All CFR Reports

Electoral Violence in Nigeria

Electoral Violence in Nigeria

Author: John Campbell

This Contingency Planning Memorandum describes the events and trends that indicate Nigerian elections are following a violent trajectory and recommends U.S. policy options for preventing and containing fragmentation of Nigerian society.

See more in Elections; Nigeria

A Third Lebanon War

A Third Lebanon War

Author: Daniel C. Kurtzer

This Contingency Planning Memorandum assesses scenarios and warning signs of renewed Israel-Hezbollah conflict and recommends U.S. action to prevent a "Third Lebanon War."

See more in Conflict Prevention; Lebanon

Renewed Conflict in Sudan

Renewed Conflict in Sudan

Author: Katherine Almquist Knopf

Sudan faces the prospect of renewed violence between north and south over the next twelve to eighteen months. Overwhelmingly in favor of independence, the south will either secede peacefully through a credible referendum process as agreed to in the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) or pursue this by force if the CPA should collapse. This Center for Preventive Action Contingency Planning Memorandum presents the likely triggers of renewed civil war and discusses the U.S. policy options for preventing it from happening and mitigating its consequences in the event that it does.

See more in Conflict Prevention; Sudan

Terrorism and Indo-Pakistani Escalation

Terrorism and Indo-Pakistani Escalation

Author: Daniel S. Markey

India faces the real prospect of another major terrorist attack by Pakistan-based terrorist organizations in the near future, an event that would jeopardize important U.S. security interests in South Asia. This Center for Preventive Action Contingency Planning Memorandum examines the factors that would condition India's response; the consequences of Indian military retaliation and Pakistani counterretaliation for the United States; and Washington's policy options for preventing and containing the crisis.

See more in India; Terrorist Attacks

An Israeli Strike on Iran

An Israeli Strike on Iran

Author: Steven Simon

Israel would regard any expansion of nuclear weapons capability within its region as an intolerable threat to its survival, and as such regards Iran's developing nuclear program with concern, in turn causing speculation that the Israeli government may choose to attack Iran's nuclear installations. This Center for Preventive Action Contingency Planning Memorandum assesses the likelihood of an Israeli strike on Iran, the policy options available to diminish that likelihood, the implications should it take place, and measures that can be taken to mitigate the consequences should it occur.

 

See more in Iran; Israel; Wars and Warfare

Political Instability in Egypt

Political Instability in Egypt

Author: Steven A. Cook

Egypt is now entering a period of political transition with the expectation that President Hosni Mubarak's almost twenty-eight-year tenure will shortly come to an end. This Center for Preventive Action Contingency Planning Memorandum assesses the possibility of a troubled leadership succession or an Islamist push for political power, the implications for the United States, and policy steps the U.S. government might take depending on what it determines as its broader policy objectives in Egypt.

See more in Egypt

Reversal in Iraq

Reversal in Iraq

Author: Stephen D. Biddle

Iraq is currently in the early stages of a negotiated end to an intense ethnosectarian war. As such, there are several contingencies in which recent, mostly positive trends in Iraq could be reversed, threatening U.S. national interests. This Center for Preventive Action Contingency Planning Memorandum by Stephen Biddle assesses four interrelated scenarios in Iraq that could derail the prospects for peace and stability in the short to medium term and posits concrete policy options to limit U.S. vulnerability to the possibility of such reversals.

See more in Iraq; Wars and Warfare

If the U.S. Dollar Plummets

If the U.S. Dollar Plummets

Author: Brad W. Setser

The scale of financing needed to support the U.S. fiscal deficit—together with the Federal Reserve’s policy of keeping U.S. interest rates low to ward off deflation—has revived concerns about a sudden and sharp depreciation of the U.S. dollar. This Center for Preventive Action Contingency Planning Memorandum by Brad W. Setser examines potential triggers and indicators of such a crisis and posits concrete policy options to limit U.S. vulnerability to the possibility of a plummeting dollar.

See more in United States; Monetary Policy

Strategic Stability in the Second Nuclear Age

Strategic Stability in the Second Nuclear Age

Author: Gregory D. Koblentz

The world has entered a second nuclear age shaped by rising nuclear states and military technologies. Gregory Koblentz argues that the United States should work with the other nuclear-armed states to manage threats to nuclear stability in the near term and establish processes for multilateral arms control efforts over the longer term.

See more in Global; Nonproliferation, Arms Control, and Disarmament

Limiting Armed Drone Proliferation

Limiting Armed Drone Proliferation

Authors: Micah Zenko and Sarah E. Kreps

In this Council Special Report, Douglas Dillon Fellow Micah Zenko and Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow Sarah Kreps argue that it is essential to begin working now to expand and establish rules and norms governing armed drones. By doing so, they predict, the United States will create standards of behavior that other countries will be more likely to follow.

See more in Global; Drones; Nonproliferation, Arms Control, and Disarmament

Afghanistan After the Drawdown

Afghanistan After the Drawdown

Authors: Seth G. Jones and Keith Crane

The United States maintains important interests in Afghanistan, even as most U.S. and allied troops are withdrawn in 2014. Seth G. Jones and Keith Crane assess the political, security, and economic challenges facing U.S. policymakers in Afghanistan and evaluate a range of policy options.

See more in Afghanistan; Wars and Warfare; Diplomacy and Statecraft

The Future of U.S. Special Operations Forces

The Future of U.S. Special Operations Forces

Author: Linda Robinson

In the past ten years, U.S. special operations forces have honed their counterterrorism manhunting ability with great operational success. They now are at a critical inflection point in their development where resources should be realigned to successfully employ the other of their two basic capabilities—working alongside indigenous forces to combat national and transnational threats.

See more in United States; Special Operations