• Op-Ed

  

  

  Rebuilding Iraq

  April 15, 2003
  National Public Radio

  All Things Considered, National Public Radio, April 15, 2003

  By Lee Feinstein

  The choice between an American-led effort in Iraq and a UN lead is really a false one. A US-UK lead in this early stage is inevitable -- and necessary. And the UN is unlikely to accept the monumental job of administering post-war Iraq.

  The UN should be involved in as many aspects of the post-Saddam transition as possible. But, whatever the scope of the UN’s role, winning the peace in Iraq will depend ultimately on whether the Bush administration is committed to the long haul.

  The recent experience in Afghanistan is a good reference point for what can be expected for post-war Iraq. In Afghanistan, the UN has a wide ranging role, even as the United States and coalition forces operate with a relatively free hand. Following the defeat of the Taliban, for example, the UN sponsored a conference bringing together leading Afghan voices to determine the future of the country at a Loya Jirga. The UN’s blessing promoted acceptance of the interim government by diverse Afghan factions and countries in the region, while the United States played the major role behind the scenes.

  Today in Afghanistan some 9,000 American and coalition combat troops, under the operational command of the United States, keep up the hunt for Al Qaeda holdouts. Meanwhile, the UN has given its blessing to a peacekeeping force in and around the Afghan capital that is commanded by rotating coalition forces, not the UN. The civilian administration in Afghanistan is also headed, tenuously, by Afghan authorities, who receive support and assistance from a myriad of UN agencies.

  But Afghanistan also teaches another lesson. Progress in Afghanistan is uneven. But it’s the money, not the model that is the problem. The United States is the largest provider of assistance to Afghanistan, but President Bush’s talk of a “new Marshall Plan” never materialized. Meanwhile, international assistance has fallen off, and a lack of political will confines the peacekeeping mission to Kabul, even as the central government loses control over the Afghan countryside.

  A UN blessing will be even more critical for post-conflict reconstruction in Iraq because of the Security Council split last fall. Americans don’t see it this way, but like it or not, the reality is that a UN blessing will determine whether the war is seen as a liberation or an occupation by much of the world. A significant international role now will make it more likely that nations that did not support the United States before the war will come around to contribute to the reconstruction now. Bringing in UN arms inspectors to witness and document the destruction of weapons of weapons of mass destruction once they are found by coalition forces will be especially critical to the legitimacy of the U.S. effort in the eyes of much of the world.

  But as in Afghanistan, winning the peace in Iraq will depend at least as much on whether the Bush administration is prepared to stay the course, and foot the bill. Depending on who is doing the planning, maintaining stability in post-war Iraq will require between 75,000 to 200,000 troops. A blue ribbon commission sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations recently calculated the costs of reconstruction, humanitarian assistance, and security, based on the low troop estimate. The tab is $20 billion a year. Just a portion of these costs could be recouped by sales of Iraqi oil in the near term.

  Finding the right role for the UN in post-war Iraq will be critical to meeting US humanitarian responsibilities and diplomatic goals. In Afghanistan, the model is right, but the mission is jeopardized by a lack of money and muscle. The same will hold true for Iraq. Even the best of plans won’t stand a chance without a multiyear, multibillion dollar commitment.

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