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| Author: | Paul B. Stares, General John W. Vessey Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention and Director of the Center for Preventive Action |
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October 16, 2009
Los Angeles Times
Just a few months ago, the supreme leader of North Korea, Kim Jong Il, appeared to be a lame duck in both senses of the term. In public appearances, he looked deathly ill after suffering a severe stroke in 2008, and preparations were reportedly underway for one of his sons to succeed him.
Fast-forward to today, and Kim is lame no more. Not only has he regained his vigor, judging by his performance during recent visits by Bill Clinton and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, but talk of his succession has also become muted. Kim is unquestionably still the man to do business with in Pyongyang.
But what kind of deals can be made? The United States, along with China, Russia, South Korea and Japan, would like the North to return to the six-party negotiations and, moreover, live up to its earlier nuclear disarmament pledges. The first part, probably preceded by bilateral talks between North Korea and the U.S., will likely take place soon. But the ultimate goal appears even more remote, if it were ever realistic.
North Korea has made it abundantly clear that it will not give up its nuclear weapons--"unthinkable ... even in a dream" as one of its officials recently put it. Possessing a nuclear deterrent is part and parcel of the North's declared intention to become a "strong and prosperous state" by 2012--the 100th anniversary of the birth of its founder, Kim Il Sung, and the 70th birthday of his son, the current leader.
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