Authors: Steven A. Cook and Hussein Ibish The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
Since the ruling Justice and Development Party took power in November 2002, Turkey’s relations with Gulf Arab states have gone through four distinct phases, writes CFR’s Steven A. Cook. Turkey started out as a good neighbor and problem solver before it made a bid for regional leadership, which led to a period of estrangement and then an uneasy rapprochement today.
Since the 2008 financial crisis, the conventional wisdom has been that a long, difficult recovery for eurozone economies will eventually lead to strong growth. But this narrative is losing credibility.
The likelihood that Armenians and Azerbaijanis will clash over Nagorno-Karabakh in the next twelve months is high. This Contingency Planning Memorandum details how the United States can prevent renewed conflict over the disputed region.
The United States should consider the effects of its intervention in northern Syria on both Turkey and terrorist groups it seeks to destroy, and reconcile the contradictory aspects of its relationship with Turkey.
Germany’s foreign minister reports “astonishment and agitation.” The French president protests indignantly about unsolicited “outside advice .” Even Secretary of State John F. Kerry sees behavior that is “inappropriate.” President-elect Donald Trump’s weekend interview, in which he casually predicted the breakup of the European Union, has certainly attracted attention.
The defeat of Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s constitutional reforms is another sign that voter anger over poor economic performance is driving anti-establishment politics across Europe, says CFR’s Sebastian Mallaby.
Italy’s vote on constitutional reforms, which may determine whether the country can escape its economic doldrums and rescue its ailing banking system, could have consequences for all of Europe, says CFR’s Robert Kahn.
Many within the Turkish political elite and their supporters, who disdain the American establishment, are supportive of the election of Donald J. Trump to the U.S. presidency, argues CFR’s Steven A. Cook. This, however, is based on a misreading of Turkey’s relationship with the American ruling class.
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