The Center for Preventive Action's annual Preventive Priorities Survey (PPS) evaluates ongoing and potential conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring in the coming year and their impact on U.S. interests. The PPS aims to help the U.S. policymaking community prioritize competing conflict prevention and mitigation demands.
Following its independence in 2011, three years of civil war have left South Sudan on the cusp of full-scale genocide, with its sovereignty discredited by warring elites, asserts our new Council Special Report, Ending South Sudan's Civil War. Katherine Almquist Knopf, author of the report, argues that the United Nations and the African Union, with support from the United States, should establish an international transitional administration to run the country for a finite period. Read the report to learn how the United States can help end South Sudan's civil war.
The growing rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran—and by extension, their allies and proxy forces in the region—will likely shape the Middle East for many years, and possibly even decades, to come. The conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran, while historical and religious in origin, has evolved into a geopolitical competition. The Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations convened an international group of twenty experts at the Tufts University European Center in Talloires, France, on July 6–7, 2016, for the workshop "What to Do About the Saudi-Iranian Rivalry?"
The Center for Preventive Action's Global Conflict Tracker is an interactive guide to ongoing conflicts around the world of concern to the United States. It covers nearly thirty conflicts with background information and is updated daily with resources on each conflict.
Since 2001, the United States and its international partners have expended substantial resources to secure, stabilize, and rebuild Afghanistan. Recent developments, however, indicate that progress toward these strategic goals is slipping. Read our contingency planning memorandum by Seth G. Jones of the RAND Corporation on, "Strategic Reversal in Afghanistan."
To ensure the success of Myanmar's historic democratic transition, the United States should revise its outdated and counterproductive sanctions policy, according to Priscilla A. Clapp, former chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Myanmar.
With U.S.-Russia relations already at their lowest point since the end of the Cold War, renewed confrontation between Russia and Georgia would make matters considerably worse. David J. Kramer analyzes the likelihood of conflict between the two countries in the next twelve to eighteen months.
Although the Hashemite Kingdom has vitiated its most potent tribal and Islamist domestic political opposition, the Muslim Brotherhood. But as the risk of domestic unrest has diminished, the potential for spillover from the Syrian conflict has grown, posing an increasing threat to Jordan.
Although China and India have repeatedly demonstrated a mutual desire to prevent conflict, the potential for their relationship to deteriorate is ever present. A border clash, conflict with Pakistan, maritime skirmish, or crisis over Tibet could raise tensions to the point of armed confrontation. Daniel S. Markey explains how the United States can promote peaceful relations between the world's two largest countries.
As a 2009 Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Contingency Planning Memorandum "Crisis Between Ukraine and Russia" argued, a major Ukraine-Russia confrontation has significant implications for the United States. Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, few aspects of the Minsk II agreement have been implemented and heavy fighting could resume, precipitating an even deeper crisis between Russia and the West.
The risk of a military confrontation between China and Vietnam is rising, as both countries vie for influence in Southeast Asia and claim disputed areas of the South China Sea. Joshua Kurlantzick explains how the United States should seek to defuse tensions and help avert a serious crisis.
There is growing risk of a violent uprising in the West Bank that could be costly to Israelis and Palestinians and harmful to U.S. interests. Steven Simon suggests measures to reduce the probability of West Bank violence and minimize its consequences.
The potential chaos highlighted by a 2011 Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Contingency Planning Memorandum, "Post-Qaddafi Instability in Libya," has come to fruition. Daniel P. Serwer outlines the unfolding crisis and recommends steps the United States, Europe, and Arab countries can take to help mitigate the fallout.
In a new Council Special Report, Enhancing U.S. Support for Peace Operations in Africa, Paul D. Williams argues that greater U.S. involvement is necessary to enhance the quality and success of peacekeeping missions.
The CPA seeks to help prevent, defuse, or resolve deadly conflicts around the world and to expand the body of knowledge on conflict prevention.
The Global Conflict Tracker is an interactive guide to the world's conflict zones.