"A dollar renaissance is unlikely to prove as agonising as it did in the past. The biggest risk in 2014 is going to be the more immediate impact that the Fed's unwinding of its quantitative easing programme will have on global borrowing costs. Chinese economic growth – a big driver of emerging economies – is another wild card. But a stronger dollar will not prove painless and policy makers in the developing world should not be complacent."
"Aside from outliers such as Cuba, North Korea, and Turkmenistan, today's authoritarian regimes do not seek total domination of all the means of mass communication. What they want instead is what we might call "effective media control"—enough for them to convey their strength and puff up their claims to legitimacy while undermining potential alternatives. Such state dominance—whether exerted through overtly state-run or merely state-pliable media outlets—enables regimes to put progovernment narratives front and center while using the power of editorial omission to limit systematic criticism of official policies and actions."
A preview of world events in the coming week from CFR.org: Iraq deals with a renewed al-Qaeda threat; Egypt holds a constitutional referendum; and Thailand braces for a new round of pre-election protests.
A new interactive guide from the Council on Foreign Relations examines the threat that child marriage poses both to the prosperity and stability of the countries in which it is prevalent and to U.S. development and foreign policy interests.
In his testimony before the House Committee on Financial Services' Subcommittee on Monetary Policy and Trade, Benn Steil argues that changes in U.S. monetary policy can have significant impact on emerging-market capital inflows and outflows and that the resulting exchange rate movements against the dollar can have large and rapid effects on the level of inflation and exports.
Mark Lagon describes how over three-quarters of trafficking victims in the global economy are exploited for their labor, and explains how much of this modern-day slavery is linked to the fishing industry.
Sound fiscal policy, based not on sequestration but on revenue increases and entitlement reform, is the key to a strong economic recovery and to smoothing the unwinding of unconventional monetary policy, argues CFR Co-Chairman Robert E. Rubin.
Child marriage remains widespread in developing countries, disproportionately affecting girls and endangering their lives and livelihoods. Rooted in cultural tradition and poverty, the practice not only violates human rights laws but also threatens stability and economic development.
CFR Senior Fellow Gayle Lemmon moderates a conversation with Liesl Gerntholtz of Human Rights Watch and Annie Bunting of York University on best practices for preventing child marriage during times of social instability.
Speakers: Mary Ellen Iskenderian and Steve Hollingworth Presider: Isobel Coleman
CFR Senior Fellow Isobel Coleman leads a conversation with Mary Ellen Iskenderian of Women's World Banking and Steve Hollingworth of Freedom from Hunger about how savings are blazing the next frontier in poverty eradication.
This meeting of the Roundtable Series on Digital Policy discusses U.S. efforts to work with countries in the developing world on increasing their connectivity, content, and capacity to participate in global efforts to safeguard the open Internet.
Authors: Craig K. Elwell, M. Maureen Murphy, and Michael V. Seitzinger
"This report has three major sections. The first section answers some basic questions about Bitcoin and the operation of the Bitcoin network and its interaction with the current dollar-based monetary system. The second section summarizes likely reasons for and against widespread Bitcoin adoption. The third section discusses legal and regulatory matters that have been raised by Bitcoin and other digital currencies."
International institutions provide a platform for promoting, formalizing, and enforcing rules, norms, and regimes that regulate state behavior. As a leader in many of these fora, the United States is well positioned to promote its national interests through multilateral partnerships. Multilateral consensus is uniquely capable of legitimizing U.S. action and spreading burdens of leadership.
"A successful transition in China will most likely entail political as well as economic reforms, while failure would undermine still-widespread trust in the country's political leadership, resulting in repression at home and military confrontation abroad."
Despite the administration's much-publicized Asia "pivot," the spreading impact of the Syria conflict and negotiations to limit Iran's nuclear program will continue to top the foreign policy docket, says CFR's James M. Lindsay.
The Council on Foreign Relations' David Rockefeller Studies Program—CFR's "think tank"—is home to more than seventy full-time, adjunct, and visiting scholars and practitioners (called "fellows"). Their expertise covers the world's major regions as well as the critical issues shaping today's global agenda. Download the printable CFR Experts Guide.
The author examines Pakistan's complex role in U.S. foreign policy and advocates for a two-pronged approach that works to quarantine threats while integrating Pakistan into the broader U.S. agenda in Asia.