Various reports from CFR, posted at the discretion of CFR's president and director of studies.
Unification would constitute one of the most decisive changes in the history of Northeast Asia since the outbreak of the Korean War in 1950, with far-reaching implications for the United States and the balance of power in the region. Sue Mi Terry outlines steps that the United States should take to increase the likelihood that the U.S.-South Korea alliance would survive the disappearance of North Korea.
See more in South Korea; United States; Diplomacy and Statecraft; Regime Changes
Fifty years after the establishment of official diplomatic relations between Japan and South Korea, continued animosity between the United States’ two Northeast Asian allies remains a problem for Washington, hampering its ability to deal with the challenges posed by North Korea, China, and a host of nontraditional security threats. Mark E. Manyin argues that, for the United States, the costs of nonintervention are rising.
See more in South Korea; Japan; Diplomacy and Statecraft
Over the past half century, South Korea and Japan have established themselves as firm and reliable allies of the United States, contributing to peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region. But despite increasing cultural exchange and deepening economic ties between the two countries, Korea-Japan relations have shown deteriorated. Cheol Hee Park explains that, given the deteriorating security situation in East Asia and the emergence of an assertive China, the United States has an interest in repairing Korea-Japan relations.
See more in South Korea; Japan; Diplomacy and Statecraft
The U.S. government's effort to persuade other countries to adopt norms of responsibility for cyberspace faces a significant obstacle: computers located in the United States host much of the malicious software used to carry out cyberattacks. Robert K. Knake explains.
See more in United States; Internet Policy; Cybersecurity
Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that the European Union (EU) faces rising populist pressure, reflecting long-term challenges to economic policymaking that can only partly be addressed by a cyclical recovery and debt relief. By strengthening the credibility of economic policy and the region’s resilience to shocks, better policy coordination and a faster path to economic union would go far toward securing a better economic future for Europe and addressing some underlying causes of populism.
See more in Europe; Economics
Fiscal "breakeven" oil prices have become popular among analysts and decision-makers as indicators of oil-producing countries' economic and political stability, but there are limits to the insights that breakeven prices provide. Blake Clayton and Michael A. Levi assess the potential value and most important pitfalls involved in using fiscal breakeven oil prices.
See more in Global; Oil; Economics
Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that the concerns driven by China's economic problems are modest compared to the 1997 Asian financial crisis or the Great Recession. However, there are reasons for concern: large financial imbalances, weak global growth, inadequate official resources, and political pressures. While a severe global financial crisis remains a tail risk, policymakers need to be prepared to respond.
See more in Global; Economics
Fuel economy standards are a central element of U.S. energy security and climate change strategy. Varun Sivaram and Michael A. Levi explore the case for maintaining stringent Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards.
See more in United States; Oil; Energy Policy
Policymakers around the world are increasingly concerned about the security of information and communications technology (ICT) supply chains. Danielle Kriz explains how the U.S. government can defend its ICT supply chains against counterfeit products, malicious code, and cyberattacks.
See more in United States; Cybersecurity
Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that China's growth prospect lies somewhere between hard-landing and muddle-through scenarios. However, uncertainty remains and is already being felt strongly and likely to put increasing pressure on emerging markets through trade contraction and financial contagion. For the United States, fragility in emerging markets is the critical risk and will dominate economic decision-making for months if not years to come.
See more in Global; Economics
Ukraine faces two severe and immediate challenges: armed pro-Russian separatists in the eastern part of the country and a sharp, nationwide economic deterioration stemming in no small part from that military threat.CFR convened a group of experts to discuss Ukraine’s economic challenges and identify possible ways for outside actors to support Ukrainian policymakers
See more in Ukraine; Territorial Disputes; Conflict Assessment
Deforestation is a major man-made source of greenhouse gas emissions, and is especially significant in countries with large tropical forests. CFR hosted a workshop designed to draw lessons from Brazil’s recent success at limiting deforestation, understand why countries such as Indonesia have so far struggled, and identify ways to further reduce deforestation.
See more in Global; Climate Change; Forests and Land Management
As offensive cyber activity becomes more prevalent, policymakers will be challenged to develop proportionate responses to disruptive or destructive attacks. Tobias Feakin outlines the variables that each state should consider in determining the appropriate response to a state-sponsored cyber incident.
See more in Global; Cybersecurity
Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that China’s request to include its currency, the renminbi (RMB), in an International Monetary Fund (IMF) currency basket, known as special drawing right (SDR), is political as much as economic in intent and effect. The inclusion would signal a milestone in China’s transition to a less-regulated economy.
See more in China; Economics
Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that if Greece exits the eurozone, introducing a new currency could occur quickly; getting broader economic policies right is the more difficult challenge facing the country.
See more in Greece; Economics
For decades, oil prices have influenced the outlook for alternatives to oil and policies that support those alternatives. Expensive oil makes substitutes more appealing; cheap oil makes the economic case for alternatives that much more difficult. High prices in the 1970s kick-started clean energy, including the first modern electric vehicles, while the oil slump beginning in the 1980s pummeled sources like wind and solar power and undermined the push for more fuel-efficient cars.
See more in Global; Energy and Environment
In recent years, frugal and reverse innovation have gained attention as potential strategies for increasing the quality and accessibility of health care while slowing the growth in its costs. Thomas J. Bollyky argues that the demand for these types of innovation is increasing and outlines three practical questions for policymakers seeking real investments and results.
See more in Global; Diseases, Noncommunicable; Innovation
South Korean opinion leaders have increasingly investigated the idea of the ROK as a middle power as a primary framework for evaluating the opportunities and constraints arising from its emerging international role. The essays commissioned in this volume provide an initial evaluation of South Korean efforts to make substantive contributions to the international agenda as a middle power.
See more in Asia and Pacific; Politics and Strategy
Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that the United States should empower the International Monetary Fund and Group of Twenty to better address currency manipulation concerns.
See more in United States; Economics
The use of social media and other Internet-enabled communications by the self-proclaimed Islamic State is pushing the United States and other democracies to react to the abuse of liberal freedoms by illiberal forces. CFR Visiting Fellow David P. Fidler outlines ways to counter the Islamic State's online onslaught through policies anchored in free speech, transparency, and accountability.
See more in Syria; Iraq; Cybersecurity; Internet Policy