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May 5, 2008
| Author: | Sebastian Mallaby, Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies and Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics |
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Of all the strange features of this presidential race, the tarnishing of Barack Obama has got to be the most ridiculous. In this Washington Post op-ed, Sebastian Mallaby writes that the Obama-Wright "revelations" are really a revelation about our political culture: About its failure to distinguish the important from the trivial and about the inevitability that the race card will eventually be played against a black candidate.
May 2, 2008
| Author: | Amity Shlaes, Senior Fellow for Economic History |
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Hillary Clinton wants a windfall tax to subsidize a summer gas tax holiday for drivers. In this New York Sun article, Amity Shlaes uses the great Windfall-Profit tax of 1980 to demonstrate why we should oppose such a tax. While Mrs. Clinton may believe she's found a political windfall, the plans are so poorly crafted they may prove to be what wipes her out.
April 23, 2008
| Author: | Benn Steil, Senior Fellow and Director of International Economics |
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In this Financial Times op-ed, Benn Steil argues that the Fed's aggressive monetary expansion threatens to undermine its unique powers among central banks, and, if continued, will have damaging consequences for America's future prosperity and global political influence.
April 22, 2008
| Author: | Amity Shlaes, Senior Fellow for Economic History |
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While Pennsylvania happens to be the physical location of the latest contest between Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, in terms of political culture, their duel is situated in Chicago. Amity Shlaes writes that the battle can be viewed as one between two neighborhoods on the Windy City's South Side—the “Daleyesque clout” of Bridgeport and the “liberalism at its best” of Hyde Park. Yet, the Hyde Parker eventually morphs into a Bridgeporter.
April 21, 2008
| Author: | Roger M. Kubarych, Henry Kaufman Adjunct Senior Fellow for International Economics and Finance |
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In this Nikkei article, Roger Kubarych outlines the lessons learned in the past few weeks that will be of lasting importance to global investors. He finds that "too complex to fail" is the prevailing U.S. economic doctrine—with the Bear Stearns bail-out as case in point. Kubarych also argues that banks are capitalists until they need government hand-outs but will revert to type once the crisis fades.
April 21, 2008
| Author: | Sebastian Mallaby, Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies and Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics |
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In this Washington Post op-ed, Sebastian Mallaby argues that while the people falling behind on their mortgages do not deserve government assistance, the threat of a negative spiral in homes prices warrants federal measures to reduce foreclosures. And despite the political candidates who routinely denonuce Washington, the proposals in the House and Senate are by and large sound.
April 17, 2008
| Author: | David G. Victor, Adjunct Senior Fellow for Science and Technology |
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In this Newsweek article, David Victor writes that a large fraction of the world's oil patch is struggling with the same problem that bedevils Mexican President Felipe Calderon: how to make state-owned oil companies—which control about three quarters of the world's oil reserve—more effective at finding and producing oil. With oil output increasing only sluggishly, and demand still strong, oil prices are set to stay high for some time.
April 16, 2008
| Author: | Amity Shlaes, Senior Fellow for Economic History |
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The current economic slowdown has recently been compared to the Great Depression of the 1930s. In this Bloomberg column, Amity Shlaes argues that this analogy is absurd; stocks have not declined nearly as substantially, unemployment is nowhere near 1930s levels, and only one big bank has collapsed. The U.S. simply can’t afford to luxuriate in a Depression image; doing so takes away time from devising policies that would really make the economy more competitive.
April 2008
| Authors: | Amity Shlaes, Senior Fellow for Economic History Gaurav Tiwari, Research Associate |
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In this new CGS Working Paper, the authors find a triangular relationship between oil wealth, entrepreneurial spirit, and friendliness to the United States. They confirm the idea that “oily” countries are not U.S.-friendly, in contrast to smart countries, which are friendly to the United States and do not have oil. The authors conclude that it is in the U.S. interest to support education and economic diversification in petro-states so those states can become more entrepreneurial and friendly.
Read more in this YaleGlobal article.
April 9, 2008
| Author: | Sebastian Mallaby, Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies and Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics |
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Summary
In this update to his January/February 2007 Foreign Affairs essay, Sebastian Mallaby writes that the most striking fact about the ongoing financial mayhem is that it is concentrated not in lightly regulated hedge funds but in more heavily regulated commercial and investment banks. In fact, Mallaby argues that the turmoil since last August has largely vindicated the hedge funds' virtues.
April 8, 2008
| Author: | Roger M. Kubarych, Henry Kaufman Adjunct Senior Fellow for International Economics and Finance |
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Economics wasn’t supposed to be the central theme of this year’s campaign, yet the high probability that the U.S. economy will either be in or just emerging from a mild recession on election day has brought economic issues to the forefront of the race. In this Financial World article, Roger Kubarych looks at the candidates stances on taxes, healthcare, trade, and the housing and associated credit markets. He argues that, in the end, it’s not “the economy, stupid” but “the economy, naturally.”
April 7, 2008
| Author: | Sebastian Mallaby, Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies and Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics |
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In this Washington Post op-ed, Sebastian Mallaby explores the double-bubble theory of the current financial crisis—not only do we face the bursting of a real estate bubble, but we also face the bursting of a second bubble which is the product of a quarter-century expansion in borrowing, excessive confidence in the dollar and an overblown faith in markets. In order to deal with this double-bubble, Mallaby advocates two reforms: bringing complex, “over the counter” securities onto exchanges and requiring lenders to increase capital cushions during market upswings.
April 2, 2008
Benn Steil, Senior Fellow and Director of International Economics interviewed by Lee Hudson Teslik, Assistant Editor
CFR’s Benn Steil examines proposals for a regulatory overhaul of the U.S. financial system put forth by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.
