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| Author: | Lionel Beehner |
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June 1, 2005
They have dealt the EU constitution a potentially fatal blow, experts say. All 25 members of the EU must ratify the charter, either by parliamentary vote or popular referendum, for it to take effect. French voters soundly rejected the document in a May 29 referendum; Dutch voters followed suit June 1. Because the constitution's framers expected it to pass, there is no clear procedure for what happens next. The European Council, the EU's top decision-making body, is expected to debate next steps at its quarterly meeting, June 16-17.
Among the options:
Continue with the ratification process. Some EU officials have suggested this tactic in hopes of winning ratification from the remaining member-states and then dealing with France and the Netherlands at a later date. So far, 10 out of 25 countries have ratified the constitution, all but one by parliamentary vote. (Spanish voters approved the document in a referendum.) But this tactic could backfire on EU supporters. The constitution already faces stiff opposition in Denmark, Czech Republic, and the United Kingdom, all of which have pledged to bring the matter to a popular vote.Revise the constitution. There are no current plans in place to redraft the constitution. "It's a difficult document to tweak because it's a delicate product of so many compromises," says Pepper Culpepper , an associate professor of public policy at Harvard University. "There's no real wording that you can change [that would] suddenly turn French voters around." On the other hand, some EU officials have suggested that small revisions over the next few years could help win the document favor in key states like France or the Netherlands.Hold a revote. This is an option that's worked for Europe in the past. Irish voters, for example, rejected the Treaty of Nice in 2001 by a slim majority but then approved it the following year. France has indicated it will not hold a revote on the constitution, but some smaller EU members, including the Netherlands, have not ruled out the possibility.Salvage parts of the constitution. Some experts say there are parts of the constitution that are popular and may be subsequently passed as separate treaties. Among the constitutional reforms with widespread support is the creation of an EU foreign ministry to represent the continent.
No, because it will continue operating under existing treaties. But there could be some repercussions, experts say. Decision-making, due to the EU's recent enlargement, would be less cumbersome under new constitution procedures; the European Union's seven-year budget could be delayed; and the process of expanding the group to include Romania and Bulgaria, scheduled for 2007, may slow down. Some economists say that uncertainty over Europe's new constitution, along with the widening gulf between EU members' economies, could weaken the euro by inhibiting Europe's ability to exert itself as a forceful and united economic bloc that controls its members' spending and inflation levels. The day after the French "no" vote, the euro slid to a seven-month low.
Many of their worries relate to the general direction of an expanding EU, the pace and process of constitutional reforms, and a shift in control over major policy issues to Brussels. Among their specific concerns:
One of the biggest issues, in the Netherlands and elsewhere, is the manner in which the constitution was written. Europeans complain that the constitution, drafted by a select panel of 105 European experts over 18 months, was conceived in secret without any public debate or input from elected officials. "It's been a project driven by elites," Culpepper says. "And elites have not been that concerned about bringing people behind them and mobilizing support." European voters say they know little about the contents of the hefty 450-page text. Others are concerned the constitution may be too much, too soon. "[W]e may be at one of these times where the Europeans have placed too much on their plate," said Richard R. Burt, a former U.S. ambassador to Germany, at a May 16 event at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Its purpose is to better accommodate a larger European Union that by 2007 will comprise 27 countries and 500 million people. Logistically, it will replace a series of existing EU treaties signed over the past half century with a single, formalized text. "A lot of this constitution is a consolidation [of rules], not an innovation, even though [it contains] important steps forward," Kupchan says. The document is meant to coexist with--not replace--individual members' constitutions. It also enshrines a number of basic rights for EU citizens, including freedom of speech and religion, as well as the right for workers to strike and move about the European Union freely.
By streamlining decision-making, experts say. The 458-article constitution contains a number of important procedural functions to prevent gridlock and improve cohesion within an expanded European Union. Among them:
-by Lionel Beehner, staff writer, cfr.org
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