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The Crisis Manager’s Cheat Sheet for 2016

Author: Micah Zenko
ForeignPolicy.com

Micah Zenko highlights the findings of the Center for Preventive Action’s 2016 Preventive Priorities Survey, which identifies plausible sources of conflict or instability and ranks them based on their likelihood of occurring in the coming calendar year and their potential impact on U.S. interests.

See more in Global; Preparedness; Conflict Prevention

The Big Winners of the Iran Nuclear Deal

Author: Micah Zenko
ForeignPolicy.com

Who are the real winners of the Iran nuclear deal? Defense planners in U.S. Central Command and the Pentagon, says Micah Zenko, because “concepts, informal arrangements, and detailed plans that go into defense planning would have all been vastly more difficult, costly, and risky.”

See more in Iran; Treaties and Agreements

America's Virulent, Extremist Counterterrorism Ideology

Author: Micah Zenko
ForeignPolicy.com

There has been a recent shift in America’s counterterrorism ideology, argues Micah Zenko, which accepts the idea that the United States is in a perpetual war with terrorism and fails to recognize that the U.S. counterterrorism policy is failing. “The only ideology that the United States can influence or control is its own.

See more in United States; Counterterrorism

Kill > Capture

Author: Micah Zenko
ForeignPolicy.com

The Obama administration's stated policy since 2011 has been to capture suspected terrorists—such as U.S. citizen Mohanad Mahmoud Al Farekh in Pakistan—rather than target them with drone strikes. However,  as Micah Zenko points out, Al Farekh’s case is the rare exception and, since 2011,  the United States has conducted an estimated 215 drone strikes, killing 1,271 individuals.

See more in United States; Presidents and Chiefs of State; Drones

Make No Mistake — the United States Is at War in Yemen

Author: Micah Zenko
ForeignPolicy.com

The United States is now engaged in yet another military intervention in the Middle East—this time in Yemen. Micah Zenko argues that what has become the standard operating procedure for how the United States goes to war should be alarming, particularly when the latest intervention “lacks clear courses of action, coherent objectives, or an intended end state.”

See more in Yemen; United States; Conflict Assessment

Obama's Bay of Pigs

Author: Micah Zenko
Foreign Policy

The U.S. plan to arm Syrian rebels to fight the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria looks eerily similar to the infamous 1961 failed Bay of Pigs operation. Micah Zenko argues that a clarification of phase two—how the United States will support the armed rebels once they are trained and equipped—is needed before the United States proceeds.

See more in Syria; Defense Strategy; Conflict Assessment