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| Author: | Lionel Beehner |
|---|
May 26, 2005
A great deal. Most experts say if France votes "no" on the European Union constitution in its May 29 referendum, the future of the document will be in jeopardy. France is one of the original founders of the European Economic Community, the European Union's precursor, and leaders of both of France's major parties back the constitution. But polls show that a growing number of French citizens, from free-market advocates to labor leaders, are lining up against it. Experts say if France votes "no," the Dutch, whose support for the constitution is eroding quickly, may well follow suit during their June 1 referendum. All 25 members of the European Union must ratify the constitution, either by parliamentary vote or popular referendum, for it to take effect.
Its purpose is to better accommodate a larger European Union that by 2008 will comprise 27 countries and 500 million people. Logistically, it will replace a series of existing EU treaties signed over the past half century with a single, formalized text. "A lot of this constitution is a consolidation [of rules], not an innovation, even though these are important steps forward," says Charles A. Kupchan, director of Europe Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. The document is meant to coexist with--not replace--individual members' constitutions. It also enshrines a number of basic rights for EU citizens, including freedom of speech and religion, as well as the right for workers to strike and move about the European Union freely.
By streamlining decision-making, experts say. The 458-article constitution contains a number of important procedural functions to prevent gridlock and improve cohesion within an expanded European Union. Among them:
French voters across the political spectrum have raised issues about the constitution. Many of their concerns, experts point out, are not about the document itself, but about the role of France in an ever-expanding Europe, the pace and process of constitutional reforms, and concern that control over immigration, economic, and social policies will shift to Brussels. Among their integration worries:
One of the biggest issues Europeans have raised with the document is the manner in which it was written. They complain that the constitution, drafted by a select panel of 105 European experts over 18 months, was conceived in secret without any public debate or input from elected officials. European voters say they know little about the contents of the hefty 450-page text. Others are concerned that the constitution may be too much, too soon. "[W]e may be at one of these times where the Europeans have placed too much on their plate," said Richard R. Burt, a former U.S. ambassador to Germany, at a May 16 event at the Council on Foreign Relations.
It's unclear. As Jose Manuel Durao Barroso, president of the European Commission, told the Council on Foreign Relations on May 13: "We don't have a plan B." That is, there is no clear procedure in place if the ratification process fails, although Barroso indicated the European Council would then formally take up the matter. Experts say it is unlikely the European Union would redraft the current document, given the scope and scale of the project. More than likely, the European Union would continue to function under the previous set of rules and treaties indefinitely until a compromise is reached. Some experts have suggested certain concessions might be added to win approval in larger states like France or the Netherlands. There is also the chance of a revote in smaller countries.
No, but there could be some repercussions, experts say. Decision-making under existing rules would be made cumbersome; the European Union's seven-year budget could be delayed; and the process of expanding the group to include Romania and Bulgaria, scheduled for 2007, may get slowed down. Some economists say that uncertainty over Europe's new constitution, along with the widening gulf between EU members' economies, could also weaken the euro by inhibiting Europe's ability to control members' spending and inflation levels and exert itself as a forceful and united economic bloc.
Sixteen out of 25 countries still need to ratify the constitution. The June 1 Dutch referendum, which is nonbinding and can be overturned by parliament, is seen by some experts as a crucial next step toward ratifying the constitution, given that the Netherlands was among the founding members of the European Union and, in per capita terms, is now its largest contributor. Other upcoming hurdles include votes by Denmark, the Czech Republic, and most importantly, Great Britain. British Prime Minister Tony Blair has promised he will hold a referendum on the EU constitution early next year, regardless of the results in France and the Netherlands.
— by Lionel Beehner, staff writer, cfr.org
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