April 2, 2008
| Author: | Matthew J. Slaughter, Adjunct Senior Fellow for Business and Globalization |
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Matthew J. Slaughter argues that our immigration policy keeps out many of the world’s best workers, and as a result threatens America’s competitiveness. The solution? Eliminate the cap on H1-B visas.
March 27, 2008
| Author: | Matthew J. Slaughter, Adjunct Senior Fellow for Business and Globalization |
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Ford Motor Company recently announced it will sell its Jaguar and Land Rover divisions to India's Tata Group. In this Wall Street Journal op-ed Matthew Slaughter argues that such foreign direct investment has long been a source of strength for the American economy. American policy makers should strive to make the U.S. a premier location for the dynamic, high-productivity activities of globally engaged companies—both insourcing companies and U.S. multinationals alike.
March 26, 2008
| Author: | Amity Shlaes, Senior Fellow for Economic History |
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More government is the remedy that the U.S. Congress is reaching for as it moves to evaluate the Bear Stearns Cos. disaster. In this New York Sun article, Amity Shlaes recounts another banking catastrophe, the story of Bank of United States, to show that government involvement can also be a curse—especially when the role of public officials and institutions is unclear.
March 24, 2008
| Author: | Sebastian Mallaby, Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies and Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics |
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One year ago, with spectacular timing, a Wall Streeter named Richard Bookstaber published a book on financial engineering. He called it "A Demon of Our Own Design," and his argument was that a new breed of "quants" had created a system too complex to be manageable. In this Washington Post op-ed, Sebastian Mallaby agrees with Dr. Bookstaber that—in the wake of Bear Stearns—modern financial engineering has become harder to defend.
March 19, 2008
| Author: | Amity Shlaes, Senior Fellow for Economic History |
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Bear Stearns certainly evokes the crash of 1929 and the Great Depression that followed it. Politicians are already making analogies to Herbert Hoover, the demon of that period, and Franklin Roosevelt, the angel. Amity Shlaes argues that while the 1930s do have plenty to tell us, the real challenge isn't deciding who resembles Hoover -- it is figuring out how to avoid a whole era of mistakes.
Listen to Amity Shlaes discuss the comparison between President Bush and Herbert Hoover on American Public Media's Marketplace
March 10, 2008
| Author: | Sebastian Mallaby, Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies and Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics |
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Watching the global economy right now is a bit like watching the lead-up to the Iraq war—the risk presented by a festering threat has to be weighed against the risk inherent in preemptive action. While it's impossible to know whether American activism or European immobility is correct because of the nature of the challenge, Sebastian Mallaby argues that the divergence in approaches on either side of the Atlantic is likely to stoke tensions.
March 7, 2008
| Author: | Benn Steil, Senior Fellow and Director of International Economics |
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In this Wall Street Journal op-ed, Benn Steil argues that Calpers, the California Public Employees' Retirement System, is best viewed as a highly political "sovereign wealth fund." Governed by state political figures and union representatives, Calpers' investment decisions are frequently guided by foreign policy and social agendas rather than fundholder interests.
March 7, 2008
CFR’s Sebastian Mallaby cautions the next U.S. president that “green tariffs” could undermine the legitimacy of the World Trade Organization.
March 5, 2008
| Author: | Amity Shlaes, Senior Fellow for Economic History |
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In a new book, Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz and Linda Bilmes put the cost of the Iraq war at three trillion dollars. Amity Shlaes says that while the book offers a reminder that wars usually cost more than budget figures suggest, the professors are off the mark when it comes to their larger charge that this conflict is necessarily darkening the U.S.'s future.
March 3, 2008
| Author: | Jagdish N. Bhagwati, Senior Fellow for International Economics |
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No Democratic candidate during the primaries can be anything but a protectionist. In this Financial Times op-ed, Jagdish Bhagwati questions whether Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama is likely to be friendlier as president to the cause of multilateral free trade. He finds that the odds are in favour of Mr Obama.
March 2, 2008
| Author: | Sebastian Mallaby, Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies and Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics |
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In this Washington Post op-ed, Sebastian Mallaby argues that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have pushed trade populism beyond the point at which it can be easily forgiven. Presidential primaries always seem to drive Democrats to the left—and this year's primaries have been painfully prolonged, damaging the party's credibility.
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In Regional Monetary Integration, Peter B. Kenen poses an important question: Should various country groups follow the lead of the European Monetary Union and form similar full-fledged monetary unions?
In contrast to conventional wisdom, the growth in government spending and heightened regulation during the Great Depression may have done much to slow economic recovery.
This book explores the currency problems that developing countries face and offers sound, practical advice for policymakers on how to deal with them.
Over the past two decades, another form of economic exchange besides imports and exports has risen to a level of vastly greater significance and political concern: the purchase and sale of financial assets across borders.
Climate change poses threats to national security in a number of ways. In this report, sponsored by the Center for Geoeconomic Studies, Joshua W. Busby offers specific recommendations for confronting this important issue, including a list of "no-regrets" policies.
Existing government programs, which emphasize retraining and insurance for short-term job loss, don't assuage workers' fears about globalization, argues Robert LaLonde in this Council Report.
With IMF Managing Director Rodrigo de Rato resigning in October, a new report analyzes the reform measures that will be bequeathed to Mr. de Rato's successor, and argues that the reform measures deserve the support of the United States, including the U.S. Congress when it is asked to implement some of the key measures.
Gordon Hanson examines the economic logic of low skilled immigration and warns that a rigid temporary worker program will not discourage illegal entrants.
Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.
