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| Authors: | Princeton N. Lyman, Adjunct Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies John Prendergast |
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May 14, 2003
International Herald Tribune
Already beset by poverty, AIDS and conflict, Africa is receiving further blows as the global repercussions of the Iraq war take their toll on security, politics, economies and the humanitarian sphere. Not a corner of the continent will be left untouched.
The security implications could be far-reaching. The Iraq war has stirred up a great deal of resentment. Combined with a dearth of economic opportunities, this could create a growing recruitment base for extremist and terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda, whose appeal in Africa has so far been limited.
The other side of the security equation is that key Western powers will inevitably give less attention to efforts to end Africa's conflicts as the Iraq war and postwar reconstruction absorb the bulk of high-level diplomatic, media and legislative attention.
This is a critical time for peace processes in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Burundi, Ivory Coast, Sudan and Somalia, and for the prevention of renewed war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Without significant international efforts, these countries risk reverting to full-scale war, with humanitarian implications no less profound than those in the Iraq war.
The political fallout of the Iraq war is also disturbing. A few African governments joined the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq and many have cooperated closely with the United States on anti-terrorism measures. But suspicion of U.S. intentions in Iraq is widespread throughout Africa, particularly in countries with sizable Muslim populations-nearly half of the continent's people are Muslims-and this will strain relations between the United States and some African countries.
The most damaging repercussions of the Iraq war, however, may be economic and humanitarian. President George W. Bush has proposed major increases in foreign assistance and funds for countering AIDS, but it is hard to imagine those requests being fully funded as Congress faces costs of postwar reconstruction and growing deficits.
The giant sucking sound heard across the developing world as aid assets are diverted to Iraq and Afghanistan will be most pronounced in Africa, where millions of dollars will be lost in aid for development, humanitarian, refugee and public health needs, and private investment will be reduced. As jobs disappear, HIV infection rates soar and food becomes more difficult to obtain, any reduction of external assistance will mean thousands of Africans will die.
The most important way Africa can be protected from the fallout of the Iraq war is for the Bush administration to advance the Middle East peace process and the endgame in Iraq. But the administration and Congress can do much within Africa itself to contain the negative implications of the Iraq war.
First, the United States must recognize that American security interests extend significantly into Africa. The administration should redouble its support for existing peace processes and agreements, ensuring that diplomatic and financial resources are available for making and keeping the peace.
Second, the United States should fulfill its aid commitments, including the Millennium Challenge Account development assistance increases, the massive promise of AIDS help, the usual robust support for relief operations and refugee programs, or the New Partnership for Africa's Development.
Third, America could increase its support for good governance and human rights, working with African regional institutions, governments and civil society to ensure real progress, even while the world's attention is focused elsewhere.
The Iraq war and the larger war on terrorism are dealing heavy blows to Africa. But they do not have to be fatal ones, if the right steps are taken now.
Princeton Lyman, former U.S. Ambassador to South Africa and Nigeria, is a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. John Prendergast, who previously served at the National Security Council and the State Department, is the Co-Director of the Africa Program of the International Crisis Group.
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