All CFR Reports

Global Economics Monthly February 2016

Author: Robert Kahn

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that the idea of capital control is less radical than it seems; although comprehensive liberalization is theoretically the ideal option, capital controls may be China’s best chance to end the panic roiling global markets.

See more in Asia and Pacific; Economics

No Helping Hand: Federal Worker-Retraining Policy

No Helping Hand: Federal Worker-Retraining Policy

Authors: Edward Alden and Rebecca Strauss

A decade ago the United States had the lowest share of long-term unemployed workers among developed nations. But today U.S. long-term unemployment levels are nearly as high as those in Europe, despite stronger overall U.S. economic performance. This Progress Report and Scorecard demonstrates that U.S. federal employment and training programs that assist job seekers do little to help the long-term unemployed prepare for different careers.

See more in United States; Labor; Education

Global Economics Monthly January 2016

Author: Robert Kahn

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that 2016 looks set to be a volatile year in which geopolitics and hard-to-quantify policy dilemmas create significant uncertainty in markets. Policymakers will be asked to make tough decisions about where and when to intervene in markets at a time when their capacity to deal with crisis is increasing challenged, suggesting the road ahead could continue to be bumpy.

See more in Global; Economics

Preventive Priorities Survey: 2016

Preventive Priorities Survey: 2016

The Center for Preventive Action's annual Preventive Priorities Survey (PPS) evaluates ongoing and potential conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring in the coming year and their impact on U.S. interests. The PPS aims to help the U.S. policymaking community prioritize competing conflict prevention and mitigation demands.

View the accompanying online interactive: CPA's Global Conflict Tracker

See more in Global; Conflict Assessment; Conflict Prevention

Unified Korea and the Future of the U.S.-South Korea Alliance

Unified Korea and the Future of the U.S.-South Korea Alliance

Author: Sue Mi Terry

Unification would constitute one of the most decisive changes in the history of Northeast Asia since the outbreak of the Korean War in 1950, with far-reaching implications for the United States and the balance of power in the region. Sue Mi Terry outlines steps that the United States should take to increase the likelihood that the U.S.-South Korea alliance would survive the disappearance of North Korea.

See more in South Korea; United States; Diplomacy and Statecraft; Regime Changes

Managing Japan-South Korea Tensions

Managing Japan-South Korea Tensions

Author: Mark E. Manyin

Fifty years after the establishment of official diplomatic relations between Japan and South Korea, continued animosity between the United States’ two Northeast Asian allies remains a problem for Washington, hampering its ability to deal with the challenges posed by North Korea, China, and a host of nontraditional security threats. Mark E. Manyin argues that, for the United States, the costs of nonintervention are rising.

See more in South Korea; Japan; Diplomacy and Statecraft

Still Distant Neighbors: South Korea-Japan Relations Fifty Years After  Diplomatic Normalization

Still Distant Neighbors: South Korea-Japan Relations Fifty Years After Diplomatic Normalization

Author: Cheol Hee Park

Over the past half century, South Korea and Japan have established themselves as firm and reliable allies of the United States, contributing to peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region. But despite increasing cultural exchange and deepening economic ties between the two countries, Korea-Japan relations have shown deteriorated. Cheol Hee Park explains that, given the deteriorating security situation in East Asia and the emergence of an assertive China, the United States has an interest in repairing Korea-Japan relations.

See more in South Korea; Japan; Diplomacy and Statecraft

Global Economics Monthly December 2015

Author: Robert Kahn

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that the European Union (EU) faces rising populist pressure, reflecting long-term challenges to economic policymaking that can only partly be addressed by a cyclical recovery and debt relief. By strengthening the credibility of economic policy and the region’s resilience to shocks, better policy coordination and a faster path to economic union would go far toward securing a better economic future for Europe and addressing some underlying causes of populism.

See more in Europe; Economics

Fiscal Breakeven Oil Prices: Uses, Abuses, and Opportunities for Improvement

Fiscal Breakeven Oil Prices: Uses, Abuses, and Opportunities for Improvement

Authors: Blake Clayton and Michael A. Levi

Fiscal "breakeven" oil prices have become popular among analysts and decision-makers as indicators of oil-producing countries' economic and political stability, but there are limits to the insights that breakeven prices provide. Blake Clayton and Michael A. Levi assess the potential value and most important pitfalls involved in using fiscal breakeven oil prices.

 

See more in Global; Oil; Economics

Global Economics Monthly November 2015

Author: Robert Kahn

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that the concerns driven by China's economic problems are modest compared to the 1997 Asian financial crisis or the Great Recession. However, there are reasons for concern: large financial imbalances, weak global growth, inadequate official resources, and political pressures. While a severe global financial crisis remains a tail risk, policymakers need to be prepared to respond. 

See more in Global; Economics