All CFR Reports

Renewed Confrontation in Georgia

Renewed Confrontation in Georgia

Author: David J. Kramer

With U.S.-Russia relations already at their lowest point since the end of the Cold War, renewed confrontation between Russia and Georgia would make matters considerably worse. David J. Kramer analyzes the likelihood of conflict between the two countries in the next twelve to eighteen months.

See more in Georgia; Conflict Prevention

Growing Stress on Jordan

Growing Stress on Jordan

Authors: Robert Satloff and David Schenker

Although the Hashemite Kingdom has vitiated its most potent tribal and Islamist domestic political opposition, the Muslim Brotherhood. But as the risk of domestic unrest has diminished, the potential for spillover from the Syrian conflict has grown, posing an increasing threat to Jordan.

See more in Jordan; Diplomacy and Statecraft; Refugees and the Displaced

Armed Confrontation Between China and India

Armed Confrontation Between China and India

Author: Daniel S. Markey

Although China and India have repeatedly demonstrated a mutual desire to prevent conflict, the potential for their relationship to deteriorate is ever present. A border clash, conflict with Pakistan, maritime skirmish, or crisis over Tibet could raise tensions to the point of armed confrontation. Daniel S. Markey explains how the United States can promote peaceful relations between the world's two largest countries.

See more in China; India; Diplomacy and Statecraft; Regional Security

Crisis Over Ukraine

Crisis Over Ukraine

Author: Steven Pifer

As a 2009 Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Contingency Planning Memorandum "Crisis Between Ukraine and Russia" argued, a major Ukraine-Russia confrontation has significant implications for the United States. Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, few aspects of the Minsk II agreement have been implemented and heavy fighting could resume, precipitating an even deeper crisis between Russia and the West. 

See more in Ukraine; Conflict Assessment; Territorial Disputes

Libya’s Escalating Civil War

Libya’s Escalating Civil War

Author: Daniel P. Serwer

The potential chaos highlighted by a 2011 Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Contingency Planning Memorandum, "Post-Qaddafi Instability in Libya," has come to fruition. Daniel P. Serwer outlines the unfolding crisis and recommends steps the United States, Europe, and Arab countries can take to help mitigate the fallout.

See more in Libya; Conflict Prevention; Fragile or Failed States

Strategic Risks of Ambiguity in Cyberspace

Strategic Risks of Ambiguity in Cyberspace

Author: Benjamin Brake

Ambiguity in cyberspace—in terms of who is responsible for and the intent of a cyberattack—poses a growing risk of unnecessary military escalation in and outside the cyber domain. Benjamin Brake details how the Obama administration can strengthen its ability to correctly and efficiently attribute an ambiguous attack, reduce the likelihood of its escalation, and mitigate the consequences.

See more in Global; Cybersecurity

Conflict in the South China Sea

Conflict in the South China Sea

Author: Bonnie S. Glaser

Territorial disputes in the South China Sea continue to be a source of tension and potential conflict between China and other countries in the region. Bonnie S. Glaser argues that the United States should help lower the risk of conflict in the region, including the potential for dangerous military incidents involving U.S. and Chinese military forces.

See more in Asia and Pacific; Conflict Prevention

Nigeria's 2015 Presidential Election

Nigeria's 2015 Presidential Election

Author: John Campbell

The 2015 elections again may precipitate violence that could destabilize Nigeria, and Washington has even less leverage in Abuja than it did in 2011. CFR Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies John Campbell analyzes new concerns about Nigeria's fraught politics.

See more in Nigeria; Elections

Renewed Conflict in Lebanon

Renewed Conflict in Lebanon

Author: Mona Yacoubian
This memo assesses the impact of spillover from the ongoing civil war in Syria on Lebanon's security and proposes several steps the United States should take to lessen the likelihood of sectarian violence and instability in Lebanon.

See more in Lebanon; Conflict Prevention; Regional Security

Dangerous Space Incidents

Dangerous Space Incidents

Author: Micah Zenko

Dangerous incidents in outer space pose an increasing threat to U.S. assets and risk escalating into militarized crises. Douglas Dillon Fellow Micah Zenko details how the Obama administration could reduce the likelihood of such crises, or mitigate their consequences should they occur.

See more in Global; Space

Political Instability in Jordan

Political Instability in Jordan

Authors: Robert Satloff and David Schenker

Robert Satloff and David Schenker of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy describe conceivable contingencies that pose serious threats to Jordan's stability and provide recommendations on how U.S. policymakers can help manage potentially destabilizing economic and political change in the country.

See more in Conflict Prevention; Jordan; Diplomacy and Statecraft

Electoral Violence in Kenya

Electoral Violence in Kenya

Author: Joel D. Barkan

In the run-up to Kenya's March 2013 elections, the United States can take measures to prevent a repeat of the electoral violence that broke out across the country in 2007.

See more in Kenya; Elections

Political Unrest in Venezuela

Political Unrest in Venezuela

Author: Patrick Duddy

In Venezuela's upcoming elections, President Hugo Chavez—suffering from poor health—faces his strongest challenger yet. Former ambassador Patrick D. Duddy argues that the United States should prepare for political unrest.

See more in Elections; Venezuela