Middle East

Foreign Affairs Article

The Black Swan of Cairo

Authors: Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Mark Blyth

The upheavals in the Middle East have much in common with the recent global financial crisis: both were plausible worst-case scenarios whose probability was dramatically underestimated.

See more in Middle East, Economics

Foreign Affairs Article

Enforcing the Peace

Author: Howard M. Sachar

The Israelis and the Palestinians will never find peace if they are left to negotiate on their own. As has been the case throughout history, great-power leadership is the missing ingredient. Washington must lead the way in enforcing a final-status settlement.

See more in Israel, Palestinian Authority

Foreign Affairs Article

The Dangers of a Nuclear Iran

Authors: Eric S. Edelman, Andrew F. Krepinevich Jr., and Evan Braden Montgomery

It is unclear how a nuclear-armed Iran would weigh the costs, benefits, and risks of brinkmanship, meaning that it could be difficult to deter Tehran from attacking the United States' interests or partners in the region.

See more in Iran, Proliferation