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| Author: | Judith Kipper |
|---|
August 1, 2001
Council on Foreign Relations
A Middle East in crisis is not likely to give the Bush administration the time it deserves to do a much needed review of policy in the region. Months of violence between the Israelis and the Palestinians have clearly demonstrated just how important a policy review is if the United States is going to be able to protect its considerable interests in the region and continue to conduct its business there–diplomatic, strategic, and commercial. The terrorist attack on the USS Cole and other threats have forced the US to close its Embassies in the Middle East several times in the last few months. Virulent anti-Americanism throughout the region poses a formidable foreign policy challenge to US interests despite broad US engagement in the Middle East including security guarantees provided by US military forces for the Gulf states, a wide array of military assistance such as grants, pre-positioning, joint exercises, economic aid, commercial and diplomatic assistance and a willingness to be the only mediator the parties turn to in seeking peace.
So then why is the region so enraged by American policy? While the Middle East has changed dramatically since the end of the Cold War when many Arab countries enjoyed the patronage of the Soviet Union, US policy has not always reflected those critical changes. American policy has appropriately continued to strengthen the all-important special relationship with Israel and sought to establish bilateral security/military arrangements with Arab countries willing to be seen as American allies. Progress over the decade in the Arab-Israeli peace process accompanied by a changed attitude toward Israel in the Arab world have not been factors in policy making. A vastly different set of threats since the end of the Cold War have not resulted in a US regional policy that takes into consideration the realities of Arab societies or even Israel’s new found strategic and economic strength.
A demographic explosion in the region means that 70% of the Arab population is under the age of 25. A lack of democratization and economic reform by Arab governments have deprived this vast population of a standard of education, jobs, housing, freedom of expression, political participation and access to information technology. The youth throughout the region who are demonstrating against the United States are all too aware of strong American support for change in Yugoslavia most recently and throughout Eastern Europe since the end of the Cold War. By contrast, democratization, respect for civil and human rights, freedom of expression and political participation are simply not on the strategic agenda of an American policy which concentrates on bilateral relations with Israel and the Arab countries. In this case, the United States is justifiably accused of a double standard. The ever-widening gap between Arab regimes determined to maintain stability - almost at any price - with the encouragement of the United States and the aspirations of Arab populations has been ignored by American policy makers.
The Bush administration would be well served to recognize realities in the Middle East early and to address them even before a policy review is concluded. Some early steps the Bush administration could take:
The conventional wars are over between the Arabs and the Israelis, but the non-military threats which can further destabilize the region are growing rapidly. There is no quick fix. Neither the special relationship with Israel, nor bilateral military/security relations with the Arabs begin to address those threats. It is a fact of life that the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the most important destabilizing factor in the region today and it is time it is resolved on its own merits. Yet, resolving the Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Arab conflict will not bring stability to the region or solve the demographic, economic, political and security problems rampant through the Middle East. US policy makers in the Bush administration would be wise to undertake a new approach for what promises to be a long and difficult engagement in the area.
Judith Kipper is the Director of the Middle East Forum, Council on Foreign Relations and Director, Middle East Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, D.C.
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