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Why Fiscal Stimulus is Likely to Work by Antonio Fatás and Ilian Mihov

Why Fiscal Stimulus is Unlikely to Work by Kevin A. Hassett

The Global Economic Crisis

The world's major economies continue to confront the global financial system's worst crisis in decades. This new Crisis Guide offers an interactive look at the crisis and draws on the insights and recommendations of leading experts.
Geo-Graphics
Imbalances
The early 1990s witnessed trade tensions between the United States and Japan, even though the U.S. current account deficit stood at about 1% of GDP and Japan is a democracy. As our chart shows, the world is now trying to manage much larger imbalances, and two of the major surplus countries are not democracies. Resolving these imbalances may be more difficult because of the dependence on exports in China and Germany, the two leading surplus economies.
Dunaway: Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis
Setser: China’s Difficult Choices
Wolf: It is in Beijing’s Interest to Lend Geithner a Hand
Economist: Global Economic Imbalances

China's Foreign Assets
Many fear that China will not be willing to continue financing the growing deficits of rich countries, particularly that of the U.S. But China must choose between controlling its exchange rate and controlling its dollar purchases.
Mallaby: Beijing's Would-Be Houdinis
Setser, Pandey: China’s $1.5 Trillion Bet
BBC: China’s Foreign Assets Up Sharply

Offsetting Borrowing
Government borrowing has increased sharply, but the fall in private borrowing by households and firms has been equally dramatic. Will the government be able to reduce its borrowing when private borrowing resumes?
Skidelsky: Economists Clash on Shifting Sands
Setser: Fall in Private Borrowing, Rise in Fiscal Deficit
Setser: Who Bought All the Treasuries?

Expert Insight and Commentary

Geoeconomics Working Papers

China's $1.5 Trillion Bet

In this CGS Working Paper, Brad W. Setser and Arpana Pandey estimate the true scale of China's U.S. portfolio and examine how the pace of growth and composition of China's portfolio have evolved over time.

GCC Sovereign Funds

In this CGS Working Paper, Brad W. Setser and Rachel Ziemba examine the impact of the fall in global equities on the Gulf's large funds and explore how various oil price scenarios could shape those funds' future growth.

more

Op-Eds

Deal or No Deal?

Amity Shlaes

Time Magazine

Dallying Democrats Should Outsource Trade Office

Amity Shlaes

Bloomberg.com

Legal Trade Barriers Must Be Kept in Check

Jagdish N. Bhagwati and Arvind Panagariya

Financial Times

Fed’s Dollar Lie Called Out by Victorious Merkel

Amity Shlaes

Expert Briefs

Can China Lift Japan Out of Recession?

CFR International Affairs Fellow Brian P. Klein says that China's stimulus will not have a significant short-term impact on Japan's ailing...

Fight the Fire, then Redesign the Firehouse

While some G-20 leaders want to map out a "New Deal for the Twenty-First Century," CFR's Stewart Patrick says they risk spawning a...

Davos, the Poor, and the Crash of '08

CFR Senior Fellow Laurie Garrett says the recent Davos economic forum failed to provide any blue print for reconciling the financial crisis...

Africa Dodges the Financial Bullet, but Recession Is Another Matter

CFR's J. Anthony Holmes writes that the global economic decline will slow the pace of both foreign direct and portfolio investment in...

CGS Resources

Experts
CGS Fellows with an expertise in international finance.

