International financial flows have declined significantly since 2008, and world trade is stagnating. Rather than portending a period of de-globalization, Sebastian Mallaby analyzes the data more closely to suggest a reset, not a reversal, of globalization.
Gayle Tzemach Lemmon questions whether America’s post-9/11 wars in Afghanistan and Iraq will retake center stage with the potential appointment of a military leader to secretary of defense. According to Lemmon, “If confirmed, Mattis…would force Americans to confront these conflicts at a time when the United States has done a good job forgetting to feel like a country at war.”
There are important lessons for the incoming Trump administration on Iran they can learn from their predecessors, argues CFR’s Ray Takeyh. They should recognize that the Islamic Republic is a unitary nation-state purged of reformers, that it is susceptible to a threat of force, and that Iran is not interested in normalizing relations with the United States.
Historian Niall Ferguson has won the fifteenth annual Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Arthur Ross Book Award for Kissinger: 1923-1968: The Idealist (Penguin Press), the first in a two-volume biography of the former national security advisor Henry A. Kissinger, and will receive $15,000. On December 14, CFR will honor Ferguson—a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and Harvard University’s Center for European Studies—and the other awardees at a cocktail reception hosted by Gideon Rose, editor of Foreign Affairs and chair of the independent award jury.
Max Boot argues that Petraeus would be a superbly qualified secretary of state—one who already has more diplomatic experience than most of those previously selected for this position. And far from giving a pro-war tilt to the new administration, Petraeus would be an important restraint on a president who has spoken far too freely of bombing various countries and of torturing terrorists.
The Obama obsession with Israeli settlement activity ruined his policy toward Israel, prevented the negotiations he wanted, and was not based on the facts. The Trump administration should take a very different approach, Elliott Abrams argues in Foreign Policy magazine.
Writing in Politico, Philip Gordon argues that president-elect Trump's foreign policy may prove less deliberately radical than people think; it's hallmarks will instead be accidents, indiscipline, and incoherence.
Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn writes that financial markets rallied following the U.S. election, on hopes that President-Elect Donald J. Trump’s fiscal stimulus and deregulation initiatives would spur corporate profits and growth. Perhaps so, but a strong case could be made for the opposite: that Trump’s economic agenda will prove disruptive to trade and growth, face growing headwinds in Congress, and exert a contractionary impact on the U.S. economy.
State fragility poses a significant threat to international security, contributing to conflict onset and relapse, the global refugee crisis, the expansion of extremist groups, and public health emergencies like the Ebola epidemic.
Italy’s vote on constitutional reforms, which may determine whether the country can escape its economic doldrums and rescue its ailing banking system, could have consequences for all of Europe, says CFR’s Robert Kahn.
Learn more about CFR’s mission and its work over the past year in the 2016 Annual Report. The Annual Report spotlights new initiatives, high-profile events, and authoritative scholarship from CFR experts, and includes a message from CFR President Richard N. Haass. Read and download »