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September 9, 2009
| Author: | Paul B. Stares, General John W. Vessey Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention and Director of the Center for Preventive Action |
|---|
This module features teaching notes by CFR Senior Fellow and Director of CFR's Center for Preventative Action Paul B. Stares, coauthor of Preparing for Sudden Change in North Korea, along with other resources to supplement the text. This Council Special Report addresses the foreign policy challenge of how the United States and its allies can prepare for the possibility of sudden and destabilizing change in North Korea.
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January 2009
Council Special Report No. 42
North Korea has long been a serious concern to Washington. Now, with President Kim Jong-Il reportedly in bad health and possibly naming a successor, the United States must consider possible outcomes should the situation deteriorate and the current North Korean government collapse. This report examines the challenges that these scenarios would pose—ranging from securing Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal to providing humanitarian assistance—in the context of the interests of the United States and others in its valuable recommendations.
September 23, 2009
An interactive multimedia feature that maps out and evaluates multilateral efforts to address some of the most difficult international issues.
January 29, 2007
An interactive, multimedia guide to the dispute between North and South Korea.
Updated: July 21, 2009
China remains Pyongyang's biggest trade partner and arguably has most leverage on Kim Jong-Il's regime. But the relationship is a difficult one, experts say.
Updated: July 1, 2009
The Six-Party Talks serve as a forum about North Korea's nuclear weapons program, but the negotiations have been riddled by Pyongyang's belligerence and the differing priorities of the participating nations.
Updated: January 28, 2009
Speculation over Kim Jong-Il's health has prompted discussion about the future of the isolated country and its nuclear weapons program. Most experts believe a post-Kim North Korea regime would remain a tough nuclear negotiator.
Updated: June 28, 2008
North Korea's recent nuclear program and recent nuclear test have resulted in on-going negotiations aimed at North Korea's cooperation with the international community.
June 8, 2006
The government of North Korean President Kim Jung-Il retains a virtual death grip on the nation's economy, directing all official economic activity through an authoritarian command system. But recent moves to liberalize some aspects of the economy pose a dilemma for Kim: the country needs to modernize to survive, but opening up the economy will threaten his hold on power.
April 2009
Task Force Report No. 62
This report finds that nuclear weapons will remain a fundamental element of U.S. national security in the near term, and makes recommendations on how to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. deterrent nuclear force, prevent nuclear terrorism, and strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
September 2008
Council Special Report No. 39
Unlike during the Cold War, the threat of nuclear attack now comes from rogue states that receive their weapons from sovereign nations. In this report, Michael A. Levi outlines how to discourage those nations from giving their nuclear technologies to terrorists, how to prevent accidental transfers, and the role that nuclear attribution plays in contemporary proliferation.
March 2006
Council Special Report No. 11
The threat of a nuclear attack—especially a nuclear detonation—by terrorists has never been greater. The United States and the international community must do more to prevent terrorists from buying, stealing, or building nuclear weapons. This report identifies where efforts have fallen short in securing and eliminating nuclear weapons and weapons-usable nuclear materials, and it offers realistic recommendations to plug these gaps in the U.S. and international response.
March/April 2009
Summary
Financial sanctions have become a key tool of U.S. foreign policy. Measures taken against Iran and North Korea make clear that this new financial statecraft can be effective, but true success will require persuading global banks to accept a shared sense of risk.
September/October 2007
Summary
The outcome of the North Korean nuclear saga has been held up as an example of the Bush administration defying its bellicose reputation and using multilateralism and diplomacy to defuse a crisis. But in fact, the story is one of extremely poor policymaking and a persistent failure to devise a coherent strategy -- with the result that North Korea has managed to dramatically expand its nuclear capability.
July 16, 2009
Andrew Higgins examines Kim Jong Un's, the third son and heir apparent of Kim Jong Il, sojourn at a Swiss high school and speculates whether his experiences there will have an effect on his reign as North Korea's next leader.
June 14, 2009
The former deputy chief of the U.S. delegation to the six-party talks on North Korea during the Bush administration shares his observations on Kim Jong Il's true intentions and goals.
June 8, 2009
In this opinion piece, Henry Kissinger suggests the international diplomatic effort to manage North Korea's nuclear arsenal needs to harden, and adopt the elimination of North Korean nuclear weapons as its goal.
April 5, 2009
Statement
April 2009
In Comparative Connections, Scott A. Snyder and See-won Byun review recent developments in Korea-China relations.
