Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies Publications Archive

Article

Will Brexit Affect U.S. Consumer Confidence? The Outcome May Determine Our Next President

Authors: Benn Steil and Emma Smith
PBS NewsHour

Benn Steil’s June 24 op-ed on the PBS NewsHour Making$ense site, co-authored with Emma Smith, shows the strong relationship between consumer confidence and presidential elections going back to 1952. Current readings suggest an 80% chance of a Clinton victory, but the Brexit aftermath threatens to knock that down significantly.

See more in United States; United Kingdom; Elections; International Organizations and Alliances

Article

Britain’s Awful Vote May Be a Tipping Point

Author: Sebastian Mallaby
Washington Post

The British vote to leave the European Union may come to be seen as a tipping point in global politics, perhaps more consequential than anything since the fall of the Berlin Wall. It may mark the moment when Europe comes face to face with its own constitutional dysfunction, when the idea of the “West” finally ceases to be plausible and when the United States is confirmed in its sense that its interests lie more in Asia than in its traditional Atlantic sphere of influence.

See more in United Kingdom; Treaties and Agreements

Op-Ed

The Economic Shock of a ‘Brexit’

Author: Sebastian Mallaby
Washington Post

For the first time since the start of Britain’s referendum fight over Europe, the polls predict “Brexit.” The four most recent national surveys put the “Leave” side ahead with margins of between one and 10 percentage points. Most people, including many disaffected Britons who want to shake up the system by backing a Brexit, understand that this would mean a political and economic shock. But they underestimate its severity.

See more in United Kingdom; International Organizations and Alliances; Economics

Article

E.U. Referendum Exposes Britain’s Political Decay

Author: Sebastian Mallaby
Washington Post

An isolationist bent to British politics, what Sebastian Mallaby refers to as “little Englandism,” is not new to the British political tradition. While this perspective has long been counter-balanced by a Gladstonian internationalism, debates around Brexit have been conspicuously devoid of such idealism, speaking in a language that appeals only to pocketbooks rather than to common decency.

See more in United Kingdom; International Organizations and Alliances; Politics and Strategy

Other Report China’s G20 Challenge

China’s G20 Challenge

China’s leadership of the Group of Twenty (G20) in 2016 comes at a moment when the role of the G20 itself is being challenged. CFR's Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies and the Asia Global Institute convened a workshop in Hong Kong to assess the agenda facing the G20, why the group had fallen short of expectations in recent years, and whether China’s leadership in 2016 provides an opportunity for renewal. 

See more in China; Economics; International Organizations and Alliances

Foreign Affairs Article

The Clean Energy Revolution

Authors: Varun Sivaram and Teryn Norris

If the world is to avoid climate calamity, it needs to reduce its carbon emissions drastically by the middle of this century—a target that is simply out of reach with existing technology. Varun Sivaram and his co-author present the case for a massive investment in clean energy research and development to reach that goal. 

See more in Global; Renewable Energy

Other Report

Global Economics Monthly May 2016

Author: Robert Kahn

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that the crisis in Venezuela continues to escalate, with no recovery or relief in sight. A messy and chaotic default looms, and the rescue will likely involve a tough adjustment program, large-scale financing from international policymakers, and deep sacrifices from Venezuela’s creditors and, most of all, the Venezuelan people. China’s role, as Venezuela’s largest creditor, will be critical and precedential for other emerging market commodity exporters with too much debt.

See more in Americas; Economics

Other Report The Transatlantic Trade Investment Partnership as a Foreign Policy Tool

The Transatlantic Trade Investment Partnership as a Foreign Policy Tool

What are the ways in which the Transatlantic Trade Investment Partnership (TTIP) could advance the noneconomic foreign policy interests of the United States, the European Union (EU), and EU member states? The Council on Foreign Relations gathered experts—including current and former policymakers, economists, political scientists, investors, and business representatives—to explore whether and how the still-evolving TTIP could be designed to meet foreign policy objectives.

See more in Europe; Trade; Treaties and Agreements

Article

America’s Fatal Flaw in its Competition With China Is Thinking Militarily, Not Economically

Author: Jennifer M. Harris
The WorldPost

Last week, Washington attempted two important policy feats aimed squarely in Beijing’s direction. U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter grabbed headlines by visitingthe South China Sea, after earlier announcing he would scrap a visit to Beijing amid rising tension over territorial disputes in the region.

See more in United States; China; Economics; Military Operations

Other Report

Global Economics Monthly April 2016

Author: Robert Kahn

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that the case for strong and effective Group of Twenty (G20) leadership is as compelling as ever. But if the G20 is to be as effective in noncrisis times as it was in 2008–2009, it needs stronger Chinese leadership, working informally yet closely with the United States—a Group of Two (G2) within the G20. Debt policy is one area where China and the United States should cooperate this year.

See more in Global; Economics