. Recent trends in Israel and the Palestinian territories have created a situation in which the option of a two-state solution may soon no longer be possible. Failure to forge an agreement will present serious complications for other American policies in the Middle East because the Arab-Israeli conflict remains central not only to Israel and its neighbors but also to the way most Arabs view the United States.
The United States no longer faces a choice between supporting democratization and economic liberalization or protecting a mythic status quo. The region is already in the midst of transition. America has a clear stake in helping its key Arab partners, notably Egypt and Saudi Arabia, with political and economic reform.
President Obama should make counterterrorism an integral part of his approach to the Middle East but not the only driver of his regional policy. Counterterrorism, therefore, should be seen as a significant policy concern but weighed among many interests.
“[Restoring the Balance] ... is no mere straw in the wind: It spells out in considerable detail what the Obama administration’s strategy and priorities for Iran and the Israeli-Arab peace process are going to be.”
—Washington Times
“Among the plethora of proposals ... Barack Obama is being offered from unofficial sources in this transition period, chances are that ... Restoring the Balance will command a prominent place.”
—Jerusalem Post
“Thoughtful ... a very useful and readable introduction to the thinking behind the coming shift.”
—New York Times Book Review
Stephen Biddle is a senior fellow for defense policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. Before joining CFR, he held the Elihu Root chair of military studies at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. He has held teaching and research positions at numerous universities.
Daniel Byman is a senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings. He is director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies and an associate professor in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.
Isobel Coleman is a senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations and director of CFR’s Women and Foreign Policy program. She is the coauthor of Strategic Foreign Assistance: Civil Society in International Security.
Steven A. Cook is a senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Before joining CFR, he was a research fellow at the Brookings Institution and a Soref research fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Richard N. Haass is president of the Council on Foreign Relations. Until June 2003 he was director of policy planning for the Department of State, where he was a principal adviser to Secretary of State Colin Powell. Previously, Haass was vice president and director of Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution and served in senior roles in the George H. W. Bush administration.
Martin Indyk is the director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings. He served in several senior positions in the U.S. government, most recently as ambassador to Israel. Prior to that he served as assistant secretary of state for Near East affairs and as special assistant to President Clinton and senior director for Near East and South Asian affairs in the National Security Council.
Suzanne Maloney is a senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings. Prior to this, she served on the State Department’s policy planning staff, was the Middle East adviser at ExxonMobil Corporation, and served as project director of the Task Force on U.S.-Iran Relations at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Michael E. O’Hanlon is a senior fellow of foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institution. He is also director of research for the 21st Century Defense Initiative and senior author of the Brookings Iraq Index. Prior to this, he advised members of Congress on military spending.
Kenneth M. Pollack is director of research at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings. He served as a Persian Gulf military analyst at the CIA, a senior research professor at National Defense University, and the director for Persian Gulf affairs at the National Security Council.
Bruce Riedel is a senior fellow for political transitions in the Middle East and South Asia at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings. He retired in 2006 after thirty years’ service at the Central Intelligence Agency and on the National Security Council at the White House.
Gary Samore is vice president, director of studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg chair at the Council on Foreign Relations. He served as vice president for global security and sustainability at the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, director of studies and senior fellow for nonproliferation at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and senior director for nonproliferation and export controls at the National Security Council.
Steven Simon is the Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Before joining CFR, he was senior Middle East analyst at the RAND Corporation, assistant director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and a member of the National Security Council staff.
Ray Takeyh is a senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is also a contributing editor of the National Interest. Takeyh served as a professor of national security studies at the National War College and has been a professor and fellow in several universities and institutions.
Shibley Telhami is a nonresident senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings. He is Anwar Sadat professor at the University of Maryland. He has served on a number of governmental commissions and as adviser to the United States Delegation to the United Nations.
Tamara Cofman Wittes is a senior fellow in the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings and directs the center’s Project on Middle East Democracy and Development. Previously she served as Middle East specialist at the U.S. Institute of Peace and director of programs at the Middle East Institute.
Read the book review in the January 18, 2009, issue of the New York Times.
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