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May 20, 2009
This U.S.-Russia joint assessment of Iran's nuclear and missile potential, published by the East West Institute, finds that Iran could produce a simple nuclear device within one to three years and develop a nuclear warhead for ballistic missiles in six to eight years. It also reports that Tehran will not be able, for at least ten to fifteen years, to independently master the technologies necessary for advanced intermediate-range ballistic missiles or intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Does Europe face a military threat from Iran, and if so what is the nature of that threat? What is Iran's nuclear capability today and what might it be in the future? What ballistic missile capability does Iran have today and what might it have in the future? If Europe had a missile defense system, would that system protect Europe?
These questions have been widely discussed in the popular media, often on the basis of misleading information. This report, which has been written by a group of U.S. and Russian specialists, provides an assessment of the Iranian nuclear and missile programs and an evaluation of the European Missile Defense system proposed by the Bush administration. It is not yet clear what the Obama administration's policy on missile defense will be.
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