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| Authors: | Ayten Tartici Lee Hudson Teslik |
|---|
June 5, 2009
Lebanon holds parliamentary elections on June 7, 2009. The main question at stake is whether the country's Hezbollah-led "March 8" coalition will defeat its Western-backed "March 14" coalition. Analysts expect a close vote, and many see a narrow victory for March 8 as likely. The question, then, would be whether the two coalitions join together in a unity government. The makeup of such a government, or potential political clashes if Lebanon's political leaders fail to unite, could also have broad ramifications for the Middle East peace process, ties between Syria and Lebanon, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The vote will also mark the first test of Lebanon's new election law, which was agreed in September 2008, with mediation from Qatari officials, as a resolution to political disputes between Hezbollah and its rivals.
All 128 seats in Lebanon's National Assembly (Majlis al-Nuwab), which functions as the country's parliament, will be contested in the June 2009 elections. Lebanon's September 2008 election law allocates these seats among twenty-six electoral districts. A record number of candidates--nearly six hundred as of late April according to Lebanese news sources--are vying for those seats. Each district is mandated to have a fixed number of representatives from Lebanon's eighteen different religious sects. For example, the Tripoli district is allotted a total of eight seats, five of which are to be filled by Sunni Muslims, one by an Alawite Muslim, one by a Maronite Christian, and one by a Greek Orthodox Christian. This interactive graphic from NOW Lebanon shows the geography of Lebanon's electoral districts and profiles the candidates running in each district. Lebanon's official elections website lists the sectarian breakdown of parliamentary representation in each district.
There are two major competing blocs to watch:
These elections are the fifth since the end of the Lebanese Civil War in 1989. The country's 1990 constitution, scripted in accordance with the October 1989 Taif Accords, stipulates that representation in the Lebanese National Assembly should be divided equally between Christians and Muslims, and then further subdivided by confessional branches. The country's leadership positions are also divvied up according to religious faith: since 1943, the Lebanese president, elected by the parliament, has been required to be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister has been a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of the parliament has been a Shiite Muslim. This distribution system has become highly controversial due to the perceived power inequalities it establishes. While Lebanon has not held a census in more than seventy years, objective observers generally agree that Muslims now significantly outnumber Christians in the country--many analysts say 70 percent or more of the country is now Muslim.
Lebanon's June 2009 parliamentary elections will mark a critical first test of the agreement the country's rival factions signed in 2008 and will serve as a test of whether Lebanon can successfully redistribute political power among its religious sects without devolving into violence. They also could test Lebanon's relations with the United States and other countries if Hezbollah and its allies dominate the next government after winning a parliamentary majority. Hezbollah has pledged to bring M14 into a coalition government, and to give it veto power. But M14's Hariri has said he would not join a coalition government led by Hezbollah and its allies. Leading figures in the pro-Western M14 bloc have also warned that Hezbollah's political ascendance could hold adverse economic consequences (Zawya) for Lebanon.
Politically, experts and news reports have outlined the two most likely fallout scenarios:
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