home > by publication type > daily analysis > The Cost of Commitment in Afghanistan
Email
| Author: |
|---|
U.S. soldiers search for improvised explosive devices in Logar province, September 26, 2009 (Reuters/Nikola Solic)
As U.S. President Barack Obama ponders whether to commit additional forces to the Afghan war or--as some congressional Democrats are urging (Politico)--remain open to other options, the debate appears to be dividing U.S. military and civilian leaders (WashPost). While commanders in Afghanistan have requested more troops to partner with and to protect the Afghan public--key tenets of a counterinsurgency fight--members of President Obama's national security team are advocating a narrowly focused counterterrorism campaign to root out insurgents from afar.
President Obama has sought to reassure lawmakers that, no matter how the United States moves forward, Washington remains in Afghanistan for the long haul. During a ninety-minute bipartisan briefing at the White House on October 6, the eve of the war's eight-year anniversary, the president sought to "dispense with the straw man argument" (NYT) that the debate is about "either doubling down or leaving Afghanistan." Reports following the meeting suggest the president is pondering adding up to 10,000 additional troops (Times of London) to the 68,000 already authorized, far short of the top-tier request of 40,000 reportedly requested by Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, the commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan. McChrystal, meanwhile, has been public in his belief that the clock is ticking on a war effort adrift in violence (PDF) and soon to become America's longest. "This effort will not remain winnable indefinitely (PDF), and nor will public support," the general told a gathering of military strategists in London on October 1.
Opinion surveys show Americans are increasingly pessimistic on the odds of success; nearly one-third believe U.S. troops should be gone within a year (NYT). But beyond American resolve are deeper concerns over Afghan capabilities. Politics in the war-shattered nation are riddled with controversial characters (Times of London), and Afghanistan's central government--hobbled by massive claims of electoral fraud--is widely seen as ineffective. Peter W. Galbraith, who was fired from his post as the UN's deputy special representative in Afghanistan over a disagreement on how the UN should respond to Afghan electoral fraud, says nearly one-third of votes cast for President Hamid Karzai in the August 20 presidential balloting were fraudulent (WashPost).
President Obama has so far offered few hints on his strategic thinking, but disparate gears of government are already in motion. McChrystal, for one, is preparing to redeploy forces (CSMonitor) from rural outposts to urban centers. The president's national security team is seeking to recast al-Qaeda in Pakistan as the principle threat, downplaying the Afghan Taliban's ability to directly target the United States. Boston University's Andrew Bacevich says this assessment is sound; given Afghanistan's limited strategic importance to the United States, a more limited counterterrorist approach (News Hour) could work. But Peter Bergen, a terrorism expert at New America Foundation, says that "if U.S. forces were not in Afghanistan," the Taliban would return to Kabul "within 24 hours," al-Qaeda in tow. And that scenario, Bergen says, could pose a long-term challenge to American national security.
Meanwhile, the Taliban continues to prove its ability to strike in Kabul, claiming responsibility for today's deadly bombing at the Indian embassy in Kabul. It was the second attack at that embassy in two years; the previous one was tied by U.S. authorities to Pakistani intelligence officers and Pakistani-based Taliban. No such links have been made in connection with the latest bombing.
Additional Analysis
J. Alexander Thier, director of the Afghanistan and Pakistan program at the U.S. Institute of Peace, says what's needed now is a new multinational civilian effort (ForeignPolicy.com) in Afghanistan.
CFR President Richard N. Haass discusses why Afghanistan has become a war of choice, not a war of necessity.
Six experts offer their views on the way ahead in Afghanistan.
Background Material
Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal's initial assessment of the war suggests more U.S. troops are needed to wage a successful counterinsurgency campaign.
PBS' FRONTLINE explores the operational challenges facing the military in "Obama's War."
Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org.
To order Task Force reports, Council Special Reports, and Critical Policy Choices, please call, fax, or order online from our distributor, the Brookings Institution Press: phone +1.800.537.5487, fax +1.410.516.6998.
For information on other reports that are not for sale, or for general publications information, please call +1.212.434.9516 or email publications@cfr.org.
Start-Up Nation addresses the trillion-dollar question: How is it that Israel—a country of 7.1 million, only sixty years old, surrounded by enemies— produces more start-up companies than large, peaceful, and stable nations like Japan, China, India, Korea, Canada, and the UK? With the insights of geopolitical experts and investors, the authors examine this nation’s adversity-driven culture to answer this question and offer prescriptions for a global economy on the rebound.
In Forces of Fortune, Vali Nasr presents a paradigm-changing revelation that will transform the understanding of the Muslim world at large. He reveals that there is a vital but unseen rising force in the Islamic world—a new business-minded middle class—that is building a vibrant new Muslim world economy and that holds the key to winning the cold war against Iran and extremists.
In Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know, Julia E. Sweig presents a remarkably accessible portrait of Cuba's unique place on the world stage over the past fifty years, including its internal politics, its often fraught relationship with the United States, and its shifting relationship with the global community.
Complete list of CFR Books
The report of this bipartisan Task Force of distinguished leaders and experts represents a strong consensus on the importance of repairing America's immigration policy. It makes the case that maintaining America's political and economic leadership depends on attracting talented and hard-working immigrants, and on securing the country's borders in a smart, effective, and humane way.
This report finds that nuclear weapons will remain a fundamental element of U.S. national security in the near term, and makes recommendations on how to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. deterrent nuclear force, prevent nuclear terrorism, and strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
About Independent Task Forces at CFR
Complete list of Task Force reports
Identifying international threats and acting on them may be the most difficult job for U.S. policymakers. This report
provides an actionable road map for managing international threats before they erupt into crises and makes a strong case that preventive action is not a luxury but a necessity.
For more than a decade, the United States has mostly watched from the sidelines as Asian countries organize themselves into an alphabet soup of new multilateral groups. In this report, the authors review the relationship between pan-Asian and trans-Pacific institutions and suggest policy guidelines for a new U.S. approach to this new Asian landscape.
Complete list of Council Special Reports
To request permission to reprint or reuse CFR material, please fill out this permissions request form (PDF), referring to the instructions on page 1.
Copyright 2009 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.