Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn writes that financial markets rallied following the U.S. election, on hopes that President-Elect Donald J. Trump’s fiscal stimulus and deregulation initiatives would spur corporate profits and growth. Perhaps so, but a strong case could be made for the opposite: that Trump’s economic agenda will prove disruptive to trade and growth, face growing headwinds in Congress, and exert a contractionary impact on the U.S. economy.
“Much more even than globalization, technology is going to create upheaval and destroy industries and jobs. This can be for the better, helping us create new and more interesting jobs or freeing up time for leisure and artistic pursuits. But unless we find ways to share the prosperity and help Americans adapt to the coming changes, many could be left worse off than they are,” argue Vivek Wadhwa and Edward Alden.
To continue the extraordinary progress of the past fifteen years, the next U.S. administration should further integrate global health, development, and pandemic preparedness into the U.S. national security architecture, write CFR's Thomas J. Bollyky and Eric Goosby, former U.S. AIDS Coordinator and UN Special Envoy on Tuberculosis.
At climate talks in Morocco, negotiators will try to move forward on issues left unresolved by the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, developed and developing countries still remain far apart on major issues, write CFR’s Varun Sivaram and Sagatom Saha.
“The real progress has been not in Washington—where the idea of an active government role in promoting economic competitiveness remains suspect—but in the states and the largest cities. More and more local governments have taken the lead in developing competitiveness strategies that start from the premise that local prosperity depends in good part on success in international economic competition,” argues CFR Senior Fellow Edward Alden. This is an excerpt from his new book, Failure to Adjust: How Americans Got Left Behind in the Global Economy.
Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that the Group of Twenty (G20) policymakers agree on the importance of stronger and more inclusive growth to address growing populism, but disagree on who—central banks, treasuries, or legislatures—should take the lead. This standoff all but guarantees that the global recovery will continue to disappoint.
Authors: Thomas J. Bollyky and Petros C. Mavroidis Columbia Law School, Center for Law and Economic Studies
Global value chains have changed the way that the world trades. The World Trade Organization (WTO) should embrace the confluence of shared social preferences and trade, where it may exist such as digital trade, food and drug safety, and climate smart-agriculture, as a motivation for advancing international regulatory cooperation. To do that, changes to the corporate governance of the WTO are needed to facilitate the use of plurilateral agreements and to multilateralize progress already occurring bilaterally and regionally.
Sebastian Mallaby uses the framework of central bank power to examine the rise and recent decline of the cult of the expert. He concludes that, ironically, experts need to play the political game if they hope to maintain their legitimacy; and that a healthy democracy is well served by a mix of public accountability and technocratic independence.
The traditional U.S. economic agenda in East Asia needs to be complemented with a push for the policies needed to bring East Asia’s savings down to a level that the region can more easily absorb internally.
In this intriguing prequel to his upcoming book, Sebastian Mallaby reveals a new side to controversial former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan. Greenspan was often accused of trusting too much in markets and being blind to the effects of bubbles, but Mallaby shows that Greenspan, in fact, was the man who knew.
Trade Policy Has Become Politically Unpopular. These Steps Could Help Rehabilitate It. This piece is based on a new CFR discussion paper authored by Edward Alden and Robert E. Litan, titled “A Winning Trade Policy for the United States.”