All CFR Reports

Global Economics Monthly December 2015

Author: Robert Kahn

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that the European Union (EU) faces rising populist pressure, reflecting long-term challenges to economic policymaking that can only partly be addressed by a cyclical recovery and debt relief. By strengthening the credibility of economic policy and the region’s resilience to shocks, better policy coordination and a faster path to economic union would go far toward securing a better economic future for Europe and addressing some underlying causes of populism.

See more in Europe; Economics

Fiscal Breakeven Oil Prices: Uses, Abuses, and Opportunities for Improvement

Fiscal Breakeven Oil Prices: Uses, Abuses, and Opportunities for Improvement

Authors: Blake Clayton and Michael A. Levi

Fiscal "breakeven" oil prices have become popular among analysts and decision-makers as indicators of oil-producing countries' economic and political stability, but there are limits to the insights that breakeven prices provide. Blake Clayton and Michael A. Levi assess the potential value and most important pitfalls involved in using fiscal breakeven oil prices.

 

See more in Global; Oil; Economics

Addressing North Korea’s Nuclear Problem

Addressing North Korea’s Nuclear Problem

Author: Scott A. Snyder

Since defecting from Six Party negotiations on denuclearization in 2008, North Korea has pursued nuclear development unchecked by international constraints. Scott A. Snyder outlines steps the United States should take to lead coordinated multilateral action opposing North Korea’s nuclear status, while still leaving a denuclearized North Korea a route for regime survival. 

See more in North Korea; Nonproliferation, Arms Control, and Disarmament

Armed Confrontation Between China and India

Armed Confrontation Between China and India

Author: Daniel S. Markey

Although China and India have repeatedly demonstrated a mutual desire to prevent conflict, the potential for their relationship to deteriorate is ever present. A border clash, conflict with Pakistan, maritime skirmish, or crisis over Tibet could raise tensions to the point of armed confrontation. Daniel S. Markey explains how the United States can promote peaceful relations between the world's two largest countries.

See more in China; India; Diplomacy and Statecraft; Regional Security

Working With a Rising India

Working With a Rising India

India now matters to U.S. interests in virtually every dimension. This CFR-sponsored Independent Task Force Report, directed by Alyssa Ayres, assesses the current situation in India and the U.S.-India relationship, and suggests a new model for partnership with a rising India

See more in India; Economic Development; Diplomacy and Statecraft

Global Economics Monthly November 2015

Author: Robert Kahn

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that the concerns driven by China's economic problems are modest compared to the 1997 Asian financial crisis or the Great Recession. However, there are reasons for concern: large financial imbalances, weak global growth, inadequate official resources, and political pressures. While a severe global financial crisis remains a tail risk, policymakers need to be prepared to respond. 

See more in Global; Economics

Global Economics Monthly: October 2015

Author: Robert Kahn

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that China's growth prospect lies somewhere between hard-landing and muddle-through scenarios. However, uncertainty remains and is already being felt strongly and likely to put increasing pressure on emerging markets through trade contraction and financial contagion. For the United States, fragility in emerging markets is the critical risk and will dominate economic decision-making for months if not years to come. 

See more in Global; Economics

Crisis Over Ukraine

Crisis Over Ukraine

Author: Steven Pifer

As a 2009 Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Contingency Planning Memorandum "Crisis Between Ukraine and Russia" argued, a major Ukraine-Russia confrontation has significant implications for the United States. Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, few aspects of the Minsk II agreement have been implemented and heavy fighting could resume, precipitating an even deeper crisis between Russia and the West. 

See more in Ukraine; Conflict Assessment; Territorial Disputes

Rebuilding Economic and Political Stability in Ukraine

Rebuilding Economic and Political Stability in Ukraine

Ukraine faces two severe and immediate challenges: armed pro-Russian separatists in the eastern part of the country and a sharp, nationwide economic deterioration stemming in no small part from that military threat.CFR convened a group of experts to discuss Ukraine’s economic challenges and identify possible ways for outside actors to support Ukrainian policymakers

See more in Ukraine; Territorial Disputes; Conflict Assessment

Reducing Deforestation to Fight Climate Change

Reducing Deforestation to Fight Climate Change

Deforestation is a major man-made source of greenhouse gas emissions, and is especially significant in countries with large tropical forests. CFR hosted a workshop designed to draw lessons from Brazil’s recent success at limiting deforestation, understand why countries such as Indonesia have so far struggled, and identify ways to further reduce deforestation.

See more in Global; Climate Change; Forests and Land Management

Developing a Proportionate Response to a Cyber Incident

Developing a Proportionate Response to a Cyber Incident

Author: Tobias Feakin

As offensive cyber activity becomes more prevalent, policymakers will be challenged to develop proportionate responses to disruptive or destructive attacks. Tobias Feakin outlines the variables that each state should consider in determining the appropriate response to a state-sponsored cyber incident.

See more in Global; Cybersecurity

Global Economics Monthly: August 2015

Author: Robert Kahn

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that China’s request to include its currency, the renminbi (RMB), in an International Monetary Fund (IMF) currency basket, known as special drawing right (SDR), is political as much as economic in intent and effect. The inclusion would signal a milestone in China’s transition to a less-regulated economy. 

See more in China; Economics

Oil Prices, Low-Carbon Energy, and Climate Policy

Oil Prices, Low-Carbon Energy, and Climate Policy

For decades, oil prices have influenced the outlook for alternatives to oil and policies that support those alternatives. Expensive oil makes substitutes more appealing; cheap oil makes the economic case for alternatives that much more difficult. High prices in the 1970s kick-started clean energy, including the first modern electric vehicles, while the oil slump beginning in the 1980s pummeled sources like wind and solar power and undermined the push for more fuel-efficient cars.

See more in Global; Energy and Environment