Roger M. Kubarych

Henry Kaufman Adjunct Senior Fellow for International Economics and Finance

Brad W. Setser

Fellow for Geoeconomics

Amity Shlaes

Senior Fellow for Economic History

Benn Steil

Senior Fellow and Director of International Economics

Council Special Reports

The Canadian Oil Sands

Michael A. Levi

Council Special Report No. 47

May 2009

Lessons of the Financial Crisis

Benn Steil

Council Special Report No. 45

March 2009

Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis

Steven Dunaway

Council Special Report No. 44

March 2009

Sovereign Wealth and Sovereign Power

Brad W. Setser

Council Special Report No. 37

September 2008

Global FDI Policy

David M. Marchick and Matthew J. Slaughter

Council Special Report No. 34

June 2008

Geoeconomics Working Papers

Food Price Inflation

In this Working Paper, Karen H. Johnson explains the causes of food-price inflation, and analyzes the implications for central banks, trade negotiators, and agricultural policy.

more

Books

Money, Markets, and Sovereignty

Benn Steil and Manuel Hinds present a fascinating intellectual history of monetary nationalism from the ancient world to the present and explore why, in its modern incarnation, it represents the single greatest threat to globalization.

The Closing of the American Border

Edward Alden goes behind the scenes to tell the story of the Bush administration's struggle to balance security and openness in the wake of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

Termites in the Trading System

Jagdish Bhagwati argues preferential trade agreements are protectionist discriminatory, and put the world trading system at risk.
CGS Chart Books
CGS: Foreign Exchange Reserves in the BRICs
CGS: Economic Cycle

Squam Lake Papers
Proposals on financial reform from 15 economists.
A Systemic Regulator
Regulatory Hybrid Securities
Reforming Capital Requirements
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Launch this interactive.

CFR Events

Audio, Video, Transcripts

Reflections on Economic Policy in a Time of Crisis

June 12, 2009, New York

National Economic Council Director Lawrence H. Summers speaks at CFR about economic policy during the financial crisis. This session was...

Reforming Global Finance: The Squam Lake Papers

May 26, 2009, Washington D.C.

Members of the Squam Lake Working Group on Financial Regulation, a collection of fifteen leading economists and academics, discuss their...

Reforming Global Finance: The Squam Lake Papers (Audio)

May 26, 2009

Listen to members of the Squam Lake Working Group on Financial Regulation, a collection of fifteen leading economists and academics, discuss...

McKinsey Executive Roundtable Series in International Economics: Reforming the IMF: Is Bigger Better, and Who Should Get More Say? (Video)

May 22, 2009

Watch experts discuss the future of the International Monetary Fund, ranging from its governance to its potential role in alleviating...

more

Blogs

Blog -- Brad Setser: Follow the Money

The CFR’s financial crisis guide
July 3, 2009

“A more balanced economy might allow the world to live with a less perfect financial system”
July 2, 2009

One graph to rule them all …
July 1, 2009

The savings glut. Controversy guaranteed.
June 30, 2009

The evolution of the United States’ external balance sheet in the last decade (wonky)
June 28, 2009

The 2008 US net international investment position: Without valuation gains, debt is rising
June 26, 2009

more

Amity Shlaes: The Forgotten Man

The Man Who Talked Back….
May 11, 2009

Ohanian lays it out….
April 14, 2009

Columbus Dispatch’s Torry
April 5, 2009

G-20: Those Who Cannot Remember Past Conferences….
March 25, 2009

Obama’s Transcendent Moment
March 21, 2009

more

Foreign Affairs

The G-2 Mirage

Elizabeth C. Economy and Adam Segal

Deng Undone

Derek Scissors

State Capitalism Comes of Age

Ian Bremmer

Farm Futures

Catherine Bertini and Daniel P. Glickman

CGS Newsletter

Subscribe to "This Month in Geoeconomics" newsletter.

CGS Home

Many fear that China will not be willing to continue financing the growing deficits of rich countries, particularly that of the U.S. But China must choose between controlling its exchange rate and controlling its dollar purchases.

Government borrowing has increased sharply, but the fall in private borrowing by households and firms has been equally dramatic. Will the government be able to reduce its borrowing when private borrowing resumes?

Expert Insight and Commentary

CGS Resources

CGS Fellows with an expertise in international finance.

CGS Chart Books

Proposals on financial reform from 15 economists.

CFR Events

Blogs

CGS Newsletter