Center for Preventive Action News Releases
Recent data on organized violence shows that conflicts between a state and one or more nonstate armed groups vastly outnumber interstate conflicts. As a result, argues former international affairs fellow Payton L. Knopf in a new CFR Working Paper, the State Department needs clear guidelines as to why, when, and how its diplomats should conduct outreach to these groups.
See more in Nonstate Actors and Nongovernmental Organizations; United States; Terrorism
In this new memoranda series, four CFR fellows focus on crisis triggers, analyze where U.S. and Chinese interests converge and diverge, and present policy options for preventing such crises and mitigating the consequences.
With the U.S. military overstretched and Washington facing acute fiscal pressures, the United States must nurture effective international partnerships to help prevent and manage violent conflicts that threaten U.S. interests, concludes a new Council Special Report from the Center for Preventive Action.
See more in International Organizations and Alliances; Conflict Prevention; Global
“Mexico is in the midst of a worsening security crisis,” warns David A. Shirk, director of the Trans-Border Institute at the University of San Diego, in a new Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Special Report from the Center for Preventive Action. “Explosive clashes and territorial disputes among powerful drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) have killed more than thirty-five thousand people since President Felipe Calderón took office in December 2006.” Estimates place the profits from the drug industry at $30 billion per year—about 3 to 4 percent of Mexico's GDP.
See more in Border and Port Security; Mexico
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See more in Terrorism; Somalia; United States; Politics and Strategy
See more in United States; Conflict Prevention; Defense and Security
See more in North Korea; Conflict Prevention; Proliferation
See more in Congo, Democratic Republic of; Peacekeeping
See more in Israel; Diplomacy and Statecraft; Syria
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See more in Conflict Prevention; Zimbabwe
“Few African countries are more important to U.S. interests than Angola. The second-largest oil producer in Africa, Angola’s success or failure in transitioning from nearly thirty years of war toward peace and democracy has implications for the stability of the U.S. oil supply as well as the stability of central and southern Africa,” finds a Council-sponsored Independent Commission in a report produced by the Center for Preventive Action, Toward an Angola Strategy: Prioritizing U.S.-Angola Relations.
See more in Nation Building; Angola
“For policymakers everywhere, Nigeria should be the central African question. No country’s fate is so decisive for the continent. No other country across a range of issues has the power so thoroughly to shape outcomes elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa. If Nigeria works well, so might Africa. If the democratic experiment in Nigeria stalls, and development and governance stagnate, the rest of Africa suffers and loses hope,” concludes a new Council Special Report.
See more in Nigeria; Elections
“Washington’s reaction to [Evo] Morales’ election, policies, and rhetoric has been to ‘wait and see,’” says a new Council Special Report. “Yet after nearly nine months in office, the Morales administration’s policy agenda has taken shape and, unfortunately, has exacerbated political, ethnic, and racial schisms in Bolivian society.”
See more in Diplomacy and Statecraft; Bolivia
Conflict in the Horn of Africa is escalating rapidly as power struggles within Somalia are exacerbated by military support that both Ethiopia and Eritrea give to the opposing parties there. Ethiopia backs the weak interim government; Eritrea sponsors the Islamic militants fighting to overthrow it. Because the United States has accused Somalia of harboring al-Qaeda suspects, “the Ethiopian-Eritrean proxy conflict increases the opportunities for terrorist infiltration of the Horn and East Africa and for ignition of a larger regional conflict,” warns a new Council Special Report.
See more in Ethiopia; Somalia; Wars and Warfare; Conflict Prevention
“Chávez’s bark...is far worse than his bite,” says a new Council Special Report, which urges U.S. officials to “look beyond his blustery rhetoric…as long as Chávez does not take steps that fundamentally threaten essential U.S. interests in Latin America.” With polls showing Chávez strongly in the lead in the upcoming December 3 Venezuelan presidential election, the United States needs to prepare for another six-year term with the controversial leader.
See more in Diplomacy and Statecraft; Venezuela
Recent deadly clashes between Papuans and Indonesian police, protests against an American copper and gold mining company, and Australia’s controversial granting of asylum to a group of Papuan refugees have brought the issue of autonomy for the remote province of Papua to international attention.
See more in Indonesia; Conflict Assessment