Mideast expert David Makovsky says the widening conflict in the Middle East poses a huge challenge for Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and tests the viability of the Lebanese government.
"[T]he number of medium-to-large civil wars under way—there are six in which more than 1,000 people died last year—is low by the standards of the period. This is because they are coming to an end a little sooner. The average length of civil wars dropped from 4.6 to 3.7 years after 1991, according to Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, a professor at the University of Essex.
Mr. Gleditsch is one of a growing number of political scientists studying civil wars. The field, long overshadowed by studies of superpower conflict, is coming into its own. Its participants do not claim that all civil wars are the same—the range of causes and types of conflict is obvious. But the sheer number of civil wars allows scholars to attempt, at least, a quantitative approach to the factors that affect the wars' outcomes."
In this New York Times Op-Ed Tzipi Livni, a former vice prime minister and minister of foreign affairs of Israel, writes about Lebanon's upcoming parliamentary elections and comments that voting alone does not constitute democracy, but rather the values of participating parties must also be taken into account.
This monograph assesses the claim that future warfare is a matter of nonstate actors employing irregular methods against Western states through a detailed analysis of Hezbollah’s military behavior, coupled with deductive inference from observable Hezbollah behavior in the field to findings for their larger strategic intent for the campaign.
Political violence in Lebanon could spell the return of civil war.
A detailed discourse on the reasons Israel's second war in Lebanon ended in "failure".
The "July War" showcased Hizballah's evolution into an adaptive, skillful, cohesive fighting force capable of registering some measure of success on the battlefield against a much larger and better equipped enemy, says this report from the Washington Institute.
Human Rights Watch alleges that Hezbollah fired cluster munitions into civilian areas in northern Israel during the recent conflict there.
This briefing summarizes Amnesty International’s assessment of and concerns about violations of international humanitarian law by Hizbullah in its attacks on northern Israel in July and August 2006.
This report from the United States Institute of Peace evaluates Iran's role in the most recent Israel-Hezbollah fighting and in the dynamic political scene left in its wake.
First published in the Jerusalem Post, Kenneth Roth of Human Rights Watch discusses the indiscriminate bombardment in Lebanon during the summer of 2006.
This link is to Amnesty International’s initial assessment and concerns on the destruction of civilian infrastructure in Lebanon that has taken place during the recent conflict. It is based on first-hand information from a field mission which has visited Lebanon; interviews with dozens of victims of the attacks; official statements and press accounts; discussions with UN, Israeli military and Lebanese government officials; and talks with Israeli and Lebanese non-governmental groups.
Haim Malka of the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) argues that Israel's lates war in Lebanon is the product of political inexperience on the part of Israel's current leadership.
This report from Human Rights Watch documents what the organization describes as serious violations of international humanitarian law by Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in Lebanon between July 12 and July 27, 2006, as well as the July 30 attack in Qana. During this period, the IDF killed an estimated 400 people, the vast majority of them civilians, and that number climbed to over 500 by the time this report went to print.
USIP argues that the environment in Lebanon remains unfavourable for a successful UN peacekeeping effort. USIP believes the peacekeeping force is too limited in capability, and that Israeli and US hopes for a forceful mission are likely to be disappointed unless there is a broader peace process.
To encourage the free flow of conversation, the 2011 Corporate Conference was entirely not-for-attribution; however, several conference speakers joined us for sideline interviews further exploring their areas of expertise.
Former Treasury secretary Robert E. Rubin and Nobel Laureate economist Michael Spence on the global economic outlook.
Foreign Affairs editor Gideon Rose and Edward Morse on energy geopolitics.
Additional conference videos include:
The authors assess the political, security, and economic challenges facing U.S. policymakers in Afghanistan and evaluate a range of policy options.
Special operations play a critical role in how the United States confronts irregular threats, but to have long-term strategic impact, the author argues, numerous shortfalls must be addressed.
The story of the tragic and often tormented relationship between the United States and Pakistan, and a call to prepare for the worst, aim for the best, and avoid past mistakes. More
An authoritative and accessible look at what countries must do to build durable and prosperous democracies—and what the United States and others can do to help. More
A groundbreaking analysis of what the changes in American energy mean for the economy, national security, and the environment. More