April 2009
This DNI Open Source Center chart identifies the leadership hierarchy of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
September 3, 2009
Korea expert Victor D. Cha says effective implementation of the UN sanctions imposed on Pyongyang in June prompted recent conciliatory gestures from the regime. He says the United States might resume bilateral talks with North Korea in addition to pursuing multilateral discussions on Pyongyang's nuclear program.
August 4, 2009
CFR Korea expert Scott A. Snyder says the visit to Pyongyang by former President Bill Clinton, which won the pardon of two U.S. journalists, provided a rare opportunity to gauge North Korea's views as nuclear talks remain stalled.
July 23, 2009
Human rights in North Korea have been on the diplomatic back burner with Washington preoccupied over the nuclear question. Human rights specialist Roberta Cohen proposes a multilateral security mechanism for Northeast Asia that focuses on a broad range of issues, from energy to human rights.
June 19, 2009
CFR Fellow Kara C. McDonald says the new UN Security Council Resolution against North Korea is one of the strongest set of sanctions adopted thus far by the body, though success in bringing North Korea back to the negotiation table is dependent on enforcement.
June 3, 2009
Listen to experts discuss the implications of North Korea’s recent nuclear tests and the available policy options for the Obama administration and the international community.
May 28, 2009
North Korea's nuclear test raises new concerns about its nuclear capabilities, regime succession, and the limits of both international pressure and engagement. Four experts address the policy options available to influence Pyongyang.
May 25, 2009
CFR's Northeast Asia expert Sheila A. Smith says it is imperative for the United States to make it clear that it will not accept a nuclear North Korea. The UN's nonproliferation regime is also facing a moment of truth, she says.
April 28, 2009
CFR's Scott A. Snyder says North Korea's recent moves away from the process to end its nuclear programs could arise from new developments on leadership succession and a desire to change the terms of engagement with Washington.
April 6, 2009
CFR's Sheila Smith says Pyongyang's latest attempt at a rocket launch shows the regime is clearly bent on acquiring a nuclear delivery capability. She says Washington must reassure North Korea that diplomacy is the only way forward.
January 21, 2009
Don Oberdorfer, a leading expert on North and South Korea, says he sees no evidence North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il has moved to relinquish control, despite reports concerning his illness and succession.
Updated: March 16, 2007
Two nonproliferation experts evaluate the recent deal with North Korea's nuclear program.
Updated: December 8, 2006
For more than a decade, the United States and North Korea’s neighbors have tried various tactics to keep the rogue state, which conducted its first nuclear test in October, from becoming nuclear. David C. Kang and Aaron L. Friedberg debate the best approaches to influence a nuclear North Korea.
June 17, 2009
Scott A. Snyder testifies before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs' Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, and the Global Environment; and Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Trade. His testimony addresses North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests and Six-Party talks.
October 2, 2008
Article
Authors: John R. Bolton and Nicholas Eberstadt
September 11, 2008
Article
Author: Michael Finnegan
May 21, 2008
Article
Author: Drew Thompson
January 2008
Working Paper
Authors: Bonnie Glaser, Scott Snyder, and John S. Park
2007
Book
Author: Robert S. Litwak
The United States and the Future of Global Governance: Strengthening the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime
Related Project: The United States and the Future of Global Governance Symposium
| Speakers: | Charles D. Ferguson, Philip D. Reed Senior Fellow for Science and Technology, Council on Foreign Relations |
|---|---|
| Christopher A. Ford, Director, Center for Technology and Global Security, Hudson Institute | |
| Paul Lettow, Adjunct Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations | |
| Moderator: | Henry Sokolski, Executive Director, Nonproliferation Policy Education Center |
What stake does the United States have in the global nonproliferation regime as it currently exists? What are the risks and rewards of bilateral arrangements with countries such as India? How can loopholes in the NPT be closed? Should the United States ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty? What are the lessons of voluntary initiatives, such as the Proliferation Security Initiative, for a coalition approach to nonproliferation?
Transcript: Strengthening The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime
Audio: Strengthening the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime (Audio)
Video: Strengthening the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime (Video)
This meeting is on the record.
