Other Reports

Various reports from CFR, posted at the discretion of CFR's president and director of studies.

Global Economics Monthly May 2017

Author: Robert Kahn

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that British Prime Minister Theresa May’s decision to seek early elections comes as the economic costs of Brexit are becoming more apparent. While the removal of electoral uncertainty may be helpful in Brexit negotiations, the new relationship between the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU), as well as the rest of the world, will take years to work out. An extended transition to an uncertain future will further stress UK and EU economies.

See more in Global; Economics

Global Economics Monthly March 2017

Author: Robert Kahn

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn writes that Greece and its creditors are again locked in a showdown over reforms, cash, and debt relief. Another cliff-hanger ahead of heavy July debt payments looks likely. Extend-and-pretend is a dead end for Greece and an increasingly populist Europe, and a more ambitious agreement seems ruled out by bailout fatigue in creditor countries. Markets are once again underestimating the risks of “Grexit.”

See more in Europe; Economics

The Korean Pivot: Seoul’s Strategic Choices and Rising Rivalries in Northeast Asia

Authors: Scott A. Snyder, Darcie Draudt, and Sungtae "Jacky" Park

As U.S.-China tensions intensify and as the North Korean threat grows, the importance of the Republic of Korea (ROK, or South Korea) as a pivot state in East Asia and as a valuable ally for the United States has become clearer than ever.

See more in South Korea; China; Diplomacy and Statecraft; International Organizations and Alliances

Global Economics Monthly January 2017

Author: Robert Kahn

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn writes that markets showed impressive resilience in the face of a range of geopolitical shocks in 2016, but recent market moves suggest this year could be different. A greater range of possible, if unlikely, political challenges, as well as U.S. monetary policy normalization, could bring a crisis back to the fore. 

See more in Global; Economics

Preventive Priorities Survey: 2017

The Center for Preventive Action's annual Preventive Priorities Survey (PPS) evaluates ongoing and potential conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring in the coming year and their impact on U.S. interests. The PPS aims to help the U.S. policymaking community prioritize competing conflict prevention and mitigation demands.

View the accompanying online interactive: CPA's Global Conflict Tracker

See more in Global; Conflict Prevention; Conflict Assessment

Global Economics Monthly December 2016

Author: Robert Kahn

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn writes that financial markets rallied following the U.S. election, on hopes that President-Elect Donald J. Trump’s fiscal stimulus and deregulation initiatives would spur corporate profits and growth. Perhaps so, but a strong case could be made for the opposite: that Trump’s economic agenda will prove disruptive to trade and growth, face growing headwinds in Congress, and exert a contractionary impact on the U.S. economy. 

See more in Americas; Economics

Global Economics Monthly November 2016

Author: Robert Kahn

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that the Group of Twenty (G20) policymakers agree on the importance of stronger and more inclusive growth to address growing populism, but disagree on who—central banks, treasuries, or legislatures—should take the lead. This standoff all but guarantees that the global recovery will continue to disappoint.

See more in Global; Economics