Disarming, Delisting, and Dealing with North Korea: Next Steps
| Speakers: | Michael J. Green, Senior Adviser and Japan Chair, Center for Strategic & International Studies; Associate Professor, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University |
|---|---|
| Gary Samore, Vice President, Director of Studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair, Council on Foreign Relations | |
| Presider: | Don Oberdorfer, Chairman, U.S.-Korea Institute, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University |
Just two years have passed since North Korea's nuclear test. Heightened engagement efforts, through the six-party talks, led to agreement on nuclear disarmament and North Korea's recent removal from the State Department's list of state sponsors of terrorism. However, North Korea remains a strategic challenge. Join Michael Green and Gary Samore for a discussion of North Korea in the region, the world, and in U.S. policy for a new U.S. administration.
Audio: Disarming, Delisting, and Dealing with North Korea: Next Steps (Audio)
This meeting is on the record.
Reducing Nuclear Dangers: The Race Between Cooperation and Catastrophe
| Speaker: | Sam Nunn, Co-Chairman and CEO, Nuclear Threat Initiative |
|---|---|
| Presider: | James F. Hoge Jr., Peter G. Peterson Chair & Editor, Foreign Affairs |
Recognizing that we have arrived at a dangerous tipping point in the nuclear era, Senator Nunn will discuss the path that he, George Shultz, Henry Kissinger, and Bill Perry have charted for advancing the vision of a world free of nuclear weapons linked to specific steps to reduce nuclear dangers.
12:15 - 1:00 p.m. Lunch
1:00 - 2:00 p.m. Meeting
Transcript: Reducing Nuclear Dangers: The Race between Cooperation and Catastrophe [Rush Transcript; Federal News Service]
Audio: A Conversation with Sam Nunn (Audio)
Video: A Conversation with Sam Nunn (Video)
This meeting is on the record.
North Korea's Nuclear Brinkmanship
| Speakers: | Stephen W. Bosworth, Dean, The Fletcher School, Tufts University; former U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of Korea |
|---|---|
| Gordon G. Chang, Author, Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes on the West | |
| Donald P. Gregg, Chairman of the Board, The Korea Society; former U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of Korea | |
| Presider: | Evans J.R. Revere, Cyrus Vance Fellow in Diplomatic Studies, Council on Foreign Relations |
12:15-1:00 p.m. Lunch
1:00-2:00 p.m. Meeting
*This meeting will be on the record.
Transcript: North Korea’s Nuclear Brinksmanship [Rush Transcript; Federal News Service, Inc.]
Audio: North Korea's Nuclear Brinkmanship (audio)
Video: North Korea's Nuclear Brinkmanship (video)
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Start-Up Nation addresses the trillion-dollar question: How is it that Israel—a country of 7.1 million, only sixty years old, surrounded by enemies— produces more start-up companies than large, peaceful, and stable nations like Japan, China, India, Korea, Canada, and the UK? With the insights of geopolitical experts and investors, the authors examine this nation’s adversity-driven culture to answer this question and offer prescriptions for a global economy on the rebound.
In Forces of Fortune, Vali Nasr presents a paradigm-changing revelation that will transform the understanding of the Muslim world at large. He reveals that there is a vital but unseen rising force in the Islamic world—a new business-minded middle class—that is building a vibrant new Muslim world economy and that holds the key to winning the cold war against Iran and extremists.
In Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know, Julia E. Sweig presents a remarkably accessible portrait of Cuba's unique place on the world stage over the past fifty years, including its internal politics, its often fraught relationship with the United States, and its shifting relationship with the global community.
Complete list of CFR Books
The report of this bipartisan Task Force of distinguished leaders and experts represents a strong consensus on the importance of repairing America's immigration policy. It makes the case that maintaining America's political and economic leadership depends on attracting talented and hard-working immigrants, and on securing the country's borders in a smart, effective, and humane way.
This report finds that nuclear weapons will remain a fundamental element of U.S. national security in the near term, and makes recommendations on how to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. deterrent nuclear force, prevent nuclear terrorism, and strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
About Independent Task Forces at CFR
Complete list of Task Force reports
Identifying international threats and acting on them may be the most difficult job for U.S. policymakers. This report
provides an actionable road map for managing international threats before they erupt into crises and makes a strong case that preventive action is not a luxury but a necessity.
For more than a decade, the United States has mostly watched from the sidelines as Asian countries organize themselves into an alphabet soup of new multilateral groups. In this report, the authors review the relationship between pan-Asian and trans-Pacific institutions and suggest policy guidelines for a new U.S. approach to this new Asian landscape.
Complete list of Council Special Reports
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